Donald J. Trump has terrorized the Republican Party over the past year with a threat - if you don't treat me "fairly", "I'll huff and I'll puff....". And, indeed, Mr. Trump did "huff and puff" his way through the Primary season. The Act I Primary season included "Lyin' Ted", "Little Marco", "Low-energy Jeb", etc. The Democrats were not immune from the name-calling either. "Crazy Bernie" and "Crooked Hillary" joined the Trump lexicon as well. Added into the primary Trump stew were also healthy helpings of scapegoating, misogyny, racism, and chest-thumping. Stir some conspiracy theories into the batter - Senator Cruz' father met with Lee Harvey Oswald and is somehow connected with the JFK assassination, President Obama is a Muslim from Kenya, the Mexican Government is "sending" "rapists, criminals, drug dealers...." to the US - and bake in the heat of the summer Republican Convention. Voila! We have a new Republican Presidential Nominee - none other than the chief chef - Donald J. Trump. Uninformed, untested, totally lacking in experience, and offering a dangerous mix of national and international policy proposals, the Trump Republican Party - as a reflection of their nominee and his policies - is in stark contrast to traditional Republican platforms and policy positions of the past 20 years. It seems that Trump WAS treated "fairly." He cowed the other Republican candidates, the Speaker of the US House, the Majority Leader of the US Senate, the RNC Chairman, governors, as well as other Republican House and Senate Members who either stood off to the side during the Primary contest or who were mostly mute in spite of their belief that the Donald Trump candidacy was a disaster.So, why the silence, the inaction, and, in the end, the muted acceptance and tepid support? Disbelief and fear.
DISBELIEF
The Donald Trump candidacy was never taken seriously. From pundits and commentators to the Senate Cloak Room, Trump's announced run for the Republican nomination brought forth giggles and disdain. No one thought that it was anywhere near possible that Trump was seriously running for anything other than to increase the Trump "Brand" recognition for future marketing purposes. The view was that he was not a "serious" candidate, just a showman leading a circus performance. Still, with his sizable bank account in the billions, he could be a major contributor to the eventual nominee.... so, no reason to disrespect him along the road. The Party and other "serious" candidates tolerated Trump. Some - like Ted Cruz and Ben Carson - actively befriended him, perhaps in the hope of receiving his endorsement - and cash - down the road in support of their own candidacy. After all, he just asked for a little respect. And, when it came to the Republican Party apparatus, all he wanted was to be treated "fairly." What's wrong with that, after all?
Over the weeks and months that followed, we all witnessed the slow shrinkage of the Republican field from 17 to 12 to 5 to 3. Some would leave the race for lack of support adequate to fund a national race, and some - like Jeb Bush - who made the painful political calculus that he simply could not win the nomination against the Trump campaign. Trump was just too much of a stage celebrity presence with very high name recognition. Added to his "celebrity", Trump also rode a wave of discontent and disillusionment that was reflected in the Republican primary voter turnout that we all witnessed during the primary season. As Donald Trump is proud to share with anyone who will listen, he scored more raw votes than any other Republican candidate for president in history. As the weeks went by and the field was reduced to Trump, Cruz, and Kasich, the "Never Trump" movement came too little and too late. Most party leaders and elected officials continued to stay on the sidelines hoping not to get "shot" or wounded in the crossfire. After all, what would happen if Trump took his record voter turn-out and ran as an independent?
FEAR
The great disbelief of 2015 became the great fear of 2016. Republican Party leaders, recalling the impact of the Ross Perot candidacy on the presidential election of 1992 that resulted in the defeat of incumbent President George Bush and the election of Democrat Bill Clinton, greatly feared that Trump could easily bolt the Republican Party, establish the Trump Party and run, as Perot did, as a self-funded independent. And, if that happened, the Republican Party would be split down the middle, leading to yet another electoral disaster for the ultimate Republican nominee. Even worse, such a split could imperil the Republican Senate majority and reduce or eliminate their House majority as well. Better to let things work themselves out and keep the party together, even if only in the interest of protecting the Republican congressional majorities, the thinking went.
As we all witnessed, the result was that Donald Trump out-lasted them all, silenced opponents, defeated the "Never Trump" movement, avoided a convention floor fight, and secured the nomination. Now that the fantasy of "he'll never get the nomination" is over, the reality of a Trump nomination, and "The Donald" being just one step away from the Oval Office has begun to sink in. And, Donald Trump is revealing more and more of himself - and his world view - as the Presidential Nominee of his party. The Republican Convention itself - its staging, speakers, and process - felt more like a royal coronation than an exercise in a democratic process. The Donald had arrived.
CRACKS IN THE CAMPAIGN "WALL"
And, that gets us to today.... and the fear continues. From corporate leaders like Warren Buffet, Jeff Bezos, and others, to 50 former National Security Officials and experts that had served in Republican administrations, and some few members of Congress, the Trump campaign has begun to fray. Fear that Donald Trump could actually become the President of the United States has drawn many who are rightly concerned about that possibility, have finally gone public in their opposition to Trump. Through announcements, editorials, and ads, these traditional Republicans like Senator Snow and Governor Kasich, and recognized defense experts - a former CIA Director Michael Hayden, former Homeland Security Chief Chartoff, and dozens of others, have all denounced Trump's credentials to occupy the Oval Office. As one person, they describe him as totally unqualified, unfit, and ill-tempered to be the guardian of the US nuclear codes. Trump has questioned the usefulness of NATO, has suggested that Japan and South Korea develop nuclear weapons in violation of global nuclear non-proliferation protocols and treaties. Trump has described Putin, Qaddafi, and even Saddam Hussein as "strong leaders" worthy of admiration. Interestingly enough, Trump describes himself as a "strong leader." It seems that the stream of outrageous statements from Trump just continues.... and alienates more and more people, Republicans and Independents alike.
Recent polling has Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump from 9 to 15 points in multiple polls. Worse for Republicans, Trump is also losing key "battleground" states like Pennsylvania, Florida, and Virginia. Worse yet, Hillary is either close to or ahead of trump in more traditional Republican states - leading Trump in Georgia is just one example. As Trump's numbers sink, the Republican party and its leaders, become more and more concerned about down-ballot races for the Senate, the House, and some Governorships too.
A new independent candidacy was announced just yesterday, an unknown from Utah, who debuts this week in an effort to give Republican voters somewhere else to go and vote rather than to hold their nose and vote for Trump. In addition, the Libertarian Party features two former governors running together, both were Republicans when in service. And, then there is the Green Party candidate hoping to sway and/or attract disaffected Bernie voters to her cause. Taken together, I expect that many more Republican than Democratic voters will be attracted away from the Trump candidacy to the Independent lines, draining off votes that might otherwise have gone to the Republican line. The question is, once there, will the down-ballot Republican candidates for Senate and House seats suffer as well? My take is that Democrats will re-take the Senate and reduce the Republican majority in the House. Time will tell as to how much Trump will sink and whether or not it will be enough to place the House of Representatives into play as well. When the history of this election year is written, will the headline be that trump built a "wall" which turned out to be his Waterloo. Stay tuned.
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