Over the last several days, it seems as though both parties are edging ever closer to some serious self-inflicted wounds......
On the Republican side, the rhetoric - already high up on the nasty meter, seems to be soaring to even higher planes. With some really, really, tepid "endorsements" for Cruz in Wisconsin from former opponents who are all characterized as heading down the endorsement path as though they were holding their collective noses as they were led down the isle by the Beltway "establishment", to the renewed assault on Cruz when he arrived in New York and got a real dose of "New York values", it appears that we are headed for some real fireworks. Perhaps the two candidates will produce so much incendiary commentary that they will burn the Republican House down to the ground by the time that they are through and arrive at their Convention. Time will tell... but, with today's NY Post front page headline - "Cruz: Take the F U Train", and Trump turning up the heat at his opening rally in Long Island, the R side of the New York adventure looks HOT indeed. The "Presidential" Trump response should define "NY values" as welcoming to legal immigrants, sensitive to the needs of those of modest income, offering opportunity to those willing to work for it, providing education to millions and millions of children from all backgrounds, courageous in the face of the attack on the World Trade Center, proud of their police and fire personnel, and building a world-class city filled with jobs, commerce, history, arts and everything that makes for a diverse city for others to model.
Meanwhile, the Democrats supporting Sanders got their own share of "red meat" with Sanders' attack on Clinton's "qualifications to be President." Responding to a reported Clinton attack on Sanders qualifications for the office - that, by the way, didn't happen at all - the Sanders' statement damaged both campaigns as well as providing the Republicans with attack fodder for the fall.... BIG MISTAKE. My guess is that Bernie Sanders had long ago instructed his campaign staff that they were not to attack Hillary and, instead run an issue-based campaign. The goal of that was to be able to bring the party together for the fall, 2016 battle with as little self-inflicted damage as possible and to present a strong and united front against whoever the Republican Clown Car produced as their candidate. But, now that the Sanders staff can see the possibility of actually BECOMING the nominee, they have been trying to find a way to get Bernie to take off the gloves. So, the Sanders staff "spun" the Hillary comments in the Washington Post on Sanders' poorly thought out comments about how to "break-up the big banks" into a mis-characterization that she said Sanders was not qualified for the presidency. Then, they sent him out to the microphones to respond while they had him stoked. How do I know this? I have been in campaigns for more than 25 years.... and, that is exactly what I would do! I needed my candidate to GET TOUGH! In any case, just an educated guess... Hillary, in responding to Bernie's attack on her "qualifications" for the highest office in the nation, handled it well, I thought. Measured, calm, and supportive, she commented that Sanders would be - by far - a superior candidate to any Republican running and that she would support him in a New York minute and, enthusiastically should he become the Party nominee. In any case, it's pretty clear that Hillary IS qualified for the office of the Presidency - perhaps more so by experience and temperament than any candidate in living memory.
Right now, Hillary holds a double-digit lead over Sanders among likely NY Democratic voters. And, Trump - at 52% - with Kasich in second place and Cruz a dismal third at 17 %, is clearly in control so far. Now, how is that for a New York value! If numbers like this hold, we could see a Presidential contest between 2 New Yorkers - Hillary and Donald..... or Bernie and Donald?
Thursday, April 7, 2016
Monday, April 4, 2016
AND THE BEAT GOES ON....... Zombie Delegates?
As is obvious, there has been a lull in the action.... OK.. so, there are some "Trumpisms" to toy with... But, I have come to see that these dumb-ass utterances are momentarily a hot-button (like, "punish women who get an abortion..." or, not taking dropping nukes in Europe off the table, or, leaving NATO, or, lets encourage Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear bombs/missiles) occupy a lot of talk time for a day or two or three... and then recede into the background noise of the campaign as other issues come front and center. The issue that will continue right through the Republican Convention is the delegate selection process..... and the potential for "Unbound" ZOMBIE DELEGATES and SUPER-DELEGATES to make or break a candidate.
We have all watched the gradual, state-by-state contests and the accumulation of delegates - sometimes in winner-take-all, sometimes proportionate splits, and sometimes in primaries, sometimes in caucus states. One thing that we thought was sure, however, was that the delegates were pledged to one candidate or another. So, maybe not past the first or second ballot at the convention, based on the state rules for delegate behavior - but, you win a delegate, then they vote for you. So, what are the ZOMBIES? Well... on the Democratic side, some "Zombie" delegates are present from the start. They are called "Super-Delegates" and are selected under DNC rules and State Democratic Committee adopted Delegate Plans as approved by the DNC. They are elected officials, DNC Members from that state, other party officials such as the State Democratic Chairman, and a handful of others "elected" by the State Committee in Convention. These generally are self-pledged Delegates, are not elected by primaries or caucuses, and can vote for whoever they choose at any time, including the first ballot. What does that mean? If they are "pledged" to one candidate or another, are they not required to vote for that person? Answer: NO. They are the only Delegates that can change their minds, drop their "pledge" and switch sides BEFORE the first ballot at the Convention. And, that is what makes them SUPER-DELEGATES. If you ask does this really happen often? The answer is no. But, it can. On the Democratic side, Hillary has a GIANT lead in pledged Delegates who were pledged long ago before they were assigned these positions and before the state parade of primaries and caucuses. And, that is what "burns" Bernie. His campaign is attempting to transform those "pledged" Delegates into Zombie delegates who are not pledged to anyone and are free to vote for Sanders. Why would they consider doing that? Simple from a Sanders point of view - if Sanders carried their state by, say... 10 or 20 points in the Democratic Primary in their home state, should these "Super" Delegates consider reflecting the will of the voters in their state or keep their blinders on and vote AGAINST the interest of their own primary voters? Bernie argues that the answer is clear - these are at-large appointed Delegates and they should reflect the will of their electorate, regardless of who they may have been "pledged" to support. So far, there are 158 Undeclared Delegates. Hillary leads Bernie presently by 701 delegate votes including a Super-delegate count of 469 to 71. If those numbers were reversed, subtracting say 375 from Hillary and counting them for Bernie, the count would be 1337 for Hillary and 1386 for Bernie! See why Bernie is making the Super-delegate argument? Still, take the Super-delegates out altogether and Hillary leads 1243 Delegates to Bernie's 980 indicating the fact that Clinton has won 12% more Delegates in the rough and tumble of the primary process than Sanders to date (56 to 44). Add in the Super-delegates and you get a 26% difference - more than twice the elected Delegate spread.
On the Republican side, ZOMBIE delegates are delegates to the convention that are currently not pledged to anyone. In few states, delegates are simply appointed by the state Republican Committee without any pledge to vote for any particular candidate but to use their personal judgment to cast their ballot for the candidate that they believe best represents the Republican Party in their state and is better positioned to win in November. These are "unbound" Delegates. States that do this are Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, Guam, and American Samoa. Taken together, these ZOMBIES subject to recruitment by any candidate number 112 delegates - far higher than the 95 New York Delegates that the Donald plans to win in a few weeks. Another group of ZOMBIES are the collection of abandoned Delegates who were selected or elected to vote for candidates who "suspended' their campaigns. These include Delegates elected for Rubio, Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, and Paul. These "suspended" delegates number 26. A real question is whether or not these delegates will follow the lead of their failed candidates - most of whom oppose Trump - or if they follow their own instincts. With a close contest like this one, the answer to that question could really matter. I would bet that the pressure is on these ZOMBIES to support one or another and that they have already disconnected their phones, pulled the shades, and turned off their cell phones in favor of a "burner" phone. It wouldn't surprise me if they are presently hiding under the bed as well.
SUPERS or ZOMBIES - could be the key to the nominations in either or both parties. Stay tuned.... Onto Wisconsin and their 42 (Rep) winner-take-all delegates and the Dems with 96 proportional both by State and Congressional District. The present count is Trump - 736; Cruz - 463; Kasich - 158. (1237 needed). On the Dem side, presently, Clinton - 1712; Sanders - 1011; Uncommitted - 158. (2383 needed).
We have all watched the gradual, state-by-state contests and the accumulation of delegates - sometimes in winner-take-all, sometimes proportionate splits, and sometimes in primaries, sometimes in caucus states. One thing that we thought was sure, however, was that the delegates were pledged to one candidate or another. So, maybe not past the first or second ballot at the convention, based on the state rules for delegate behavior - but, you win a delegate, then they vote for you. So, what are the ZOMBIES? Well... on the Democratic side, some "Zombie" delegates are present from the start. They are called "Super-Delegates" and are selected under DNC rules and State Democratic Committee adopted Delegate Plans as approved by the DNC. They are elected officials, DNC Members from that state, other party officials such as the State Democratic Chairman, and a handful of others "elected" by the State Committee in Convention. These generally are self-pledged Delegates, are not elected by primaries or caucuses, and can vote for whoever they choose at any time, including the first ballot. What does that mean? If they are "pledged" to one candidate or another, are they not required to vote for that person? Answer: NO. They are the only Delegates that can change their minds, drop their "pledge" and switch sides BEFORE the first ballot at the Convention. And, that is what makes them SUPER-DELEGATES. If you ask does this really happen often? The answer is no. But, it can. On the Democratic side, Hillary has a GIANT lead in pledged Delegates who were pledged long ago before they were assigned these positions and before the state parade of primaries and caucuses. And, that is what "burns" Bernie. His campaign is attempting to transform those "pledged" Delegates into Zombie delegates who are not pledged to anyone and are free to vote for Sanders. Why would they consider doing that? Simple from a Sanders point of view - if Sanders carried their state by, say... 10 or 20 points in the Democratic Primary in their home state, should these "Super" Delegates consider reflecting the will of the voters in their state or keep their blinders on and vote AGAINST the interest of their own primary voters? Bernie argues that the answer is clear - these are at-large appointed Delegates and they should reflect the will of their electorate, regardless of who they may have been "pledged" to support. So far, there are 158 Undeclared Delegates. Hillary leads Bernie presently by 701 delegate votes including a Super-delegate count of 469 to 71. If those numbers were reversed, subtracting say 375 from Hillary and counting them for Bernie, the count would be 1337 for Hillary and 1386 for Bernie! See why Bernie is making the Super-delegate argument? Still, take the Super-delegates out altogether and Hillary leads 1243 Delegates to Bernie's 980 indicating the fact that Clinton has won 12% more Delegates in the rough and tumble of the primary process than Sanders to date (56 to 44). Add in the Super-delegates and you get a 26% difference - more than twice the elected Delegate spread.
On the Republican side, ZOMBIE delegates are delegates to the convention that are currently not pledged to anyone. In few states, delegates are simply appointed by the state Republican Committee without any pledge to vote for any particular candidate but to use their personal judgment to cast their ballot for the candidate that they believe best represents the Republican Party in their state and is better positioned to win in November. These are "unbound" Delegates. States that do this are Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, Guam, and American Samoa. Taken together, these ZOMBIES subject to recruitment by any candidate number 112 delegates - far higher than the 95 New York Delegates that the Donald plans to win in a few weeks. Another group of ZOMBIES are the collection of abandoned Delegates who were selected or elected to vote for candidates who "suspended' their campaigns. These include Delegates elected for Rubio, Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, and Paul. These "suspended" delegates number 26. A real question is whether or not these delegates will follow the lead of their failed candidates - most of whom oppose Trump - or if they follow their own instincts. With a close contest like this one, the answer to that question could really matter. I would bet that the pressure is on these ZOMBIES to support one or another and that they have already disconnected their phones, pulled the shades, and turned off their cell phones in favor of a "burner" phone. It wouldn't surprise me if they are presently hiding under the bed as well.
SUPERS or ZOMBIES - could be the key to the nominations in either or both parties. Stay tuned.... Onto Wisconsin and their 42 (Rep) winner-take-all delegates and the Dems with 96 proportional both by State and Congressional District. The present count is Trump - 736; Cruz - 463; Kasich - 158. (1237 needed). On the Dem side, presently, Clinton - 1712; Sanders - 1011; Uncommitted - 158. (2383 needed).
Thursday, March 17, 2016
PAY NO ATTENTION TO THAT MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN!
Who is that, anyway? While most of the Republican primary gang has been "Trumpified" over the past several months including Governors, Senators, and other insider figures, there persists a hidden group of "establishment" figures who have directed a substantial effort to derail the Trump Train through massive anti-Trump TV ads, radio ads, robo-calls from Mitt Romney and others, mail and personal visits. These men "behind the curtain" are in the death throws of the Republican "establishment" of fat-cats on K street and the political consultant class who have become financially fat and happy over the past 30 years or so. Their brand of the Republican Party has evolved over that time and has become more and more right wing and more distant from the rank and file, average voters. That enabled them to keep a grip on the party apparatus, and to hand-pick candidates, recommend appointments, craft strategy, raise cash, and enrich themselves along the way. No great shock that they will do whatever it takes to maintain the current "order" as well as their positions of leadership in that order. Donald Trump just does not represent them and, apparently, that may be the secret of his appeal. The most recent "stand" of the Republican Beltway Illuminati took place in Florida where one favorite son - Jeb Bush - had already been demolished by the Trump juggernaut, leaving the other favorite son - Marco Rubio - to carry on the fight. When the fog of war and the smoke of battle cleared on primary night, Donald Trump carried every Florida county in the state except one - Rubio's home county of Dade. No surprise, therefore, that Rubio took himself out of the race for the nomination and suspended his campaign that night. And, then there were three.....
Still, the "establishment" plotting continues.... Their candidates had included Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and a trial balloon of two with some others - now all out of the race. It appears that being defined as the candidate of the "establishment" is a near or even sure kiss of death. It certainly labels the designated candidate as yet another person bent on denying the will of the Republican primary electorate in preventing their selection - Donald Trump - from capturing the nomination of the party. If the party "leaders" turn around only to find that their "followers" are marching to the beat of a different drummer and heading elsewhere, it may be time to change direction or simply get out of the way. Leaders can only lead if they have followers. And, every new attempt to frustrate the selection of their voters by hatching yet another sub-plot to deny the will of the majority will only deepen resentment and increase the seismic pressure underscoring the volcanic explosion that is sure to take place in Cincinnati at their Convention. Quite the dangerous game....
Of course, all of the more recent plots depend on a strategy of getting to the Convention without Trump having the requisite number of delegate, votes to secure the nomination. If Trump gathers enough votes before that time, which is certainly more possible than Cruz or Kasich getting to the magic number, all bets are off and Trump will be the nominee. So, the first step is to frustrate Trump by somehow preventing him from getting to the secure delegate count. Will Christie's endorsement and Ben Carson's support add a few delegates? Where do the Rubio delegates go? Only time will tell if they release their delegates and are able to convince them to support Trump, another candidate, or whoever their personal choice might be.
The most recent trial balloon was floated by former House Speaker John Boehner who suggested that an "open" Convention could select Paul Ryan as the Party Nominee. Speaker Ryan quickly shot down that idea.... or, did he really. After all, he "shut down" any interest in becoming Speaker just a few months ago... and, finally agreed to take the position when he was drafted. Could the same happen in Cleveland? And, if something along those lines occurred, what would be the reaction of the Trump delegates? Just yesterday, The Donald said in response to that very question, that a riot was more likely than not if the will of the people was frustrated. Meanwhile, today more meetings are being held in the Beltway by self-described Conservatives to explore their options. These include stopping Donald Trump from getting the delegates necessary and manipulating the Convention process or, should Trump succeed and become the Republican Nominee, to quickly create a Conservative third party effort and run their own candidate in the fall, effectively splitting the Republican Party. Still, if the "establishment" plot was to succeed and Trump was denied the nomination because he was short a handful of delegate votes though far and away ahead of anyone else, would the predicted "riot" result in a walkout of the Trump parade who would then march to their own version of a third party effort? Or, will some Conservative leaders support Hillary as a way to prevent a Trump Presidency? Phew! Stay tuned.... this is going to be quite the ride!
My take is that Donald Trump will either gather enough delegate votes to win the nomination on the first ballot and become the Republican Presidential Nominee or he will come so close that it will become impossible to deny him the nomination. No matter how you slice it, the Cleveland Convention could be the most raucous political event in our lifetime.... and, spell the death knell of the Republican Party of our fathers.
Still, the "establishment" plotting continues.... Their candidates had included Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and a trial balloon of two with some others - now all out of the race. It appears that being defined as the candidate of the "establishment" is a near or even sure kiss of death. It certainly labels the designated candidate as yet another person bent on denying the will of the Republican primary electorate in preventing their selection - Donald Trump - from capturing the nomination of the party. If the party "leaders" turn around only to find that their "followers" are marching to the beat of a different drummer and heading elsewhere, it may be time to change direction or simply get out of the way. Leaders can only lead if they have followers. And, every new attempt to frustrate the selection of their voters by hatching yet another sub-plot to deny the will of the majority will only deepen resentment and increase the seismic pressure underscoring the volcanic explosion that is sure to take place in Cincinnati at their Convention. Quite the dangerous game....
Of course, all of the more recent plots depend on a strategy of getting to the Convention without Trump having the requisite number of delegate, votes to secure the nomination. If Trump gathers enough votes before that time, which is certainly more possible than Cruz or Kasich getting to the magic number, all bets are off and Trump will be the nominee. So, the first step is to frustrate Trump by somehow preventing him from getting to the secure delegate count. Will Christie's endorsement and Ben Carson's support add a few delegates? Where do the Rubio delegates go? Only time will tell if they release their delegates and are able to convince them to support Trump, another candidate, or whoever their personal choice might be.
The most recent trial balloon was floated by former House Speaker John Boehner who suggested that an "open" Convention could select Paul Ryan as the Party Nominee. Speaker Ryan quickly shot down that idea.... or, did he really. After all, he "shut down" any interest in becoming Speaker just a few months ago... and, finally agreed to take the position when he was drafted. Could the same happen in Cleveland? And, if something along those lines occurred, what would be the reaction of the Trump delegates? Just yesterday, The Donald said in response to that very question, that a riot was more likely than not if the will of the people was frustrated. Meanwhile, today more meetings are being held in the Beltway by self-described Conservatives to explore their options. These include stopping Donald Trump from getting the delegates necessary and manipulating the Convention process or, should Trump succeed and become the Republican Nominee, to quickly create a Conservative third party effort and run their own candidate in the fall, effectively splitting the Republican Party. Still, if the "establishment" plot was to succeed and Trump was denied the nomination because he was short a handful of delegate votes though far and away ahead of anyone else, would the predicted "riot" result in a walkout of the Trump parade who would then march to their own version of a third party effort? Or, will some Conservative leaders support Hillary as a way to prevent a Trump Presidency? Phew! Stay tuned.... this is going to be quite the ride!
My take is that Donald Trump will either gather enough delegate votes to win the nomination on the first ballot and become the Republican Presidential Nominee or he will come so close that it will become impossible to deny him the nomination. No matter how you slice it, the Cleveland Convention could be the most raucous political event in our lifetime.... and, spell the death knell of the Republican Party of our fathers.
Friday, March 11, 2016
Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum were sitting on a log......
OK... so, maybe I am getting a little jaded in this election cycle. Maybe I have come to expect each Republican Debate to be an action-filled "Friday night at the fights" slug-fest. Or, just another version of American Idol for adults. But, last night's Republican debate was a disappointing bit of "entertainment." No sparks, no fights, no insults or references to body parts - just bland, bland, bland, drivel. It seems that the anti-Trump movement, once the center focus of an effort to unseat the front-runner with millions of negative ads, press conferences by "respected" party "leaders" (read, establishment) like Romney, Speaker Ryan, and John McCain, on the Trump attack along with his opponents for the nomination, has fizzled. Designed to turn the corner in Michigan and Mississippi where it was hoped that Trump could be cut off and potentially defeated by Rubio, Cruz (Mississippi), or Kasich (Michigan), the entire effort flopped as the Trump support hardened and perhaps grew in some places. When will the Beltway learn that Trump;'s appeal is that HE IS NOT THEM? The Republican primary voters are clearly saying that they reject the ways of the Beltway, K Street Lobbyists, and the monied contributors who have strangled the effort to adopt more conservative policy. Trade deals that cost them their jobs and sent factories overseas, had the support of K Street and business interests.... working people be damned. If that sounds like the Republican Party of Warren Harding, you would be correct. The dramatic shift of working men and women to the Democratic Party in the 1930s resulted in the dominance of the Democratic party, Franklin Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, Johnson, Carter, and Clinton. OK... there were some Rs along the way, but the policies and laws of the New Deal and the Great Society adopted in the 30s and the 60s remained intact and many continue to be viewed as the "third rail" of current political discourse. Will we witness yet another massive abandonment of Republican Party principles in the 2016 election cycle as working families who became Reagan Democrats in the 1980's return home to the ranks and voter rolls of the Democratic Party? Or, if Trump is denied the nomination of the Republican party, will those working families follow him into the history books (and potentially the dust bin of political history) in a split-off third party effort led by Trump rather than join the ranks of Democrats? In a few months, if not in a week or two, we will know the answer to that question.
In any case, last night's Republican debate was a calm and civil affair.... and, likely, did not change many votes one way or another. As several observers/commentators said, it seemed that the Trump opponents have just 2 speeds - 1. bombast and insults with full-on attacks galore on Trump and, 2. calm civil discourse, almost ignoring Trump's flaws altogether. What happened to say... a 5 or 6 on the attack scale - a mixture of policy disagreements and legitimate attacks on Trump's policy or business experience rather than the size of his hands? On the eve of the next significant round of elections, particularly Florida and Ohio - must wins for Rubio and Kasich respectively - and places that, if won by Trump, could be game over, you would think that the anti-Trump strategists would have come up with a better, more effective strategy than simply hoping that the sky might fall all by itself while they sip civil tea on the debate stage. Sitting quietly on that log, with fingers crossed, and hoping for the collapse of the Trump train just won't do it for the opponents. We will see next week when the circus moves on to the rust-belt factories of Ohio and the political swamps of Florida.
Stay tuned...... it could be all over by next week.....
In any case, last night's Republican debate was a calm and civil affair.... and, likely, did not change many votes one way or another. As several observers/commentators said, it seemed that the Trump opponents have just 2 speeds - 1. bombast and insults with full-on attacks galore on Trump and, 2. calm civil discourse, almost ignoring Trump's flaws altogether. What happened to say... a 5 or 6 on the attack scale - a mixture of policy disagreements and legitimate attacks on Trump's policy or business experience rather than the size of his hands? On the eve of the next significant round of elections, particularly Florida and Ohio - must wins for Rubio and Kasich respectively - and places that, if won by Trump, could be game over, you would think that the anti-Trump strategists would have come up with a better, more effective strategy than simply hoping that the sky might fall all by itself while they sip civil tea on the debate stage. Sitting quietly on that log, with fingers crossed, and hoping for the collapse of the Trump train just won't do it for the opponents. We will see next week when the circus moves on to the rust-belt factories of Ohio and the political swamps of Florida.
Stay tuned...... it could be all over by next week.....
You've been TRUMPED!!!
We may be witnessing a historic re-alignment of the Republican brand in this race. In the 1964 race, the Conservative Party, once a totally separate entity who regularly lost elections as a third party alternative to the progressive Democrats and the moderate-to-conservative Republican candidates, succeeded in seizing the Republican party apparatus with the nomination of Barry Goldwater as their presidential candidate. Although he was crushed in the election by Democrat Lyndon Johnson, the scales had been tipped to the more conservative wing of the Republican Party. From that point, with the intervening candidacies of Ron Reagan, and the Bushes, the right-wing was inside the tent and slowly securing a more dominant role in party policy and campaigns. With the emergence of right-wing talk radio and the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, and others, a torrent of talk and bombast against the federal government's role in our lives became the issue. And, through a program of starvation through fiscal restraint and program cuts, the dismantling of the "Great Society" programs of the 60's and even attacks on earlier "New Deal" programs such as Social Security, defined the "new" Republican Party. The radical right, continuing it's assault on the central government, took the House with Newt Gingrich in 1994 and launched multiple attacks on program after program, slashing funding, and, ultimately brought on threats of government debt defaults and the first shut-down of the federal government in modern history - all to prove that the absence of the government didn't matter in the daily lives of average Americans. For the next 20 years right through today, the voices of the radical right-wing - Tea Party included - have railed against the mere existence of the federal government. The result is partisan gridlock, the inability of the federal government to perform their historic role in solving problems and addressing issues that face the nation and a general disrespect for the national institutions that are the symbols of the federal role in governance - the Congress, the Presidency, and the Federal Court system - the national institutional architecture. And, that is why the Congress sits at single-digit approval ratings - the lowest in modern history - and continues its total refusal of the legislative branch to seek common policy ground with the executive branch. The predictable result is right-wing encouragement of total disregard for federal authority as recently witnessed in the land-grab in Utah by local ranchers armed to the teeth. The lies and exaggerations used by the right - "Death Panels", "the Death Tax", the government plan to confiscate all guns, that Obama would change the law to become the permanent President, the Clinton's murdered Vince Foster, and other absurd statements or rumors circulated by talk-radio - have undermined and chipped away at the legitimacy of the federal government for decades. And, their goal of dismantling the Federal role in the architecture of American government as outlined and intended in the US Constitution continues. Enter Donald Trump.
Trump throws Republican right-wing orthodoxy on guns, the choice issue, foreign policy, and a variety of social programs, including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and others right out the window, without hesitation. And, that gives rise to the charge from his opponents that he is really not a true conservative, now well practiced in its extreme right form. In spite of that contrast, Trump carries state after state and may very well become the Republican nominee by summer. If he doesn't gather the requisite number of delegates to win outright on the first ballot, perhaps he can add those delegates pledged to Chris Christie or Ben Carson, though just a relative handful, and, they could tip the balance. If, on the other hand, Trump arrives far in the lead but short of the magic number required, and is then denied through some "establishment" back-room deals and Party Rule maneuvers, we may witness a split and a war within the Republican ranks that holds the potential to destroy the party altogether, perhaps leading to several minor parties - the Tea Party, Conservative Party, the Wing-Nut Party, Evangelical Party, the Endless War Party, the Oligarchs Party headed by Trump, and the few remaining Republican moderates in the decimated wasteland and rubble of the 20th Century Republican Party. But, however many or few warring camps result, that pretty much guarantees the election of the Democratic Nominee. But, which one? Hillary? Or, will we all "feel the Bern?"
After all of this, will the Democratic Nomination come down to a coin toss as well? Will the later-voting states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and California tip the balance on the Dem side? Can it be that Sanders will carry Ohio and the Mid-west rust belt states as he did Michigan and deny Hillary a clear majority on the first ballot? Is it possible that the huge lead that Hillary has in the Super Delegate count - who are free to change their votes at any time unlike Pledged Delegates - will change to better reflect the votes in their states? Might they abstain on the first ballot and throw the Democratic Convention into turmoil and yet another divisive convention floor fight? Have I entered the Twilight Zone???? Hillary, though close, does not have the nomination locked up yet and Bernie's position on trade deals is catching fire... Will that resonate in places like New York and New Jersey? Pennsylvania? Will the youth vote drag themselves off campus and get to the polls to sink Hillary on a lark and , instead, support a mid-70's "democratic socialist" from Brooklyn? Will young women fail to learn the lessons of the past and refuse to break the biggest glass ceiling ever breached? Will the FBI intervene on Hillary's e-mails? And, can Bernie really, really, capture the nomination? If so, can Bernie win against Trump? Remember that Hillary's polling numbers also reflect the 20+ years of constant Republican and Right Wing assault on her since her days in the White House as well as her years in the Senate and then as President Obama's Secretary of State. How would Bernie's numbers stack up after just 6 months of political assault on his policies, history, ethics, and character should he become the Nominee? Would he crumble or fight back with skill? Could the Presidential election become an epic struggle of the oligarchs against working men and women? Phew! How wild can this get?
Trump throws Republican right-wing orthodoxy on guns, the choice issue, foreign policy, and a variety of social programs, including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and others right out the window, without hesitation. And, that gives rise to the charge from his opponents that he is really not a true conservative, now well practiced in its extreme right form. In spite of that contrast, Trump carries state after state and may very well become the Republican nominee by summer. If he doesn't gather the requisite number of delegates to win outright on the first ballot, perhaps he can add those delegates pledged to Chris Christie or Ben Carson, though just a relative handful, and, they could tip the balance. If, on the other hand, Trump arrives far in the lead but short of the magic number required, and is then denied through some "establishment" back-room deals and Party Rule maneuvers, we may witness a split and a war within the Republican ranks that holds the potential to destroy the party altogether, perhaps leading to several minor parties - the Tea Party, Conservative Party, the Wing-Nut Party, Evangelical Party, the Endless War Party, the Oligarchs Party headed by Trump, and the few remaining Republican moderates in the decimated wasteland and rubble of the 20th Century Republican Party. But, however many or few warring camps result, that pretty much guarantees the election of the Democratic Nominee. But, which one? Hillary? Or, will we all "feel the Bern?"
After all of this, will the Democratic Nomination come down to a coin toss as well? Will the later-voting states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and California tip the balance on the Dem side? Can it be that Sanders will carry Ohio and the Mid-west rust belt states as he did Michigan and deny Hillary a clear majority on the first ballot? Is it possible that the huge lead that Hillary has in the Super Delegate count - who are free to change their votes at any time unlike Pledged Delegates - will change to better reflect the votes in their states? Might they abstain on the first ballot and throw the Democratic Convention into turmoil and yet another divisive convention floor fight? Have I entered the Twilight Zone???? Hillary, though close, does not have the nomination locked up yet and Bernie's position on trade deals is catching fire... Will that resonate in places like New York and New Jersey? Pennsylvania? Will the youth vote drag themselves off campus and get to the polls to sink Hillary on a lark and , instead, support a mid-70's "democratic socialist" from Brooklyn? Will young women fail to learn the lessons of the past and refuse to break the biggest glass ceiling ever breached? Will the FBI intervene on Hillary's e-mails? And, can Bernie really, really, capture the nomination? If so, can Bernie win against Trump? Remember that Hillary's polling numbers also reflect the 20+ years of constant Republican and Right Wing assault on her since her days in the White House as well as her years in the Senate and then as President Obama's Secretary of State. How would Bernie's numbers stack up after just 6 months of political assault on his policies, history, ethics, and character should he become the Nominee? Would he crumble or fight back with skill? Could the Presidential election become an epic struggle of the oligarchs against working men and women? Phew! How wild can this get?
Sunday, March 6, 2016
THE RETURN OF THE JEDI - or how the Republican Establishment's EMPIRE STRUCK BACK.
If "the Donald" has taken on the political persona of Darth Vader threatening the order in the Republican Universe on the Dark Side, then what is needed is a Hans Solo and a good dose of the establishment FORCE. Enter Mitt Romney as Hans and, don't you know ? THE EMPIRE STRIKES BACK! Loaded for bear, Romney took to the stage to make the establishment case that Donald Trump is wholly unqualified - by temperament, experience, or level of sanity, to become the Republican Nominee in 2016 or at any time in the next 1000 years. As the mouthpiece for the Beltway Rs, Romney encouraged the Republican primary voters to reject Trump altogether as a bigoted, unreconstructed liberal and (OMG) a supporter of Democrats past. Admitting that he "evolved" in his policy positions, Trump argued that he had taken the pledge to support the "nominee", some months ago when it was less clear who might prevail. And, after all, Romney himself proudly accepted Donald Trump's endorsement for his Presidential candidacy (not to mention cash) just 4 years ago. Mitt didn't bob and weave, duck, or complain then. Romney attacked Trump's character, policies, business expertise, his corporate failures, and noted that he destroyed or bankrupted more businesses than succeeded. Romney predicted that Trump's nomination would spell disaster for the Republican Party and the Conservative Movement. PHEW! Tough stuff. John McCain joined in the dressing-down publicly and Mitch McConnell suggested that if Trump won the nomination, Republican Senators should run TV ads against Trump to gain some distance from his Presidential bid if they were to survive politically and get re-elected in their own states. And, then, of course, the Beltway Republican "establishment" sent their talking heads out to various media outlets to join with Romney to press their point in this last-ditch effort to stop the Trump bandwagon and to deny him a majority of delegates, resulting in a brokered Convention. Once there, they would again be back in control and they could hand-pick their candidate for President, without those pesky and uninformed "voters" who made the mistake of not voting for George Bush in the first place. So, they deserve to be ignored and their votes and their selection of candidate rejected. Talk about arrogance....
My take is considerably different. And, it all revolves around the Mother's Milk of politics - money.
We are witnessing the rejection of the modern Republican Party - the party of Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Trey Gowdy, and the hateful and obstructionist Tea Party. In fact, this isn't the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan, Dwight Eisenhower, or even George Bush. Today's Republican Party is a far cry from the moderate/centrist party with a conservative fiscal outlook that was capable of governing. You see, governing requires consensus and compromise, not obstinate positions without flexibility or a refusal to perform the duties of the office. Governing since our nation began meant debate, negotiations, and, finally, agreement in the best interests of the nation. Today, evidence of any willingness by a Republican to have a reasonable discussion with others who hold a different viewpoint from the hard and fast CONSERVATIVE position on whatever topic - choice, guns, immigrants, social security, health care, education, taxes on the wealthy, rebuilding roads and bridges, keeping bloated military spending in check to name few - would be ridden out of the Republican Party on a rail in short order. The Ronald Reagan who negotiated with Tip O'Neill to save Social Security in the 80's would have been impeached by the right-wing if that occurred today - simply for meeting with O'Neill in the first place.
In the 1990s the Republican Party was "seized" in a hostile take-over by the Conservative Party. Conservative purists insisted on conformity during the Gingrich Revolution and the Contract with America. I remember the first day that Newt was sworn in as Speaker of the House, the entire Republican membership of the House had to sign "the pledge" - the Contract with America - and Newt would use the power of his office to hold them to it. The House, as a result, became a far less collegial place for policy discussion and debate and the Democratic Senate, likewise, dug in the the long haul. From that point forward, through Clinton, Bush, and Obama, the battle has raged on. Add Grover Norquist to the soup with his "no tax" pledge as a test for any Republican running for any office, and the rise of the far-right, take-no-prisoners Tea Party wingnuts, with their stalemate - no government, no debate, no agreement, tear-it-all-down, sequestration of die, government shut-downs are good, and let's default on the national debt for fun - and you get to this year. The year of Trump.
For near 20 years, the Conservative takeover of the Republican Party entrenched, took over the policy development through corporate-funded "think-tanks" and developed the take-over of media outlets so as to spread their propaganda over the airwaves and TV of the nation. "Fair and balanced" it is not. Nor, was it planned to be so. The media plan did inflame debates and polarize policy almost guaranteeing that compromise would be impossible. That was the plan - government fails again and again. But, why do that? Simple - the more that the federal government was the scene of failure, frustration, and disappointment, the more the public would see that it was dysfunctional and an undue financial burden. Why pay for failure, after all? If government was working, building, solving problems, improving education, roads, bridges, and increasing economic opportunity while caring for seniors , veterans, and disabled. then all would be well. So, the mission was clear. In order to destroy the federal government, it had to appear to be a complete failure first. Mission number one. What did Mitch McConnell announce as his role and mission when President Obama first took office? In a press conference, he announced that his mission as Senate Minority Leader (and, later as Senate Majority Leader) was and is to make sure that President Obama's Administration is a total failure. Damn the public, the goal was to prevent Obama from being re-elected through making it appear that HE was a failure.... and, not that the Republican obstructionists in the Congress caused the inability of the government to respond to many concerns held in the electorate. The result of that strategy is that President Obama was re-elected, Congress is viewed positively in single digits for the first time in modern history, and, in spite of the naked obstruction by the Right-wing Republicans, now fully purged of moderates, the nation was lifted out of the Republican Recession much more slowly than would otherwise had been the case, if legitimate debate, and compromise would have been the order of the day.
And, so, tired of "losing" the cultural wars that the Right-wing Nuts promised would be won if they were elected, tired of broken promises of lower taxes, abolishing the IRS, the Department of Education, and a chicken in every pot, frustrations grew.... and, this year, the volcano exploded. And, here we are.
The pundits often talk about "the expectation game." Raising expectations so much that it is impossible to match or exceed the expectation, is a losing proposition. Well, the Tea Party and the Conservative Movement, including the media gang fueling these folks the whole way - Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Hannity, and others - the FOX NEWS gang, and the right-wing talking heads on TV and on K Street in DC (the lobbyists and corporate interests who fueled the takeover), have conspired to create high expectations of success. Instead, these efforts, showy as they were, failed as they were designed to fail. Because, a failing national government was a necessary first step to erode public confidence and raise frustration and anger toward the government in order to dismantle it - or at least, the Great Society components of it. This is the state's rights civil war with the war part.. and the casualties not so obvious. With the "Citizens United" Supreme Court decision, the monied interests saw a path to complete their agenda and return the US to the "Golden Age" of corporate greed and American Oligarchs using hundreds of millions of dollars to elect candidates who would tow the line and do their bidding. The Illuminati indeed. Dark money by the train load, hidden from public view, spending without any cap at all to spout propaganda, spread lies, spin rumors, or by votes - whatever it takes - to seize control of the levers of power.... That was and is their goal. And, right now, the Donald is in their way. He just refused to go along with the plan.... And, instead of agreeing to assist the "establishment" to seize the levers of power, he has chosen to grab them for himself! So far, he is on track to gain the first step - the Republican Nomination for the presidency. But, whether it is the Donald or the establishment Republicans who wins, it is all about them... and not about us. Regardless of whether Trump succeeds in the days and elections ahead or not, it is time to wake up and smell the conspiracy of money, politics, and power. We need our nation back as a functional democracy and not the sham democracy that we have become. Why, even Senator Marco Rubio explained why he has missed more Senate votes than any other Senator in memory by commenting, "why go there? We don't do anything." And, that's really the point... isn't it?
My take is considerably different. And, it all revolves around the Mother's Milk of politics - money.
We are witnessing the rejection of the modern Republican Party - the party of Newt Gingrich, Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, Trey Gowdy, and the hateful and obstructionist Tea Party. In fact, this isn't the Republican Party of Ronald Reagan, Dwight Eisenhower, or even George Bush. Today's Republican Party is a far cry from the moderate/centrist party with a conservative fiscal outlook that was capable of governing. You see, governing requires consensus and compromise, not obstinate positions without flexibility or a refusal to perform the duties of the office. Governing since our nation began meant debate, negotiations, and, finally, agreement in the best interests of the nation. Today, evidence of any willingness by a Republican to have a reasonable discussion with others who hold a different viewpoint from the hard and fast CONSERVATIVE position on whatever topic - choice, guns, immigrants, social security, health care, education, taxes on the wealthy, rebuilding roads and bridges, keeping bloated military spending in check to name few - would be ridden out of the Republican Party on a rail in short order. The Ronald Reagan who negotiated with Tip O'Neill to save Social Security in the 80's would have been impeached by the right-wing if that occurred today - simply for meeting with O'Neill in the first place.
In the 1990s the Republican Party was "seized" in a hostile take-over by the Conservative Party. Conservative purists insisted on conformity during the Gingrich Revolution and the Contract with America. I remember the first day that Newt was sworn in as Speaker of the House, the entire Republican membership of the House had to sign "the pledge" - the Contract with America - and Newt would use the power of his office to hold them to it. The House, as a result, became a far less collegial place for policy discussion and debate and the Democratic Senate, likewise, dug in the the long haul. From that point forward, through Clinton, Bush, and Obama, the battle has raged on. Add Grover Norquist to the soup with his "no tax" pledge as a test for any Republican running for any office, and the rise of the far-right, take-no-prisoners Tea Party wingnuts, with their stalemate - no government, no debate, no agreement, tear-it-all-down, sequestration of die, government shut-downs are good, and let's default on the national debt for fun - and you get to this year. The year of Trump.
For near 20 years, the Conservative takeover of the Republican Party entrenched, took over the policy development through corporate-funded "think-tanks" and developed the take-over of media outlets so as to spread their propaganda over the airwaves and TV of the nation. "Fair and balanced" it is not. Nor, was it planned to be so. The media plan did inflame debates and polarize policy almost guaranteeing that compromise would be impossible. That was the plan - government fails again and again. But, why do that? Simple - the more that the federal government was the scene of failure, frustration, and disappointment, the more the public would see that it was dysfunctional and an undue financial burden. Why pay for failure, after all? If government was working, building, solving problems, improving education, roads, bridges, and increasing economic opportunity while caring for seniors , veterans, and disabled. then all would be well. So, the mission was clear. In order to destroy the federal government, it had to appear to be a complete failure first. Mission number one. What did Mitch McConnell announce as his role and mission when President Obama first took office? In a press conference, he announced that his mission as Senate Minority Leader (and, later as Senate Majority Leader) was and is to make sure that President Obama's Administration is a total failure. Damn the public, the goal was to prevent Obama from being re-elected through making it appear that HE was a failure.... and, not that the Republican obstructionists in the Congress caused the inability of the government to respond to many concerns held in the electorate. The result of that strategy is that President Obama was re-elected, Congress is viewed positively in single digits for the first time in modern history, and, in spite of the naked obstruction by the Right-wing Republicans, now fully purged of moderates, the nation was lifted out of the Republican Recession much more slowly than would otherwise had been the case, if legitimate debate, and compromise would have been the order of the day.
And, so, tired of "losing" the cultural wars that the Right-wing Nuts promised would be won if they were elected, tired of broken promises of lower taxes, abolishing the IRS, the Department of Education, and a chicken in every pot, frustrations grew.... and, this year, the volcano exploded. And, here we are.
The pundits often talk about "the expectation game." Raising expectations so much that it is impossible to match or exceed the expectation, is a losing proposition. Well, the Tea Party and the Conservative Movement, including the media gang fueling these folks the whole way - Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Hannity, and others - the FOX NEWS gang, and the right-wing talking heads on TV and on K Street in DC (the lobbyists and corporate interests who fueled the takeover), have conspired to create high expectations of success. Instead, these efforts, showy as they were, failed as they were designed to fail. Because, a failing national government was a necessary first step to erode public confidence and raise frustration and anger toward the government in order to dismantle it - or at least, the Great Society components of it. This is the state's rights civil war with the war part.. and the casualties not so obvious. With the "Citizens United" Supreme Court decision, the monied interests saw a path to complete their agenda and return the US to the "Golden Age" of corporate greed and American Oligarchs using hundreds of millions of dollars to elect candidates who would tow the line and do their bidding. The Illuminati indeed. Dark money by the train load, hidden from public view, spending without any cap at all to spout propaganda, spread lies, spin rumors, or by votes - whatever it takes - to seize control of the levers of power.... That was and is their goal. And, right now, the Donald is in their way. He just refused to go along with the plan.... And, instead of agreeing to assist the "establishment" to seize the levers of power, he has chosen to grab them for himself! So far, he is on track to gain the first step - the Republican Nomination for the presidency. But, whether it is the Donald or the establishment Republicans who wins, it is all about them... and not about us. Regardless of whether Trump succeeds in the days and elections ahead or not, it is time to wake up and smell the conspiracy of money, politics, and power. We need our nation back as a functional democracy and not the sham democracy that we have become. Why, even Senator Marco Rubio explained why he has missed more Senate votes than any other Senator in memory by commenting, "why go there? We don't do anything." And, that's really the point... isn't it?
AND, SO IT GOES... Turn-Around IS fair play, after all....
Hillary BURNED the "Bern" last week in South Carolina and the entire southern Super Tuesday crowd..... Turning the tables on the Sanders campaign and bursting the New Hampshire Bernie bubble that has been touted as an indication that the voters were fed up with the "establishment" as soon enough, Hillary would be out of the race as the unhappy electorate rose up in support of the outsider, Bernie Sanders. New Hampshire, of course, was the proof! Oops....The bell sounded on election day in South Carolina, and the deluge began. Carrying the state with a 70+ point margin and a larger vote percentage of the Black vote than Barak Obama carried in 2008, Hillary "spanked" Bernie in SC . In fact, the Black Vote landslide that swept Bernie out to sea without a life preserver, was so strong that Bernie literally looked shell-shocked on election night. He will recover, of course, and will no doubt continue his campaign for real change in the party and in the election system right through the convention and beyond. Good for him. On the other hand, I have some real doubts that Bernie can breathe new life into his campaign... and find another path to the nomination. There is no "there" there...... If Sanders cannot find a way to do better in the minority communities of America, the glory road may become rutted and muddy. He may still become the "Happy Warrior" as a candidate of another era - Al Smith - was known in the 1930.....and slog his way into the Democratic Convention muddy and battered as Al Smith (from NY BTW) also did. But, then again, he lost too.
On the Republican side, came yet another great debate. A "great debate?" What a total disgrace. Name-calling like "liar", "fraud", "little Marco", Big Donald, total fake, and some veiled reference to someone's hands and manhood? What about topics like... say, immigration reform, economic growth and jobs, budget deficits, educational reform, infrastructure repair and expansion, foreign policy, war and peace, international trade, global warming and other environmental issues? At least one Republican, John Kasich, has the maturity and the common sense to refuse to participate in this national embarrassment, and, instead, focus on real issues that need to be addressed. As a Governor of a state, Ohio, Kasich knows that problems that are identified, need to be addressed. Schoolyard insults do nothing to either advance the solution ball or inform the public regarding options. I can tell you, one really unacceptable response to any looming problem cannot be to do nothing at all - which has been the Congressional Republican response to the very problem issues that they raise. Instead of a discourse of policy alternatives, we get a schoolyard brawl laced with vulgarity, insults and innuendo. At least the Democrats - Bernie and Hillary - have both put forward solid policy suggestions and alternatives for voters to consider.
More and more this race is looking like a contest between a screamer , Donald Trump representing some disappointed and disaffected Republicans and little else, and Hillary Clinton, an experienced and brilliant, if a bit battle-scarred, candidate. Of course, opposing candidates in both parties continue to make a case that they have a path to the nomination. With each passing week, it would appear that the "path" for them must run right through the biggest church that they can find. Pretty soon, they will need a miracle, and not a path.
On the Republican side, came yet another great debate. A "great debate?" What a total disgrace. Name-calling like "liar", "fraud", "little Marco", Big Donald, total fake, and some veiled reference to someone's hands and manhood? What about topics like... say, immigration reform, economic growth and jobs, budget deficits, educational reform, infrastructure repair and expansion, foreign policy, war and peace, international trade, global warming and other environmental issues? At least one Republican, John Kasich, has the maturity and the common sense to refuse to participate in this national embarrassment, and, instead, focus on real issues that need to be addressed. As a Governor of a state, Ohio, Kasich knows that problems that are identified, need to be addressed. Schoolyard insults do nothing to either advance the solution ball or inform the public regarding options. I can tell you, one really unacceptable response to any looming problem cannot be to do nothing at all - which has been the Congressional Republican response to the very problem issues that they raise. Instead of a discourse of policy alternatives, we get a schoolyard brawl laced with vulgarity, insults and innuendo. At least the Democrats - Bernie and Hillary - have both put forward solid policy suggestions and alternatives for voters to consider.
More and more this race is looking like a contest between a screamer , Donald Trump representing some disappointed and disaffected Republicans and little else, and Hillary Clinton, an experienced and brilliant, if a bit battle-scarred, candidate. Of course, opposing candidates in both parties continue to make a case that they have a path to the nomination. With each passing week, it would appear that the "path" for them must run right through the biggest church that they can find. Pretty soon, they will need a miracle, and not a path.
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