RISKY BUSINESS
In general, I have always been an optimist. I expect the best of everything and everyone. That would usually make me a good prospect for hustlers, fraud artists, phone and internet sales pitchmen, and the Fuller Brush door-to-door salesman. It would also attract me to the roulette wheel, the blackjack table, and the slot machine. And, on the streets of New York, a real sucker for three-card monte.
Like other games of chance, three-card monte is a street game often seen in NYC that pits the operator and the player in a contest to find the selected "card" (though it might be a pea under a cup or shell). If the player selects the right card or cup, the player wins. If not, then the operator (often called the dealer), wins. In this game, there are few moving parts - just 4 - and only one objective - find the hidden card or pea. Risk as much as you want in this contest. And, of course, you can walk away with just a small loss if you prefer to do so. Optimists like me often get caught up in the belief that sooner or later, we are bound to be skilled enough or lucky enough to win. The same hold true for slot machines, blackjack, and roulette. After all, if you are a pessimist and think that you cannot win, then why buy that lottery ticket, right? The optimist believes that that they will win, so will play; the pessimist thinks that they will lose, and refuses. Risky business... But, I am an optimist.
Politics is sort of a risky business too. As an optimist, with deeply held progressive beliefs, I felt pretty good one year ago this month. As a long-time activist Democrat, Liberal, and Progressive, I was happy to see that the American voters twice elected Barak Obama as our first African-American President and that the progress that was made over those 8 years would become the base for further progress in social justice and economic opportunity in the years ahead. And, I just could not wait until election 2016 took place so I could cast my vote for yet another historic first - the election of the first woman President, Hillary Clinton. After all, with the Republican candidate being a neanderthal narcissist with orange hair and a nasty attitude and the poll data consistently indicating that he would lose by a substantial margin, I was almost giddy and my optimism was through the roof. When election day arrived I was ready for a great celebration..... and, then, reality came crashing down. That pesky pea was NOT under the cup that I had selected. Donald Trump had - somehow - been elected.... Like many others, I was numb with disbelief. But, that sometimes happens with optimists.
CONCON IS A GIANT GAMBLE
The NY State Constitution provides that a referendum be held every 20 years offering the electorate the opportunity to hold a constitutional convention to amend, reshape, or re-write the entire state constitution. Heady stuff. And, given the problems that we currently face, the prospect for making additional progress (winning) is very attractive - especially for progressive optimists. Issues like gerrymandering, money in politics, special interest influence, political corruption, criminal justice reform, expanded and affordable access to education including college, women rights, gender equality, equal pay, minimum wage, unfunded mandates, expanded individual rights, increasing affordable housing opportunities, protecting the environment - air, water, land, open space, preventing fracking, regulating pipeline placement and many other issues could be addressed! While all of that and more is possible.... but... is it likely?
New York state, like California, is a progressive state. We enjoy one of the best Medicaid programs in the nation, especially for those requiring nursing home level of care. We opted into expanded Medicaid too. We are one of the few states that expanded gun control through the adoption of the Safe Act in January 2013 after the tragedy at Sandy Hook. NY has strong labor protections, a rising minimum wage, and constitutionally protected pensions for state/public workers. We have environmental protections in place, and lands protected from development as open space by "forever wild" and "forest preserve" designations. Women and minorities are protected and are assured of equal treatment either under law or in the constitution. While these laws are not perfectly enforced and we have a long way to go, the legal basis for enforcement is in place. In addition, a woman's right to control her own body is assured in NY State law. Can these embedded rights and protections be altered or eliminated? Can educational funding be reduced? Can women's rights be eroded? Can the Safe Act be reversed or erased? Can protected lands be released for development? Once the NY State Constitution is opened up, anything can happen.
As you can see, we have a great opportunity to make substantial progress... or, are at great risk of losing ground. Which is more likely to happen? You might say that the NY electorate has demonstrated time and again that it leans liberal and is a reliable blue state that Trump lost to Hillary just last year. Or, you might be concerned about the "dark money" that could be used - without any restriction or cap whatsoever - in electing delegates to a constitutional convention. So, one might ask, does the process make me more or less concerned in protecting the progress already made or making further progress forward? Could the deck be stacked? Let's look.
As you know, Trump, Bannon, the Mercers, the Koch brothers and many other monied interests have been chasing a strategy of dismantling the "deep state." As a part of that strategy, the Mercers invested millions in Trump, Faso, and others in NY State. Post election 2016, the Mercer family has spent buckets of cash in support of a scheme known as "Reclaim New York." They mean to re-claim NY from US!
DELEGATE ELECTION: As bad as the current campaign finance laws might be, the rules that apply here are worse. Unlike other elections - say, for Governor, State Senate or Assembly, or your local offices, there are no disclosure laws and no caps on individual expenditure or contributions that apply to constitutional convention delegates. That means, that these seats could literally be bought by the highest bidder. Give 10 points to the Mercers and the other billionaires.
TINKER OR TRASH: If the Mercers and their ilk elect the majority of delegates, would they tinker or trash the current document? I think that you know the answer to that question.
WHAT WOULD THEY LIKELY DO?; You already know where they stand. Lower taxes for the wealthy and corporations and dismantle programs and policies that assist you. Erode workers rights and rights for women and minorities. Under-fund public schools and send that money to the private sector. Increase criminal penalties for non-violent violations to re-populate the jails and then privatize prisons to maximize corporate profits. Reduce or eliminate pensions for workers. Reduce healthcare coverage and use the savings to reduce taxes on wealth. Weaken voting rights, suppress voting - especially among minority communities - and gerrymander election districts here as they have done in state after state across the nation, to cement in Republican control of the levers of power in the state.
THE PUBLIC VOTES, RIGHT?: Sure. Whatever the convention produces, the electorate votes on November 5, 2019. 2019 is an off-off year election here - no presidential, no congressional, no governor or legislature... and, that means low-low turnout. A very low turnout, in turn, means that money in the campaign weighs heavily on the outcome. TV ads, spin, campaign mail, radio and all the rest will greatly influence the outcome. And, I remind you, that this race is peculiar and different from other candidate campaigns because wealth will matter greatly... and the Mercers, Kochs, and the Trump crowd know that. I am not so confident that those who turn out that year would be reflective of the usual voting profile for NY State. Instead, the turnout could be responding to the clarion call of Trump rallies, Bannon bulls$@t, and a massive financial effort to suppress some votes and buy others (not to mention Russian Facebook ads....), and vote to change a constitution that they desperately want to change and, if they succeed, could not be fixed for another 20 years! OUCH!
"SO, ASK YOURSELF ONE QUESTION - DO I FEEL LUCKY TODAY",
Clint Eastwood, Dirty Harry, 1971
"Pick a card.... any card at all." "Find the pea." "Place your bet." As I mentioned up front, I was an optimist....until last fall one year ago. Those in favor of the convention process seem to hope that goodness and mercy will prevail and that the delegates will be pure of heart. I saw that optimism go up in smoke on election night 2016, sacrificed to the combined powers of Trumper anger, Bannon hate and bravado, and Mercer family money. Since then, we have paid dearly as a nation and as a community of people. Immigrants, working families, minorities, and the middle class have been under attack since that night and the assault continues. As the US Army saying goes, hope is not a plan. I cannot let my innate optimism lead me into yet another Trump-trap. The risks are too great, the protections and programs too precious, and costs too much to roll the dice. My new-found pessimism tells me to walk away.
VOTE NO ON QUESTION #1: CONCON.
You said whay I couldn't. Excellent. I hope people understand and will vote to maintain what we already have in place, not to take the chance and probably lose. Thank you for writing this.
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