WOW! Finally, the great cage fighting that we have all witnessed during the Republican debates preceding these primary elections.... did not shake up the Trump train. Instead, Trump, though under heavy attack, seemed to have survived and prospered. The Donald carried all of the South Carolina congressional districts and therefore was awarded every single delegate votes from the South Carolina in spite of endorsements from many SC Republican members of Congress, notably Trey (Howdy) Gowdy, and Nikki Haley, the popular Governor of the state who both endorsed Rubio.
The election did clear the field somewhat with Chris Christie leaving the race and, after spending more than $70 million, Jeb Bush. Bush, the early presumptive front-runner and brother to one President and son to another, with the bulk of the Republican establishment and campaign cash bulging out of two accounts - the direct campaign account and the "Super PAC' supporting Bush, never scored out of the single digits. So much for the role of: 1. the "establishment"; 2. the Bush legacy; and, 3. the influence of cash-in-the-bank.
And, then, there were 5. In order of finish, Trump, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, and Carson. And, in the western contest in Nevada, after yet another bruising debate loaded with personal attacks and insults, Trump again prevails - by an even larger margin - followed by Rubio who gained some space between he and Cruz. Though still close, Rubio has bested Cruz twice now and seems to be gaining ground over the Texas Senator, but not gaining on Trump. Kasich, the most moderate voice on the stage and the only Governor left in the contest came in a distant 4th, followed by Carson. My guess is that Kasich will remain in the contest until the mid-march primaries in the Midwest in the hope of gaining ground on the three front-runners, and staying alive as a moderate and reasonable alternative to the right-wing crowd currently dominating the field. Why Carson continues in the race, is a mystery. I cannot see any scenario in which Carson could prevail in the primaries or at the convention, should a brokered convention be the result of the primary season. Or, is Trump the moderate alternative??????
Trump has taken some unusual policy positions quite different from the others on the stage. These include saying that Planned Parenthood provides valuable and necessary services for women in America. Of course, he stated that he will not provide funding for abortions, mirroring the other candidate positions, and he states that he favors antiabortion exceptions for rape and incest - a position that Cruz opposes. He describes himself as a "deal-maker" rather than a purist advocate of "my way of the highway", he says he "likes" single-payer systems that work in other places, unlike his opponents, he opposes recent trade deals and supports higher tariffs, and opposes any cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid and, instead, says that we need to increase benefits provided by these bedrock progressive social programs. It seems that the Donald can say anything at anytime
and grow stronger or, at least, not lose supporter to other candidates. Perhaps we have entered not only an anti-establishment political phase and an "outsider" positive environment, but a post-policy era as well. Or, perhaps the Trump strength results from being a self-funded candidate and appears to be a strong leader, not afraid to speak his mind. Maybe the Republican primary electorate is seeing him as uncontrolled, unbought by Beltway money and influence, and unafraid. At this writing, it appears that, barring some catastrophic event, it is difficult to see how either Rubio or Cruz can overtake Trump in the remaining primaries or how Kasich or Carson can long survive. By the end of this month, look for the field to lose 2 candidates (those in single digits), and possibly 3, if Senator Rubio loses the Florida primary election (notably a winner-take-all election) to Trump. Right now, current poll data reveals that Trump is leading Rubio in Florida and is closely behind Cruz in Texas. With the Texas primary next week, should Trump beat Cruz, the anti-Trump Republican cabal plan could be that Cruz drops out and endorses Rubio before the Florida primary in the hope that at least one of the pair survives to continue the battle. If this sound a bit far fetched, I agree, And, that's why I say that I cannot really see a path for any of the non-Trump candidates to take Trump out as the nominee of the Republican Party.
And, now.... onto Super Tuesday and the thirteen state primaries next week.
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