I have become more and more concerned over the last month or so. Not because I think that Donald Trump - with all of his conspiracy theory-based beliefs, racism, sexism, cracked theories on foreign policy and the world order, admiration for Putin, etc., etc. - will get elected President of the United States, but because I am seeing a slow but sure demolition of our democracy. Let me explain.
Donald Trump is a builder of buildings. We all know that. He grew up in the industry and learned the business from his Dad. As anyone can realize, the first step in the building process is -DEMOLITION - tear down before you build up. I have come to believe that Trump fully intends to do just that - but, this time, in the business of government. That explains his attacks on "the establishment", the press and the media, Democrats and Republicans alike, office holders like Paul Ryan, heroes like John McCain, and virtually every media outlet - conservative or liberal - that has not enthusiastically towed the Trump line. Like a train wreck, he has castigated his opponents, attacked those groups - political, racial, ethnic, gender-based, economic, academics, age-based, etc - who do not display their fealty to the Trump brand. He is always right, never wrong, and those who disagree must be demolished. Donald - the Demolition Man. This is a very real danger.
Trump, ever the master of conspiracies and cracked theories, and, always the "outsider" working to take down the "establishment" (read Party leaders, Beltway insiders, the media, and everyone else not named Trump), has undertaken a continuing line attacking "the system" and describing the electoral process as "rigged." He has called legitimate polls - even those of the conservative Wall Street Journal and Fox - "rigged" and a fraud. The Trump campaign contends that these are all flawed and "rigged" to show Trump in a bad light or they are no more than a reflection of the "dishonest" media (read, all media). Last week, Trump himself noted that he could not lose Pennsylvania unless illegal voting took place in "certain places" (read, urban areas and minority districts) and called on his supporters to vote and then descend on these "districts" and make sure that the election is not "stolen" through vote fraud (maybe they will all wear brown shirts so they can identify each other during the polling place fist fights). Trump's claim flies in the face of every recent poll taken in Pennsylvania that has Hillary ahead of the Donald by double digits - a spread that he is unlikely to be able to overcome. So, why does Trump claim that Pennsylvania is a sure win?
Also, last week Trump claimed that the entire national election was being "rigged." Never-mind that a Presidential election is really 50 state-based elections added together in the form of state "electoral votes" and that each state determines its own rules for the election, conducts the election on voting day, and certifies the results - lest we forget Bush v Gore. Forgetting that there are more states governed by Republicans than Democrats in 2016, the Donald somehow thinks that some nation-wide conspiracy exists with the singular goal being to deny him the Presidency (one can only hope...). Evidently, should he win, then the election is "legitimate." Should Hillary be elected, the election would be "rigged" and she would not be the legitimate President of the United States. Maybe he would conclude that Hillary conspired with Ted Cruz, John Kasich, the Bush family, and Mitt Romney to commit massive and nation-wide voter fraud to "rig" the election and elect Hillary. In that case, as Trump recently suggested, maybe the "Second Amendment People could do something about it." And, if they don't ...well, what then? Sit back? Go on vacation? Take pot-shots from the sidelines? Does that sound like the Donald that we have come to know? Or, do you think that he would continue his "movement" to tear down and de-legitimize the government that we elect this fall? Will there be a Trump "call to arms"? And, would that be simply a Hillary political resistance movement? Or, would the "arms" be actual weaponry? Are we really this close to a national nightmare? "Oh", you say.... "it really cannot happen here." Those sorts of things happen in distant places like Latin America or some backwaters in the Middle East (Arab Spring) or in the streets of less stable European countries. You mean all of those places that do not have right-wing "militias" practicing war games in the backwoods of most states and do not have more guns than people spread around their neighborhoods?
These Trump psycho behaviors and attitudes would be merely amusing if Donald was some third party whack-job out in space who missed his daily dose of Thorazine. But, right now, this guy - crazy theories and all - is just one step away from the Presidency and the nuclear "football." And, at the same time, virtually every week he is slowly but surely de-legitimizing the national government. So, what does he hope to "build" in its place, you ask. The answer appears to be government by Trump edict - an oligarchy of the Trump family - with new controls on the press and public comment courtesy of "reformed" libel laws, and numerous appointees to the US Supreme Court to back it up.
Perhaps it will all be enforced by Trump's new Attorney General, "Lock-Her-Up" Chris Christie, himself about to be indicted for his part in the NY/NJ Port Authority George Washington Bridge scam, while our new Secretary of State, Paul Manafort, dissolves NATO and re-draws the map of Eastern Europe with Putin allies in Moscow - the site of the newest Trump Tower.
Donald Trump has created chaos this election year. First, for the Republican Party. Next, by unleashing and the legitimizing of electoral violence at his rallies. Now, he is undermining the very pillars of our two hundred plus years of political stability - the election process itself - in an attempt to dismiss Clinton's election, should she defeat him in November. But, why? The only answer can be that should Trump go down to defeat in the fall of 2016, he intends to take yet another "tower" down with him - a tower of hope and freedom that has been the envy of the world for more than 2 centuries - the American democratic process and the peaceful transfer of power that occurs here every 4 or 8 years. And, should that happen, pray for peace... and may god save us all.
Monday, August 22, 2016
Wednesday, August 10, 2016
HERE WE GO AGAIN.... TRUMPONOMICS AND TRICKLE DOWN
It is often said that the definition of insanity is doing the very same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome. Not only is Donald Trump altogether an unhinged and dangerous narcissist, his "golden spoon", regal upbringing has provided him with a view of the world of "us" versus "them", entitlement for the wealthy (after all, they wouldn't be the upper 1% wealthy but for their superior intellectual power and creativity), and a condescending attitude toward the "other" (the rest of us). Trump's cracked view of reality and psychotic mental state cannot help but to reveal itself on a daily basis. Sometimes it is through his comments during the election dialogue such as his often-stated conspiracy theory-based comments an.d, sometimes, through his loose comments encouraging violence against others. Especially disturbing is Trump's recent comments directed at Hillary. His absurd and alternative reality suggestion that she would appoint Supreme Court Justices that would "abolish the Second Amendment" (which would take a super-majority vote of both Houses of Congress AND the ratification of three quarters of state legislatures) if elected President could not be prevented..... "nothing could be done", he said. He paused and then continued...although ... she could be stopped by the "2nd Amendment people, I don't know." Clearly, this is a lightly veiled suggestion that an assassination of the President of the United states might very well be necessary, should Hillary get elected and be in a position to appoint judges. Although he has tried to "spin" these comments into some political strategy of get-out-the-vote activism, the statement's underlying assumption is that Hillary was elected President. Too late for GOTV. It seems, in the Psycho Trump alternative reality, there is but one alternative left... and it isn't pretty. More and more Republicans are squirming in their seats today....
But, the BIG news of the day was intended to be the new and improved Trump Economic Plan (TEP).
With a group of Economic "advisers" that include many hedge-fund billionaires and, strangely, many named "Steve", the "presidential Trump" read the plan for those who would listen. The stated goal of the TEP is to lift up those who have been left behind by the recovery - the under-served, underemployed, and unemployed working families and middle class folks who, unlike the top 1% of the wealthy class who won big during the current recovery, have not seen their incomes increase or their job opportunities blossom in the same period. Instead, they have seen income inequality skyrocket over the last 7 years to proportions not seen since before the end of the 19th century during the age of industrialists like Carnegie, Rockefeller, Mellon, Gould, and others. I am sure that Trump counts himself in the same class as these mega-rich folks of the past and that explains why his penthouse tower decor is covered in gold leaf. Louis XIV would be proud.
And, who does Trump blame for the current disparity? Why, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and President Obama, of course. Never-mind that Bill Clinton inherited a failed economy and recession from Supply-sider George Bush I ("it's the economy, stupid"), with massive deficits and that President Obama inherited the worst US recession in history from Supply-sider George Bush II, with massive deficits and 10% unemployment. Bill Clinton IS to blame - for the strongest recovery in decades and the largest job growth on record - some 20,000,000 new net jobs during his Presidency. How did Bill do it? By building from the bottom up, fueled by a tax increase on the wealthy with tax credits and social supports for those of modest means - a "bubble up" model. Bill and Hillary Clinton refused to stand by on the sidelines of history while other Americans struggled, so they went into battle and have the scars to prove it. Were their mistakes made? Of course, but standing idly by was not and option then - and isn't an option now.
And, President Obama, with Congressional Republicans opposing any proposal whatsoever to assist in the rebuilding of the economy and sinking proposals to expand education and opportunity on a broad basis, nevertheless, got down to the business of lifting the economy up. In the end, the unemployment rate was cut in half - from 10% to under 5%, and the deficits significantly reduced as well. Obama has argued that investments in education, research, job training, and in necessary infrastructure projects across America, would lift up working men and women everywhere and set the stage for future economic well-being as well. His call for action fell on deaf ears in the Republican-controlled halls of Congress, With Tea Party banners unfurled, talk-radio bombast on high, and supply-side economics demanding tax cuts for the wealthy (as though they need it), the Obama call to arms fell on deaf ears. This recovery, while a significant reversal of the economic disaster that he inherited from Bush II, was uneven and disproportionately benefited the top income tiers in the US. Calls for a tax increase on excess wealth - corporate or personal - suffered legislative death by a thousand cuts. Looking back over the last 30 years and more, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and Obama, each time that the supply-siders were in charge, the economy went into a serious tailspin. The tax-cuts provided to the "job-creators" so that the benefits would "trickle down" to the rest of us and lift all boats, only added to the federal deficits piled up during those periods, especially added to the out-sized expenses of the Gulf Wars, I and II. So, is there any surprise that wealth concentration in the very top 1% and the one-tenth of 1 % grew and earning disparities between the wealthy and the middle and working classes grew into a chasm? So, the stage is set for the TEP - the trump Economic Plan.
The Trump solution to income disparity? Trumponomics, of course. And, once again, massive tax breaks for the top earners, like himself and his family, and massive tax cuts for corporations. This is "trickle-down" and "Supply Side" on steroids. The Trump solution to growing income inequality in the US is to give big tax breaks to... the top 1%! And, just to sweeten the pot a bit, eliminate the current Estate Tax which only impacts individuals who leave more than $5.5 million ti their heirs ($11 million for couples). But, his supporters would say, how about the child care tax credit? Hmmmm..... I do support a child care tax credit, but Trump describes his proposal as a "tax deduction" meaning a deduction from earned income, and not a credit against taxes due. So, here is a question - who costs more, a full-time nanny for the kids or a babysitter? Which families can afford which child care scenario? Who earned enough to pay significant taxes and could benefit more from a tax "deduction" as opposed to a tax "credit"? How much of cost of these tax breaks will "trickle down" to working families or the middle class?
On the corporate side, Trump proposes that all corporations be taxed the same at 15%. The result would be the lowest tax rate of the developed world (global averages for developed countries are currently at around 25-30%). Trump would tout this a a big plus! Well, with legions of economists, Republican and Democrat, and Independents as well, noting that the TEP would increase the federal deficit by $10 trillion over 120 years, while the Clinton Economic Plan (CEP) would result in a balance between expenditures and revenues, how sensible is it really?
Huge deficit increases, tax cuts for the super-wealthy, big relief for millionaires, billionaires, and big corporations. And, this plan would reduce income inequality? What alternative universe does Trump occupy? Isolationism, protectionism, export immigrants, giant increases in the debt, and silence on entitlement reform. Really? As I said in the opening paragraph - the definition of insanity is doing something over and over again and expecting a different outcome. In the recent decades past, under Bush I and Bush II, we have tried supply-side, trickle-down economics twice. Both times, the very same arguments were made - support of the "job creators" and removing their tax burdens that would see them increase wealth and invest it in creating more and more jobs. Well, over the past 7 years, we have increased their wealth alright - by orders of magnitude. And, instead of "investing" in business expansion and creating more jobs, they hoarded their wealth, expanded off-shore in low-wage nations, held their profits in tax havens and refused to pay their fair share of taxes in support of the nation that made them wealthy. That is called raw greed. And, greed should not be rewarded with more benefits and more wealth. The 1% turned out to be the big winners and increased their wealth dramatically over the past decade. Isn't it time that the revenue necessary to fuel and accelerate the recovery and economic expansion, invest in education and infrastructure, and provide tax benefits for the middle class and working families, came from those who have benefited and can afford it most - the wealthy individuals and corporations who have been dodging their tax responsibilities by jumping through every and any loophole that legions of accountants and tax attorneys can craft for their benefit? I think so. Do you? Presidents Clinton and Obama have shown that bubble-up economics - fueling the demand side of the equation - is the key to an expanding opportunity shared by all classes and that trickle-down supply-side benefits only the wealthy and does not lift all boats - just the yachts.
The TEP (Trump Economic Plan) is, by definition, insane. Just what we have come to expect from a Psycho Trump candidacy
But, the BIG news of the day was intended to be the new and improved Trump Economic Plan (TEP).
With a group of Economic "advisers" that include many hedge-fund billionaires and, strangely, many named "Steve", the "presidential Trump" read the plan for those who would listen. The stated goal of the TEP is to lift up those who have been left behind by the recovery - the under-served, underemployed, and unemployed working families and middle class folks who, unlike the top 1% of the wealthy class who won big during the current recovery, have not seen their incomes increase or their job opportunities blossom in the same period. Instead, they have seen income inequality skyrocket over the last 7 years to proportions not seen since before the end of the 19th century during the age of industrialists like Carnegie, Rockefeller, Mellon, Gould, and others. I am sure that Trump counts himself in the same class as these mega-rich folks of the past and that explains why his penthouse tower decor is covered in gold leaf. Louis XIV would be proud.
And, who does Trump blame for the current disparity? Why, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, and President Obama, of course. Never-mind that Bill Clinton inherited a failed economy and recession from Supply-sider George Bush I ("it's the economy, stupid"), with massive deficits and that President Obama inherited the worst US recession in history from Supply-sider George Bush II, with massive deficits and 10% unemployment. Bill Clinton IS to blame - for the strongest recovery in decades and the largest job growth on record - some 20,000,000 new net jobs during his Presidency. How did Bill do it? By building from the bottom up, fueled by a tax increase on the wealthy with tax credits and social supports for those of modest means - a "bubble up" model. Bill and Hillary Clinton refused to stand by on the sidelines of history while other Americans struggled, so they went into battle and have the scars to prove it. Were their mistakes made? Of course, but standing idly by was not and option then - and isn't an option now.
And, President Obama, with Congressional Republicans opposing any proposal whatsoever to assist in the rebuilding of the economy and sinking proposals to expand education and opportunity on a broad basis, nevertheless, got down to the business of lifting the economy up. In the end, the unemployment rate was cut in half - from 10% to under 5%, and the deficits significantly reduced as well. Obama has argued that investments in education, research, job training, and in necessary infrastructure projects across America, would lift up working men and women everywhere and set the stage for future economic well-being as well. His call for action fell on deaf ears in the Republican-controlled halls of Congress, With Tea Party banners unfurled, talk-radio bombast on high, and supply-side economics demanding tax cuts for the wealthy (as though they need it), the Obama call to arms fell on deaf ears. This recovery, while a significant reversal of the economic disaster that he inherited from Bush II, was uneven and disproportionately benefited the top income tiers in the US. Calls for a tax increase on excess wealth - corporate or personal - suffered legislative death by a thousand cuts. Looking back over the last 30 years and more, Bush I, Clinton, Bush II, and Obama, each time that the supply-siders were in charge, the economy went into a serious tailspin. The tax-cuts provided to the "job-creators" so that the benefits would "trickle down" to the rest of us and lift all boats, only added to the federal deficits piled up during those periods, especially added to the out-sized expenses of the Gulf Wars, I and II. So, is there any surprise that wealth concentration in the very top 1% and the one-tenth of 1 % grew and earning disparities between the wealthy and the middle and working classes grew into a chasm? So, the stage is set for the TEP - the trump Economic Plan.
The Trump solution to income disparity? Trumponomics, of course. And, once again, massive tax breaks for the top earners, like himself and his family, and massive tax cuts for corporations. This is "trickle-down" and "Supply Side" on steroids. The Trump solution to growing income inequality in the US is to give big tax breaks to... the top 1%! And, just to sweeten the pot a bit, eliminate the current Estate Tax which only impacts individuals who leave more than $5.5 million ti their heirs ($11 million for couples). But, his supporters would say, how about the child care tax credit? Hmmmm..... I do support a child care tax credit, but Trump describes his proposal as a "tax deduction" meaning a deduction from earned income, and not a credit against taxes due. So, here is a question - who costs more, a full-time nanny for the kids or a babysitter? Which families can afford which child care scenario? Who earned enough to pay significant taxes and could benefit more from a tax "deduction" as opposed to a tax "credit"? How much of cost of these tax breaks will "trickle down" to working families or the middle class?
On the corporate side, Trump proposes that all corporations be taxed the same at 15%. The result would be the lowest tax rate of the developed world (global averages for developed countries are currently at around 25-30%). Trump would tout this a a big plus! Well, with legions of economists, Republican and Democrat, and Independents as well, noting that the TEP would increase the federal deficit by $10 trillion over 120 years, while the Clinton Economic Plan (CEP) would result in a balance between expenditures and revenues, how sensible is it really?
Huge deficit increases, tax cuts for the super-wealthy, big relief for millionaires, billionaires, and big corporations. And, this plan would reduce income inequality? What alternative universe does Trump occupy? Isolationism, protectionism, export immigrants, giant increases in the debt, and silence on entitlement reform. Really? As I said in the opening paragraph - the definition of insanity is doing something over and over again and expecting a different outcome. In the recent decades past, under Bush I and Bush II, we have tried supply-side, trickle-down economics twice. Both times, the very same arguments were made - support of the "job creators" and removing their tax burdens that would see them increase wealth and invest it in creating more and more jobs. Well, over the past 7 years, we have increased their wealth alright - by orders of magnitude. And, instead of "investing" in business expansion and creating more jobs, they hoarded their wealth, expanded off-shore in low-wage nations, held their profits in tax havens and refused to pay their fair share of taxes in support of the nation that made them wealthy. That is called raw greed. And, greed should not be rewarded with more benefits and more wealth. The 1% turned out to be the big winners and increased their wealth dramatically over the past decade. Isn't it time that the revenue necessary to fuel and accelerate the recovery and economic expansion, invest in education and infrastructure, and provide tax benefits for the middle class and working families, came from those who have benefited and can afford it most - the wealthy individuals and corporations who have been dodging their tax responsibilities by jumping through every and any loophole that legions of accountants and tax attorneys can craft for their benefit? I think so. Do you? Presidents Clinton and Obama have shown that bubble-up economics - fueling the demand side of the equation - is the key to an expanding opportunity shared by all classes and that trickle-down supply-side benefits only the wealthy and does not lift all boats - just the yachts.
The TEP (Trump Economic Plan) is, by definition, insane. Just what we have come to expect from a Psycho Trump candidacy
Tuesday, August 9, 2016
"I'LL HUFF AND I"LL PUFF AND I WILL BLOW YOUR HOUSE DOWN!" - THE TRUMP THREAT THAT IS FRAYING ON THE EDGES.
Donald J. Trump has terrorized the Republican Party over the past year with a threat - if you don't treat me "fairly", "I'll huff and I'll puff....". And, indeed, Mr. Trump did "huff and puff" his way through the Primary season. The Act I Primary season included "Lyin' Ted", "Little Marco", "Low-energy Jeb", etc. The Democrats were not immune from the name-calling either. "Crazy Bernie" and "Crooked Hillary" joined the Trump lexicon as well. Added into the primary Trump stew were also healthy helpings of scapegoating, misogyny, racism, and chest-thumping. Stir some conspiracy theories into the batter - Senator Cruz' father met with Lee Harvey Oswald and is somehow connected with the JFK assassination, President Obama is a Muslim from Kenya, the Mexican Government is "sending" "rapists, criminals, drug dealers...." to the US - and bake in the heat of the summer Republican Convention. Voila! We have a new Republican Presidential Nominee - none other than the chief chef - Donald J. Trump. Uninformed, untested, totally lacking in experience, and offering a dangerous mix of national and international policy proposals, the Trump Republican Party - as a reflection of their nominee and his policies - is in stark contrast to traditional Republican platforms and policy positions of the past 20 years. It seems that Trump WAS treated "fairly." He cowed the other Republican candidates, the Speaker of the US House, the Majority Leader of the US Senate, the RNC Chairman, governors, as well as other Republican House and Senate Members who either stood off to the side during the Primary contest or who were mostly mute in spite of their belief that the Donald Trump candidacy was a disaster.So, why the silence, the inaction, and, in the end, the muted acceptance and tepid support? Disbelief and fear.
DISBELIEF
The Donald Trump candidacy was never taken seriously. From pundits and commentators to the Senate Cloak Room, Trump's announced run for the Republican nomination brought forth giggles and disdain. No one thought that it was anywhere near possible that Trump was seriously running for anything other than to increase the Trump "Brand" recognition for future marketing purposes. The view was that he was not a "serious" candidate, just a showman leading a circus performance. Still, with his sizable bank account in the billions, he could be a major contributor to the eventual nominee.... so, no reason to disrespect him along the road. The Party and other "serious" candidates tolerated Trump. Some - like Ted Cruz and Ben Carson - actively befriended him, perhaps in the hope of receiving his endorsement - and cash - down the road in support of their own candidacy. After all, he just asked for a little respect. And, when it came to the Republican Party apparatus, all he wanted was to be treated "fairly." What's wrong with that, after all?
Over the weeks and months that followed, we all witnessed the slow shrinkage of the Republican field from 17 to 12 to 5 to 3. Some would leave the race for lack of support adequate to fund a national race, and some - like Jeb Bush - who made the painful political calculus that he simply could not win the nomination against the Trump campaign. Trump was just too much of a stage celebrity presence with very high name recognition. Added to his "celebrity", Trump also rode a wave of discontent and disillusionment that was reflected in the Republican primary voter turnout that we all witnessed during the primary season. As Donald Trump is proud to share with anyone who will listen, he scored more raw votes than any other Republican candidate for president in history. As the weeks went by and the field was reduced to Trump, Cruz, and Kasich, the "Never Trump" movement came too little and too late. Most party leaders and elected officials continued to stay on the sidelines hoping not to get "shot" or wounded in the crossfire. After all, what would happen if Trump took his record voter turn-out and ran as an independent?
FEAR
The great disbelief of 2015 became the great fear of 2016. Republican Party leaders, recalling the impact of the Ross Perot candidacy on the presidential election of 1992 that resulted in the defeat of incumbent President George Bush and the election of Democrat Bill Clinton, greatly feared that Trump could easily bolt the Republican Party, establish the Trump Party and run, as Perot did, as a self-funded independent. And, if that happened, the Republican Party would be split down the middle, leading to yet another electoral disaster for the ultimate Republican nominee. Even worse, such a split could imperil the Republican Senate majority and reduce or eliminate their House majority as well. Better to let things work themselves out and keep the party together, even if only in the interest of protecting the Republican congressional majorities, the thinking went.
As we all witnessed, the result was that Donald Trump out-lasted them all, silenced opponents, defeated the "Never Trump" movement, avoided a convention floor fight, and secured the nomination. Now that the fantasy of "he'll never get the nomination" is over, the reality of a Trump nomination, and "The Donald" being just one step away from the Oval Office has begun to sink in. And, Donald Trump is revealing more and more of himself - and his world view - as the Presidential Nominee of his party. The Republican Convention itself - its staging, speakers, and process - felt more like a royal coronation than an exercise in a democratic process. The Donald had arrived.
CRACKS IN THE CAMPAIGN "WALL"
And, that gets us to today.... and the fear continues. From corporate leaders like Warren Buffet, Jeff Bezos, and others, to 50 former National Security Officials and experts that had served in Republican administrations, and some few members of Congress, the Trump campaign has begun to fray. Fear that Donald Trump could actually become the President of the United States has drawn many who are rightly concerned about that possibility, have finally gone public in their opposition to Trump. Through announcements, editorials, and ads, these traditional Republicans like Senator Snow and Governor Kasich, and recognized defense experts - a former CIA Director Michael Hayden, former Homeland Security Chief Chartoff, and dozens of others, have all denounced Trump's credentials to occupy the Oval Office. As one person, they describe him as totally unqualified, unfit, and ill-tempered to be the guardian of the US nuclear codes. Trump has questioned the usefulness of NATO, has suggested that Japan and South Korea develop nuclear weapons in violation of global nuclear non-proliferation protocols and treaties. Trump has described Putin, Qaddafi, and even Saddam Hussein as "strong leaders" worthy of admiration. Interestingly enough, Trump describes himself as a "strong leader." It seems that the stream of outrageous statements from Trump just continues.... and alienates more and more people, Republicans and Independents alike.
Recent polling has Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump from 9 to 15 points in multiple polls. Worse for Republicans, Trump is also losing key "battleground" states like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia. Worse yet, Hillary is either close to or ahead of trump in more traditional Republican states - leading Trump in Georgia is just one example. As Trump's numbers sink, the Republican party and its leaders, become more and more concerned about down-ballot races for the Senate, the House, and some Governorships too.
A new independent candidacy was announced just yesterday, an unknown from Utah, who debuts this week in an effort to give Republican voters somewhere else to go and vote rather than to hold their nose and vote for Trump. In addition, the Libertarian Party features two former governors running together, both were Republicans when in service. And, then there is the Green Party candidate hoping to sway and/or attract disaffected Bernie voters to her cause. Taken together, I expect that many more Republican than Democratic voters will be attracted away from the Trump candidacy to the Independent lines, draining off votes that might otherwise have gone to the Republican line. The question is, once there, will the down-ballot Republican candidates for Senate and House seats suffer as well? My take is that Democrats will re-take the Senate and reduce the Republican majority in the House. Time will tell as to how much Trump will sink and whether or not it will be enough to place the House of Representatives into play as well. When the history of this election year is written, will the headline be that trump built a "wall" which turned out to be his Waterloo. Stay tuned.
DISBELIEF
The Donald Trump candidacy was never taken seriously. From pundits and commentators to the Senate Cloak Room, Trump's announced run for the Republican nomination brought forth giggles and disdain. No one thought that it was anywhere near possible that Trump was seriously running for anything other than to increase the Trump "Brand" recognition for future marketing purposes. The view was that he was not a "serious" candidate, just a showman leading a circus performance. Still, with his sizable bank account in the billions, he could be a major contributor to the eventual nominee.... so, no reason to disrespect him along the road. The Party and other "serious" candidates tolerated Trump. Some - like Ted Cruz and Ben Carson - actively befriended him, perhaps in the hope of receiving his endorsement - and cash - down the road in support of their own candidacy. After all, he just asked for a little respect. And, when it came to the Republican Party apparatus, all he wanted was to be treated "fairly." What's wrong with that, after all?
Over the weeks and months that followed, we all witnessed the slow shrinkage of the Republican field from 17 to 12 to 5 to 3. Some would leave the race for lack of support adequate to fund a national race, and some - like Jeb Bush - who made the painful political calculus that he simply could not win the nomination against the Trump campaign. Trump was just too much of a stage celebrity presence with very high name recognition. Added to his "celebrity", Trump also rode a wave of discontent and disillusionment that was reflected in the Republican primary voter turnout that we all witnessed during the primary season. As Donald Trump is proud to share with anyone who will listen, he scored more raw votes than any other Republican candidate for president in history. As the weeks went by and the field was reduced to Trump, Cruz, and Kasich, the "Never Trump" movement came too little and too late. Most party leaders and elected officials continued to stay on the sidelines hoping not to get "shot" or wounded in the crossfire. After all, what would happen if Trump took his record voter turn-out and ran as an independent?
FEAR
The great disbelief of 2015 became the great fear of 2016. Republican Party leaders, recalling the impact of the Ross Perot candidacy on the presidential election of 1992 that resulted in the defeat of incumbent President George Bush and the election of Democrat Bill Clinton, greatly feared that Trump could easily bolt the Republican Party, establish the Trump Party and run, as Perot did, as a self-funded independent. And, if that happened, the Republican Party would be split down the middle, leading to yet another electoral disaster for the ultimate Republican nominee. Even worse, such a split could imperil the Republican Senate majority and reduce or eliminate their House majority as well. Better to let things work themselves out and keep the party together, even if only in the interest of protecting the Republican congressional majorities, the thinking went.
As we all witnessed, the result was that Donald Trump out-lasted them all, silenced opponents, defeated the "Never Trump" movement, avoided a convention floor fight, and secured the nomination. Now that the fantasy of "he'll never get the nomination" is over, the reality of a Trump nomination, and "The Donald" being just one step away from the Oval Office has begun to sink in. And, Donald Trump is revealing more and more of himself - and his world view - as the Presidential Nominee of his party. The Republican Convention itself - its staging, speakers, and process - felt more like a royal coronation than an exercise in a democratic process. The Donald had arrived.
CRACKS IN THE CAMPAIGN "WALL"
And, that gets us to today.... and the fear continues. From corporate leaders like Warren Buffet, Jeff Bezos, and others, to 50 former National Security Officials and experts that had served in Republican administrations, and some few members of Congress, the Trump campaign has begun to fray. Fear that Donald Trump could actually become the President of the United States has drawn many who are rightly concerned about that possibility, have finally gone public in their opposition to Trump. Through announcements, editorials, and ads, these traditional Republicans like Senator Snow and Governor Kasich, and recognized defense experts - a former CIA Director Michael Hayden, former Homeland Security Chief Chartoff, and dozens of others, have all denounced Trump's credentials to occupy the Oval Office. As one person, they describe him as totally unqualified, unfit, and ill-tempered to be the guardian of the US nuclear codes. Trump has questioned the usefulness of NATO, has suggested that Japan and South Korea develop nuclear weapons in violation of global nuclear non-proliferation protocols and treaties. Trump has described Putin, Qaddafi, and even Saddam Hussein as "strong leaders" worthy of admiration. Interestingly enough, Trump describes himself as a "strong leader." It seems that the stream of outrageous statements from Trump just continues.... and alienates more and more people, Republicans and Independents alike.
Recent polling has Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump from 9 to 15 points in multiple polls. Worse for Republicans, Trump is also losing key "battleground" states like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia. Worse yet, Hillary is either close to or ahead of trump in more traditional Republican states - leading Trump in Georgia is just one example. As Trump's numbers sink, the Republican party and its leaders, become more and more concerned about down-ballot races for the Senate, the House, and some Governorships too.
A new independent candidacy was announced just yesterday, an unknown from Utah, who debuts this week in an effort to give Republican voters somewhere else to go and vote rather than to hold their nose and vote for Trump. In addition, the Libertarian Party features two former governors running together, both were Republicans when in service. And, then there is the Green Party candidate hoping to sway and/or attract disaffected Bernie voters to her cause. Taken together, I expect that many more Republican than Democratic voters will be attracted away from the Trump candidacy to the Independent lines, draining off votes that might otherwise have gone to the Republican line. The question is, once there, will the down-ballot Republican candidates for Senate and House seats suffer as well? My take is that Democrats will re-take the Senate and reduce the Republican majority in the House. Time will tell as to how much Trump will sink and whether or not it will be enough to place the House of Representatives into play as well. When the history of this election year is written, will the headline be that trump built a "wall" which turned out to be his Waterloo. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, August 3, 2016
PHILADELPHIA DREAMIN' - THE HILLARY SHOW..... AND, A CRASH AND BURN FOR PSYCHO TRUMP.
The DNC hit a grand slam. From the timing, the staging, the line-up of Speakers, the thematics, and, of course, the Nominee's acceptance speech, the entire Convention was a hit. And, in the days that followed, Hillary's poll numbers received an 8 point boost - from a virtual tie to a respectable lead over Psycho Trump. (Well, if Trump can give out names for his opponents - "Little Marco", "Lyin' Ted", "Crooked Hillary" and the rest, so can I!). In any case, The DNC Convention received strong reviews from all quarters, including many Republican commentators and pundits. It was the "really big show" of the 2016 election cycle - and the results prove it. The reason that I chose "psycho" as a prefix from Trump started at the Democratic Convention. Let me explain.
Part of any national party convention is to present "validators." These are people - just plain folks and some celebrities as well - who will take the stage and express some experience that they had with the nominee, share a personal story or two, explain why they support the candidate, or share some personal story that bears on the election. Without question, the DNC Convention far out-paced the Republican conclave on the quality and number of celebrities who chose to appear and endorse the Democratic Nominee, Hillary Clinton. Of course, if you define the Trump family as "royals" - oh, I mean, "celebrities"- then maybe the count would be the same, but the depth, breath and quality of the speakers presented at the DNC was far superior to the RNC. From President Barack Obama to Michelle Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, and, of course, Hillary herself, the DNC line-up was four-star. And, then, there was NJ Senator Cory Booker, who energized the delegate crowd with his best and most animated presentation so far. Still, the most poignant presenter and the speech that has had the greatest impact so far, was short and delivered by an unknown - the father of US Army Capt. Humayan Khan, killed in Iraq in June, 2004. Khizr and Ghazala Khan, proud parents of Captain Khan, walked slowly to the DNC podium and shared that painful event and their grief at his loss. The obvious point of the presentation was to underscore the patriotism that US Muslim share with their fellow citizens as well as the sacrifices that are routinely made by Muslims in defense of the nation. Their son, a college graduate filled with promise for the future, chose to enlist in the US Army and rose to the rank of Captain. His heroism in defense of his fellow soldiers and his country cost him his life and transformed his parents into a Gold Star family. Trump's well-known disdain for Muslims and scapegoating of immigrants - especially his proposed "shutdown" of all Muslims trying to enter the US and his proposed for "enhanced vetting" of Muslims already here as visitors or citizens, places all US Muslims under suspicion. The last time such discrimination based on religion was broadly applied by a nation was in Germany in the 1930s and 1940s. Never-mind that the US Constitution clearly prohibits discrimination based on religion as well as other characteristics.
Mr. Khizr Khan, Captain Khan's Dad, his voice quivering with emotion, and his wife Ghazala near tears by his side, told his son's story of sacrifice. He held up a pocket copy of the US Constitution and rhetorically asked Mr. Trump if he had ever "read the Constitution"? His point, of course, was that the foundational document of our country proclaims religious freedom and clearly prohibits religious discrimination. Point taken. But, evidently,"the Donald" doesn't get it.
Instead of praising Captain Khan's heroism and comforting his parents in their grief, Trump just could not resist. He "tweeted" some remarks attacking the Khan family for what he described as "a vicious attack" on him in their speech. Trump also questioned why the Gold Star Mom didn't speak, inferring that her Muslim faith prevented her from speaking in deference to her husband - just another smear on the Muslim faith. And, the fire-storm of backlash against Trump began - from every political quarter - commentators, pundits, elected officials, and leading Republicans like Paul Ryan, and John McCain. In addition, the Trump attack on this Gold Star family has been denounced by President Obama and a variety of Veterans groups. One Vets group, Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans, denounced Trump's comments and suggested in an MSNBC interview this morning that Donald Trump could wind up being the first Republican candidate in decades that did not carry the veterans vote in a Presidential election.
Since Trump's initial twitter attack on the Khan family, several Trump Campaign staff members have joined in the attack on the Khan family. They leveled more bizarre and totally insane attacks and explanations for Mr. Khan's remarks. One staffer and Veterans Issues co-chair advisor, Al Baldasaro, tweeted that Captain Khan, awarded the Purple Heart and Bronze Star for heroism, was a "jihadist who joined the military to kill Americans." Balsasaro, relying on an article published by Theodore and Walid Shoebat, spinning yet another conspiracy theory, accused Capt. Khan as "working for the US and Al-Qaeda" who was killed "before his Islamist mission was accomplished." Shoebat also charged that Captain Khan's father is "a Muslim plant and an agent of the Muslim Brotherhood, working with the Clinton Campaign." These are the very same people - the Shoebats - who called on the US government to execute gay people for sodomy and Hillary Clinton for Witchcraft! They also demanded that women who have abortions to be "lined up and shot by firing squad." Evidently, firing squad is Baldasaro's favorite method of execution. Just last month (July) he called for Hillary Clinton to be "put in the firing line and shot for treason." Baldasaro, a retired Marine, is currently a Republican member of the New Hampshire House of Representatives and once described a woman breast-feeding her child as "a pervert show."
Psycho Trump then equated the sacrifice of the Khan family to his self-described "sacrifice." Trump's painful "sacrifice" was "building great structures" and "working very hard." What nonsense - comparing one's work as a real estate developer with those who risk - and sometimes lose - their lives in defense of the nation. Trump was a possible conscript during the Viet Nam war, being of draft age at that time. He avoided service, as have his sons, claiming that he had a "medical disability." Just last year, Trump's doctor released a report that Trump's health is "astonishingly excellent" and "extraordinary." When Trump was questioned about this apparent disparity, Trump said, "well, I guess that it healed."
Then, a spokesperson for the Trump Campaign said that President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were responsible for Captain Khan's death because Obama and Clinton allowed Isis to grow and threaten American troops in the Middle east. She neglected to notice that Captain Khan was killed in an IED attack in June, 2004 - 5 years before Barak Obama became President of the United States. George Bush was President then. Of course, there was no mention of "ghost" WMDs that were never found. The Trump Campaign, corrected the error a day later.
Since then, Psycho Trump has thrown a mother and baby out of one of his "rallies", and has publicly refused to "endorse" either John McCain or Speaker Paul Ryan, both facing re-election challenges.
It just looks like the "more Presidential", post-Convention Trump, drank too much of his own cool-aid, and, like a train wreck hurtling down the tracks, is smashing everything in its path regardless of political "correctness" or political party. Psycho Trump's one-man wrecking crew, is charging ahead with conspiracies in his head and hatred in his heart. Is it really a possibility that Psycho Trump could actually become the President of the United States? Would he scrap NATO? Support nuclear proliferation? Abandon allies in Europe to their fate at the hands of Russia? Cut taxes on billionaires and eliminate the minimum wage, etc.?
Back in the early Republican primary contests, I described the Republican field - and Trump in particular - as the Clown Car and the Chief Clown. The Chief Clown, Psycho Trump, now the official Nominee, is in charge of the National Republican Party and is driving the Republican Party's Bus recklessly down the campaign trail with all aboard. Why responsible Republicans - who see the existential wreck ahead - do not get off while they still have a chance at life, is a growing mystery. I believe that the American people will not tolerate the likes of Psycho Trump in the Oval Office. And, in time, they will reject all those who enthusiastically supported his candidacy, adding to the wreckage that Donald Trump's campaign will leave behind as his legacy.
Part of any national party convention is to present "validators." These are people - just plain folks and some celebrities as well - who will take the stage and express some experience that they had with the nominee, share a personal story or two, explain why they support the candidate, or share some personal story that bears on the election. Without question, the DNC Convention far out-paced the Republican conclave on the quality and number of celebrities who chose to appear and endorse the Democratic Nominee, Hillary Clinton. Of course, if you define the Trump family as "royals" - oh, I mean, "celebrities"- then maybe the count would be the same, but the depth, breath and quality of the speakers presented at the DNC was far superior to the RNC. From President Barack Obama to Michelle Obama, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, and, of course, Hillary herself, the DNC line-up was four-star. And, then, there was NJ Senator Cory Booker, who energized the delegate crowd with his best and most animated presentation so far. Still, the most poignant presenter and the speech that has had the greatest impact so far, was short and delivered by an unknown - the father of US Army Capt. Humayan Khan, killed in Iraq in June, 2004. Khizr and Ghazala Khan, proud parents of Captain Khan, walked slowly to the DNC podium and shared that painful event and their grief at his loss. The obvious point of the presentation was to underscore the patriotism that US Muslim share with their fellow citizens as well as the sacrifices that are routinely made by Muslims in defense of the nation. Their son, a college graduate filled with promise for the future, chose to enlist in the US Army and rose to the rank of Captain. His heroism in defense of his fellow soldiers and his country cost him his life and transformed his parents into a Gold Star family. Trump's well-known disdain for Muslims and scapegoating of immigrants - especially his proposed "shutdown" of all Muslims trying to enter the US and his proposed for "enhanced vetting" of Muslims already here as visitors or citizens, places all US Muslims under suspicion. The last time such discrimination based on religion was broadly applied by a nation was in Germany in the 1930s and 1940s. Never-mind that the US Constitution clearly prohibits discrimination based on religion as well as other characteristics.
Mr. Khizr Khan, Captain Khan's Dad, his voice quivering with emotion, and his wife Ghazala near tears by his side, told his son's story of sacrifice. He held up a pocket copy of the US Constitution and rhetorically asked Mr. Trump if he had ever "read the Constitution"? His point, of course, was that the foundational document of our country proclaims religious freedom and clearly prohibits religious discrimination. Point taken. But, evidently,"the Donald" doesn't get it.
Instead of praising Captain Khan's heroism and comforting his parents in their grief, Trump just could not resist. He "tweeted" some remarks attacking the Khan family for what he described as "a vicious attack" on him in their speech. Trump also questioned why the Gold Star Mom didn't speak, inferring that her Muslim faith prevented her from speaking in deference to her husband - just another smear on the Muslim faith. And, the fire-storm of backlash against Trump began - from every political quarter - commentators, pundits, elected officials, and leading Republicans like Paul Ryan, and John McCain. In addition, the Trump attack on this Gold Star family has been denounced by President Obama and a variety of Veterans groups. One Vets group, Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans, denounced Trump's comments and suggested in an MSNBC interview this morning that Donald Trump could wind up being the first Republican candidate in decades that did not carry the veterans vote in a Presidential election.
Since Trump's initial twitter attack on the Khan family, several Trump Campaign staff members have joined in the attack on the Khan family. They leveled more bizarre and totally insane attacks and explanations for Mr. Khan's remarks. One staffer and Veterans Issues co-chair advisor, Al Baldasaro, tweeted that Captain Khan, awarded the Purple Heart and Bronze Star for heroism, was a "jihadist who joined the military to kill Americans." Balsasaro, relying on an article published by Theodore and Walid Shoebat, spinning yet another conspiracy theory, accused Capt. Khan as "working for the US and Al-Qaeda" who was killed "before his Islamist mission was accomplished." Shoebat also charged that Captain Khan's father is "a Muslim plant and an agent of the Muslim Brotherhood, working with the Clinton Campaign." These are the very same people - the Shoebats - who called on the US government to execute gay people for sodomy and Hillary Clinton for Witchcraft! They also demanded that women who have abortions to be "lined up and shot by firing squad." Evidently, firing squad is Baldasaro's favorite method of execution. Just last month (July) he called for Hillary Clinton to be "put in the firing line and shot for treason." Baldasaro, a retired Marine, is currently a Republican member of the New Hampshire House of Representatives and once described a woman breast-feeding her child as "a pervert show."
Psycho Trump then equated the sacrifice of the Khan family to his self-described "sacrifice." Trump's painful "sacrifice" was "building great structures" and "working very hard." What nonsense - comparing one's work as a real estate developer with those who risk - and sometimes lose - their lives in defense of the nation. Trump was a possible conscript during the Viet Nam war, being of draft age at that time. He avoided service, as have his sons, claiming that he had a "medical disability." Just last year, Trump's doctor released a report that Trump's health is "astonishingly excellent" and "extraordinary." When Trump was questioned about this apparent disparity, Trump said, "well, I guess that it healed."
Then, a spokesperson for the Trump Campaign said that President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton were responsible for Captain Khan's death because Obama and Clinton allowed Isis to grow and threaten American troops in the Middle east. She neglected to notice that Captain Khan was killed in an IED attack in June, 2004 - 5 years before Barak Obama became President of the United States. George Bush was President then. Of course, there was no mention of "ghost" WMDs that were never found. The Trump Campaign, corrected the error a day later.
Since then, Psycho Trump has thrown a mother and baby out of one of his "rallies", and has publicly refused to "endorse" either John McCain or Speaker Paul Ryan, both facing re-election challenges.
It just looks like the "more Presidential", post-Convention Trump, drank too much of his own cool-aid, and, like a train wreck hurtling down the tracks, is smashing everything in its path regardless of political "correctness" or political party. Psycho Trump's one-man wrecking crew, is charging ahead with conspiracies in his head and hatred in his heart. Is it really a possibility that Psycho Trump could actually become the President of the United States? Would he scrap NATO? Support nuclear proliferation? Abandon allies in Europe to their fate at the hands of Russia? Cut taxes on billionaires and eliminate the minimum wage, etc.?
Back in the early Republican primary contests, I described the Republican field - and Trump in particular - as the Clown Car and the Chief Clown. The Chief Clown, Psycho Trump, now the official Nominee, is in charge of the National Republican Party and is driving the Republican Party's Bus recklessly down the campaign trail with all aboard. Why responsible Republicans - who see the existential wreck ahead - do not get off while they still have a chance at life, is a growing mystery. I believe that the American people will not tolerate the likes of Psycho Trump in the Oval Office. And, in time, they will reject all those who enthusiastically supported his candidacy, adding to the wreckage that Donald Trump's campaign will leave behind as his legacy.
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