THE TRUMP "CRASH AND BURN" TRAIN WRECK - A FATAL, HISTORIC BUST - WITH DONALD DRIVING THE TRAIN...

   

NOTE:  14 DECADES OF THE US ECONOMIC SYSTEM SUFFERED THE LARGEST LOSS IN GDP SINCE 1880!

Reports today from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that history was made in the 2020 2nd Quarter!  A new, first time record of an ECONOMIC CRASH was achieved by Team Trump with a DECREASE IN GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by 1/3.... 33%!  This is the highest annualized economic loss - since the data has been recorded in 1880!  Unlike the Trump announcements that the US Economy is recovering with an expansion of jobs and opportunity, instead, the US Bureau of labor announced yet another 1.4 million NEW UNEMPLOYMENT APPLICATIONS ere filed last week.  This comes on top of the week before reporting another 1.4 million jobs lost.  More than 40 million lost were lost since the start of this year - 2020. Today's announcement records a new - and painful - record of economic "blood in the streets."  Compared to the Great Depression GDP decrease of 28.6%, this 2nd Quarter loss of 32.9% is worse.  

RECENT CHART DISPLAYING 2016-2020 - TRUMP DAYS BY QUARTER... 

This chart reports a more recent record of the progression of the GDP Quarterly reports from 2016 - the last presidential election year - to this quarter 2020.  Note the curve visible above in 2018 - once the Trump policies, trade wars, arguments with allies, and withdrawal from the Far East Trade Agreements and more. 

WESTERN/EASTERN HEMISPHERE CRIPPLED

Numbers shrink in 2018 as farming sales decrease and bankruptcies go through the roof.  Employment hangs on - barely - but the manufacturing piece barely survives as Trump attacks Europe, NATO, Latin America over immigration, and nations in the Far East. Come the viral "invasion" - ignored by Trump who sold snake oil through his ignorance and against advice and counsel, the economy tumbles.  The First Quarter of 2020 falls by 5%.... and the Second Quarter CRASHES BY 33% - 1/3 OF THE GDP EVAPORATES!  This economic shock is four times the worst quarter during the Great Recession and the sharpest economic contraction in modern American history! And, with yet another 1.4 million Americans filing for unemployment last week! And, another 829,000 jobless workers filed for support through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Program for contractors and gig workers not typically covered by traditional unemployment insurance. the Bureau of Economic Analysis notes that "economic fallout was driven by a decline in consumer spending." Let's take a look....

*Spending on goods and services PLUNGED at an annual rate of 35% - a record.

*Investments in Buildings, Equipment, Intellectual Property:  DOWN 49%.

*Exports of American Production:  Farming and Manufactured: DOWN 64%.

*Farming Bankruptcies: Set a new national record. 

*Corona Virus Data:    4.5 million cases logged;
                                      153,000+ deaths to date - 4 times the lives lost in 10 years Viet Nam. 
                                      Increased viral rates in 30 states; hospital overload. 

          THE INITIAL NATIONAL PLAN: THREE STEPS TO ECONOMIC RECOVERY.

Step 1: Support businesses and corporations through grant and forgivable loans so that they can remain afloat and keep their employees funded and alive as fuel for the economy.

Step 2: Support those with unavoidable job loss, layoff, or un-paid furlough through extended unemployment, a supplemental benefit of $600 a week, a one-time payment of $1200 per person, and create a separate fund to support others in construction and more who are not engaged in standard unemployment - a Pandemic Assistance Fund. Taken together with Step 1, these will maintain the "bubble up" consumer spending that drives almost 70% of the economy. 

Step 3: Invest in developing cures and a vaccine. Currently underway, funded, and long horizon. 

The goal of all of this is to maintain the underpinning of the GDP - consumer spending - the lifeblood of the US Economy. And, keep the Stock Market well fueled and rising. In theory, families were empowered to pay the rent and buy groceries.  The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, "it has kept people in their home. It has kept business in business." Corporations and large employers kept afloat, and the Stock Market survived - so far. Sadly, as the number of Covid19 cases increased, ER space shrinks, and and the number of deaths rise. Cures/vaccines are not in sight.

WHAT IS THE CURRENT PLAN? 

THE TRUMP COGNITIVE TEST

With 1/3 of the economy going up in viral "smoke" today, what can we do?  What should we do? In the Great Depression of the 1920s-30s - a century ago - the nation experienced an even less painful loss. Our recovery then took us more than a decade...and the addition of many economic stimulus initiatives to bring the nation back from the brink of complete collapse.  Add to a substantial change in social supports and job expansion through both public and private sector expansions, World War II - the largest single combat period and loss of life in history - pulled US unemployed men off of the bread lines, employed their wives in factories in support of gearing up for the war with necessary materials and equipment, and re-tooling America's manufacturing base to support our military and the armies of our allies in Europe and in Asia as well. After the war period, we adjusted to the return of millions of our troops through Veterans Aid in education, health care, and housing supports as well as the return of their wives to their shared homes to raise the "baby boomers" conceived after the war.  That left vacant positions that needed the Veterans to fill the jobs the new Moms left behind. School, work, and fatherhood helped rebuild the nation! So, learning lessons of economic adjustment and building a massive increase in a new middle class from those who marched in bread lines, in military training, and on the front lines, what do we do now against a backdrop of an unemployment rate exceeding the Great Depression and a shrinkage of GDP of 1/3 - 4% points higher than the dark days of the early 1930s? 

TRUMP TRAINER REPEATING HIS "TEST" ANSWERS 

Right now, the Trump/McConnell plan is nowhere. Although the Pelosi-led Democratic House adopted a full plan 2 months ago - the Heroes Act, McConnell has refused to post it for a US Senate vote to date.  In fact, he has not been able to craft a Republican Senate plan with Trump's support so far. Trump, on the other hand, tweets,  greets, briefs, and eats.  Oh... he takes "important tests" too... and plans for the election.... Once McConnell drafts the Republican Plan, he will need to sit down with the House Democrats to negotiate a package that may be able to be adopted and sent to the White House for Trump's signature.  Time will tell....

Turn the clock back to the last economic collapse and the debate that took place in the late 1920s and the 1930s - the Great Depression.  With Republican Conservative Herbert Hoover in charge, the post Stock Market collapse depression went unaddressed.  The Democrats, on the other hand, were proposing a series of protection and recovery plans in the Presidential Election of 1932 and crushed Hoover and the Republicans , gaining control of the White House and the Congress as well.  During his first 100 days, FDR crafted new initiatives and numerous Executive Orders that crafted the New Deal aimed at relief, recovery, and reform.  Primary objectives were to ignite jobs with the CCC and WPA, encourage the recovery of manufacturing and farming, and to protect those in desperate need with Social Security.  With Ration Books, support for Soup Kitchens, and expanded infrastructure jobs via the Civilian Conservation Corps and the Work Progress Administration, FDR literally "invented" a bottom-up, bubble-up economic platform that led a recovery for the first several years.  In 1937 and 38 we slipped backward into a recession and by 1939 to the 1940 election the the New Deal was expanded into additional programs. Organized under the National Recovery Administration (NRA), the "New Deal" launched. Banking and financial relief included the Federal Emergency Relief Organization, the Emergency Banking Act, the Recovery Finance Corporation, the FDIC, FTC, and the SEC. Labor related agencies included the NLRB, FLSA, and job intensive PWA, WPA, CCC, and the Agricultural Adjustment Administration to name a few. Re-building from the bottom up was the foundation of the New Deal programs.  The secondary basis and goal of this initiative was to grow the demand-side of the economic equation and cause an necessary increase in supply.  That would grow the economy and the GDP as consumers grew as did their purchasing power.  Come the Second World War, manufacturing demands hit the roof and jobs grew in the millions - fast - along with the demand for troops.

FAST FORWARD TO TODAY.  What is the lesson to be learned? Simply put.... bubble up, not trickle down....  Address the cause - in this case, the viral "invasion" by a battle to defeat the invaders!  Invest, recruit, insist and persist in developing a cure and a vaccine to prevent a recurrence of the Corona-19 virus. Repair the wrecked economy through empowering working families to pay the rent or the mortgage, pay the bills, buy groceries, purchase needed materials, machines, and autos, pay for education and more.  All this through short-term financial support and growing economic opportunity and jobs through needed investments. First stop - INFRASTRUCTURE REPAIR AND EXPANSION.  Learn from the CCC, WPA, and PWA that jobs - and pay - help uplift our people and inject new income and skill development into our economic fabric - the assets that our economy needs to resume and recover.  The more you invest, the faster we will grow as consumer demand increases.  The greater the demand, the more supply is needed.  The greater the supply needs are, the more business expansion will occur and the more job opportunity will grow.  With job growth comes more demand and need... etc, etc, etc.

It's time.  As in the election of 1932....  we must remove the blockage that prevents progress.  We must defeat those who stand in the way of our recovery.  We must take charge, make change, cure our ills, and rebuild.  

TRUMP AS A GRADE SCHOOL STUDENT

Tick-tock.....   November, 2020.    

Bobby J

TRUMP RIDING THE COVID19 ROLLERCOASTER.... AND PUTTING HEALTHCARE AND LIFE AT RISK....

Headlines of the last two days are unsettling..... Let's recall...yesterday and today...

July 7th and July 8th.

1. US SURPASSES 3 MILLION COVID19 CASES. July 8, 2020.

Citing this grim milestone, the virus surges in more than half the states in the nation. The US sent a new one-day record at 60,000 new cases... and Dr. Fauci comments that it could rise to more than 100,000 a day if we do not act! Dr Birx said that states ignored guidelines put in place by federal and state public health officials and "stepped on the gas" while re-opening, causing this new viral surge. In the meanwhile, Pence announced that Trump opposes the CDC - issued rules and we should expect some "new and revised" recommendations come next week. Trump called on the DOH to "slow down tests" because the data makes him look bad...... and "makes the pandemic look worse than it is." Dr. Gerald at the University of Arizona responded to the Trump "Magic" theory.... Dr Gerald commented, "I don't think that we can bury our heads in the sand and pretend that it is not there, and we would wake up magically and it will be gone."

One of the cautions in the CDC Guidelines relates to the opening of schools. Just yesterday, States were asked about plans to "open" schools - local districts and colleges - come August-September. Planning is underway, including some remote learning, some on-site, open-air sessions with social distance and masks. Trump and Betsy DeVos have BOTH threatened school districts and colleges that they will withhold financial assets if they do not fully open by September - all students, all classes. Does Trump and DeVos really want to corral the next generation - from grade school to college - into a viral "incubator?" The Trump Tulsa rally led to dozens or hundreds of infections.... Is "Incubating" in schools, threatening teachers and families, and sending an army of loved ones back home as millions of viral "carriers" to be hugged and to spread the Covid19 throughout the nation a good plan? What do you think? Should this rapid virus invasion be referred to as "Trump Fever?" Maybe "DeVos Dengue?"

Just STOP testing!:  TRUMP

2) ARIZONA RANKS #1 COMPARED TO ALL OTHER NATIONS. July 8, 2020.

Arizona, Florida, and South Carolina LED THE WORLD in new cases over the last 7 days, according to the NY Times release of data. Florida - the planned site of the Republican Presidential Convention - has run out of beds in their hospital intensive care units but the Trump-supporting Republican Governor downplays the challenge and the resulting spread. A NEW DAILY RECORD HAS BEEN SCORED IN 5 STATES! AND, THE CASE COUNT ROSE 72% IN TWO WEEKS! OUCH!!!

States and nations with the WORST OUTBREAKS IN THE LAST 7 DAYS, adjusted for size of population (per million residents), follows: Arizona leads the new-case pack at 3300 cases per million followed by Florida @ 2,700 per million, and South Carolina @ 2,300 per million. The 4th is Bahrain @ 2,200 per million, and then Louisiana @ 2,000 per million. Of the top 10 nations or states that are suffering a violent outbreak, 7 of the 10 are US States. Aside from the top four listed above, the others are Alabama, Nevada, and Mississippi, closely followed by Texas, Georgia and Tennessee.

Hmmmm... notice what these many states have in common? All Red-led... and all in the Trump pit... and, like lemmings, on their way to the cliff's edge....

3) SO, THE QUESTION IS: WHY HERE- the US??? 7.7.20

The answer lies in the Oval Office and a psychotic President with his finger on the "switch."

Schools in Japan and much of Europe have re-opened, Iceland restaurants are busy and in South Korea, the baseball season is underway. The two main ways that the virus was battled to a stand-still and the prevention of major outbreaks has been: 1. An aggressive initial response including travel restrictions, tests, contact tracing, quarantining, and masks. 2. Lockdown and then a careful, cautious, and slowly staged and monitored re-opening. They all cope with some pockets of new cases but the numbers remain small. Quite different from Trump play.

By comparison, the man behind the curtain - and on the brink of an election - has declared "victory", prematurely scheduled "whistle-stop" campaign gatherings - indoors, crunched together, no social distance, and without masks. He waved a magic wand announcing that the economy is BACK! Never-mind that another 1.3 million filed for unemployment just now.... bringing the total jobs lost count to more than 50 million! Instead, take credit for the 4 million called back to work last month... leaving more than 45 million adrift and at risk....The "inventor" of "fake news" has upstaged those media sources that he criticizes... Trump has taken center stage as the biggest CONMAN on view, selling "snake-oil" across the nation. This time, we all should recognize his dilemma, his plan, his lying, his ignorance, and the dangers that he represents for the entire nation. Avoid being "bitten" by the American snake.Time to go.......

Tick-tock... November, 2020

Bobby J

WAKEY, WAKEY.......TIME TO WAKE UP........

WAKEY, WAKEY..............

SHOCKING, isn't it......  You know.....   The headlines... the TV reports....  what you hear on the radio... local and state government announcements.....  It seems that this nation is on the "eve of destruction" (Barry McGuire, 1965).  If I had to hit your nose ring with a 9-volt battery to get your attention and "wake you up", I would do so....  FIREWORKS!  Welcome to the 4th of July.......

244 Years ago, this nation was given birth in the city of Philadelphia with the signing and announcement of the Declaration of independence on July 4th.  Reflecting the belief that "all men are created equal", the Declaration reasons that separating from a government "when a long train of abuses and usurpations evidencing a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their RIGHT, it is their DUTY, to throw off such a government."

In making their case, the signors from every Colony - now each a declared State - listed a series of reasons for their rejection and separation from King George and England.  Here are a few quoted from the document:  

  * "He has refused his ascent to Laws...";
  * "He has forbidden his Governors to pass laws of immediate and pressing importance...";
  * "He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of... districts of people...";
  * "He has obstructed the Administration of Justice...";
  * "He has made Judges dependent on his will alone..."; 
  * "Cutting off our trade with ... parts of the world..." cost us many jobs;

Other reasons are also listed leading to the point that the public has "Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is UNFIT TO BE THE RULER OF A FREE PEOPLE." As a consequence, they declared independence from England, the creation of a new nation/state, and pledged to "each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor."   In Congress Assembled, July 4, 1776. Philadelphia.

WELCOME TO THE 4TH OF JULY CELEBRATION !

This is a moment of history and pride in our nation.  And, along with the US Constitution that replaced the Articles of Confederation in 1789 - after the Revolution was won and the initial inter-state agreement was too unclear for the first decade of the free United States. These documents formed the basis in law, in belief, and in practice - the model democracy that has served the globe for centuries. 

Does all of the above sound familiar?  The complaints/  The whining? The reasons for separation? 

ON THIS DAY.....  IT IS TIME TO WAKE UP!!!!

244 years ago, King Donald behavior would have resulted in the very same "declaration" and the removal of this "Autocrat", "Dictator", and "Monarch"- Psycho at the DC switch - Donald Trump.  Here we stand on a day celebrated with re-commitment to the basis of our democracy, not its destruction.  Not a President who ignores the rule of law... who obstructs justice as recently revealed by Bolden, who, along with Moscow Mitch, controls 200+ judges he appointed as well as Attorney General Barr - a "Jester" for the Monarch. Investigate and pursue those opposed. And, intervene, eliminate guilty pleas/convictions, blunt punishing sentencing, and pardon friends and supporters. Is "Trumpology" justice for all??? Or, pardons for Trump supporters, and prosecution of opponents? Did he learn this from Putin? 

Trump's refusal to lead - by example or action - a national response to COVID19 that has seized the US, is seeing a rapid case rising in 2 of 3 states across the nation as a PANDEMIC while he fiddles and blames China for the virus "spread". Even worse, Trump calls mask-less thousands into his "Rallies", slows testing to hide the extent of his failure to lead and to act, and, instead, pretends - even today - that the virus and its contagion will simply disappear.... when he waves his magic wand....  Maybe that "wand" is a DECREASE in COVID19 testing??? And, a "finding" that the numbers are magically reducing!  Nonsense.... and a threat to life across the 30 Republican-led states that prematurely re-opened on Trump's instructions and are paying the price in illness and death. So, what is the Republican response to the viral "invasion?"  To making sure that the states - burdened with the task to craft their own responses - go unfunded and, according to McConnell, choose bankruptcy? 

Trump claims "success" in an economy that was not protected from the illness impact and suffered a job loss and unemployment of 42,000,000 Americans? Trump and Pence patted themselves on the back yesterday for a monthly recovery of 4.8 million jobs.... with 37 million still abandoned?  They offered more financial support to corporations... but none to states or working families, or the unemployed? Providing medical coverage for Americans while under siege by COVID19? Loading hospital emergency rooms and intensive care facilities with virus victims? Many victims of a layoff lost employer health coverage, and Trump and company are at the same time, attempting to destroy the ACA (Obamacare) before the Supreme Court!  DC Democrats - Nancy Pelosi, Charlie Schumer, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Democratic Governors - Cuomo (NY), Newsom (CA), Murphy (NJ), Whitmer (Mich) and others dig in, fight the virus back, and protect Medicare and Medicaid as well as the ACA. Compared to the Red Governor - led states, as well as McConnell and other DC Republicans, Dems are protecting those in trouble and are working to defend those in need. The Rs should stop blindly following Trump, remove their dark glasses, and see the road to a better, healthy, and prosperous future. If they don't, then the American Voters will...... that includes you!

Today, we are just 4 months - almost to the day - to the 21st Century American Independence choice.  This near-term "battle" is in the ballot box come November 3, 2020 - either by mail-in ballot or standing in line to vote wearing a mask and defending against infection with social distance.  You have seen the reports on voting in Primary elections across the nation, some still underway.... so, you know what is coming.  Given his behavior, as reported in books and headlines - Bolton's new book last week and Trump's niece publishing a complete exposure of family history next week to name just two - Trump's support is eroding, sometimes slowly and other times rapidly. Frequent polling has revealed an erosion of support - in the senior community, rural and suburban voters, women, well educated folks, and working families.  Those who feel threatened by virus inaction and denial while Trump ignores the growth of cases day by day, wants testing reduced, and wants to eliminate the CDC, Dr. Berx and Dr. Fauci too. Monarch Trump criticizes state-based efforts to control the illness and the threat to our well-being. He wants to re-open and re-call people to work to take credit for job growth.  Credit?  Furlough, layoffs, terminating others, failure of unemployment, folks facing eviction and loss of home, schools closed, beaches closed, bars, restaurants, and more. Sure, we would all prefer that we go back to normal.... But, we DO NOT want to become sick and die on the altar of a Trump re-elect. 

Republicans and Democrats alike oppose Trump's re-election

In case you have not noticed, Republican and Democratic Presidents - still witnessing the "Rule" of Trump - are all encouraging you to vote AGAINST TRUMP come November 3rd - 4 months out.  Other Republicans in the headlines and as members of the "LINCOLN PROJECT" Republicans not supporting Trump include both Bush Presidents, Colin Powell, Mitt Romney, George Conway (Kellyanne's husband), Bill Kristol, Steve Schmidt, Rick Davis, Jen Horn and many others.  Some have endorsed Biden, and others announced their opposition to Trump...The beat goes on - Tick-tock.

So, here we are.... the Fourth of July... a celebration of the American Democracy!  This is taking place against the backdrop of the gradual destruction of our democracy.  Our health is under attack... as is our health care....  Our economy is under attack .... by abandoning our allies, disrupting international trade, and building an unnecessary southern wall. Last week we lost the ability to visit the European Union and their 27 member nations... due to our failure as a Trump-led nation to successfully respond to the COVID19 invasion.  Our economy teeters on the brink against that backdrop, as we slowly re-open and re-close...  bring back employees and lay them off once again... Trump has refused to act, leading others to refuse to take immediate action, slow testing and data collection, interfere in and obstruct/control "justice", eliminate healthcare, and destroy jobs and the environment through absurd Executive Orders.....  It is time to go.

Come next week.... Engage, Speak Out, Resist, Persist, and March On to November - just 4 months. Follow the 1776 Declaration of Independence by declaring our reasons to shed a disastrous government this fall. In 1776 it took 4 years. In 2020, it will take just 4 months! We can save our democracy in just weeks of effort with the defeat of the monster at the DC switch, Donald Trump.

  

TIME TO ACT! 

TIME TO EVICT TRUMP FROM THE WHITE HOUSE! 

TIME TO WAKE UP!!!!

Wakey, Wakey...

Bobby J