AND THE BEAT GOES ON.... HISTORY HAS TURNED THE PAGE... AND DRUMS KEEP POUNDING RHYTHM TO THE BRAIN...

 

 

Election Day - Nov. 2, 2021. What's ahead in 2022 and 24?
A Disaster?
Or, something else????
 

As I write today - 2 days after the election that took place this fall.... the pundits report the outcome of elections focused on both Virginia and New Jersey.... Know why?  Simple!  Those are the only two states that hold elections for Governor in the first year of a Presidential term - this time Biden.... So, "focus on that" is what is said over and over.  Makes for good headlines.... The primary point being made appears in the cartoon above.  With Biden in the White House, Dems in narrow control of both Houses in Congress, and growing frustration with the failure to pass both the Infrastructure Legislation in the House, the Voting Rights bills in the Senate, and the Reconciliation - Build Back Better - proposal in either location... does that mean that the Dems are the "Do Nothing" Party????  Or, are the Red, Right-wing Republicans - with guns ablaze -the gang holding up the US Stage Coach and preventing progress and recovery and then blaming the Dems for doing nothing?  Lets take a look....

So, lets look into the election "rabbit hole"... and discover!

Every election outcome is "influenced" by candidates, parties, policy positions, ads on radio, TV, and newspapers plus mail stuffed in your mailbox and a knock - or ten - at your door or a ring - or ten - on your phone.  Message, after message, after message....  On the other hand, your view, attitude, needs, and cares count far more than the "pitchman" at your door.  So, was it you?  Or, was it in the messages? Or, was it the "influencers?"  Did the Rs prevent recovery from Covid? Lie, cheat, and steal?  Or, did the Ds disagree, debate, and fail? No relief?  Viral invasion? Job Growth?  Schools? Inflation? Gas prices?  Minimum wage increases? What issues or cares drove you vote... or not?  And, was that all about DC or about your town, city, county, or state? Two states are the focus here... Southern "purple" Virginia that voted for Biden last year by 10 points; and, New Jersey - a northern state that went Dem in 1992 and has been blue - mostly - but for a Governor McGreevy problem and resignation followed by Dem Corzine for one term and then two by Republican Chris Christie election.  Biden carried NJ by 16 points in 2020, and Obama carried NJ twice - notwithstanding a Republican sitting in the state Capitol. Trump also lost NJ to Hillary in 2016...

THE REPUBLICAN TAKE 

Talk about a "FANTASY WORLD!" The Republican "take" on 2020 election "history" (the BIG LIE CONTINUES) and the events that followed. That is reflected in their world view... and stated goals - erode women's rights... promote guns... display racism... prevent voting in working class neighborhoods... deny the Corona19 virus impact and ignore the 750,000 American deaths. They say that Climate Change is a "hoax" , and " THE EARTH IS FLAT TOO??? January 6th was simply a "tourist" visit to the Capitol? Meanwhile... the Q-Anon crowd assembled in Dallas... at the Grassy Knoll... anticipating the resurrection of John F. Kennedy Jr... announcing that Trump is the "Savior"... and joining with him as his VP Candidate! What a complete hallucination! Grab the THORAZINE AND A STRAIGHT JACKET! 

Q-Anon assembles at the Grassy Knoll in Dallas to witness the resurrection of JFK, Jr and the arrival of their "Savior"

                                                        

                                                   LETS TAKE A PEEK!

All nonsense... And, now with the Virginia loss and the narrow New Jersey win... McConnell's take on the future is a Democratic collapse and a return to McConnell control in 2022!  Then comes 2024 and  a push for the restoration of the insane world of T-world and autocratic rule. Talk about a "NIGHTMARE!" It's time to re-evaluate, re-engage, and regenerate a better future for our democracy.

THE ELECTION OUTCOME - VA AND NJ

OK.... so, Democrats lost some ground in Virginia, some votes in NJ, and votes elsewhere.  Were they votes against Dems?  For the Republican candidates? A rejection of Biden? A threat to the narrow Dem Majority in either or both Houses of Congress? Or, was all of this simply a fall-off of votes - for the most part disaffected or disappointed Democratic voters? And, a turnout of angry Republican voters who still believe the BIG LIE that the election was "stolen?" Did the Republicans do better in 2021 than in 2020?  Was that because Trump was not on the ballot this time? Or is the 2021 outcome a complete defeat for the Democrats and spell disaster come next year 2022... and the next Presidential in 2024? Well... there are several points of view in response to these questions...

The WWII Battle of the Bulge after D-Day did not result in another "Dunkirk." Instead, Eisenhower and the soon-to-be NATO allies called for reinforcements and a new surge of freedom.... The Allied push and counter-attack continued... and the Bulge "broke" with a German retreat that took the battlefront right into the Capitol in Berlin. Hitler's "empire" was defeated... dismantled... and destroyed....

It's time to learn the lessons of history... and renew the progress of freedom and democracy.... back to the battlements, march forward, continue to fight with new energy and commitment.... and beat back the beast! Election 2021 may be a "call to arms" and let it be so..... No "fantasy world" for the American Democracy. GET REAL! Time to re-evaluate… Do you really think that THIS is what the American voter likes?  Agrees with? Will vote for??? What is the REALITY of this and next year????

Mark Zuckerberg, Captain of the META ship, wants "virtual Reality"

And, what might that be?  I have had little experience in Virginia but considerable time, effort, and engagement in New Jersey's election cycles... for more than 30 years.  So, in the 2021 elections, what was the "virtual reality" in New Jersey?

The NJ race became a "close call" for Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. OK... the number of votes cast fell off as usual.  After all, in voting cycles the largest turnout of voters is typically the Presidential Election Year.... and not the election of a committeeman or a council member. The 2021 NJ race was a Democratic success - but an unusual pattern. Governor Murphy - narrowly - became the first Democrat to be re-elected Governor following a Presidential since Brendan Byrne was narrowly re-elected in 1977 - 44 years ago. Both Houses of the NJ Legislature lost a few seats to Republican candidates - but, a strong majority in both the Assembly and the Senate are being carried into the next session with all of the candidates on the ballot this past election. So, why do I say that this is an "unusual pattern?" 

A curious answer......

TRUMP NJ VOTES (2020): 1,880,000 votes

BIDEN NJ VOTES (2020):   2,610,000 votes  +16% +730,000 votes

                                       TTL: 4,490,000 votes cast

_____________________________________________________________________

Jack Ciattarelli (2021): 1,210,000 votes* (64% of Trump 2020)

Phil Murphy (2021):     1,250,000 votes* +3%: +40,000 (47% of Biden 2020)

                             TTL:  2,460,000 votes cast (2021)*

     *Indicates election night votes reported and not a complete count.

Notice the substantial drop-off of votes between the two years.  Between the D and R totals, a loss of some 2,000,000 in voter turnout. Ciattarelli collected 1.2 million votes compared to Trump's 1.9 million votes - missing 700,000 Trump votes. Murphy, on the other hand, still carried NJ - narrowly - with 1.25 million fewer votes than Biden the year before. In other words, Murphy lost more turnout votes than did Ciattarelli - 17% fewer in turnout - less than half the Biden votes scored! Were Dem voters disappointed and angry? Did the independent "swing" votes in NJ - about 1/3 of the voter registry - swing from Biden to Ciattarelli?  Were the NJ voters annoyed by DC Dems and their failure to actually act... without blaming the McConnell strategy of BLOCK AND BLAME?

New Jersey historically is viewed North and South... tracing all the way back to Colonial history. The Northern section has been divided politically into urban Democrats and rural Republican areas separated by Suburban Independents.  Strong regions in NJ follow the NJ Turnpike - Hudson and Essex Counties (the two strongest Dem counties) through Union, Middlesex, Mercer, Burlington, and Camden. Other counties lean Republican with Bergen County - largest in population among counties - and Passaic County are trending Democrat... but, often Republican. Taking into account the reduced turnout of voters in 2021 compared to 2020, the vote spread in legislative districts was typical.  For example, 3 Senate seats and 6 Assembly seats in Hudson County all carried the usual 75% of votes cast.  Same in Essex.... and most other places - Union, Middlesex, and Mercer. South of Mercer the trend changed - a bit in some places and a bunch in others further south.  In fact, Senate president Sweeny (D) the leading Southern Democrat re-elected over and over - LOST his race to a truck driver who spent under $5000 on the race! Sweeny spent $500,000. He lost his 2 Democratic Assembly Members as well! In fact, in the Southern wing of the Dem Party, we lost 4 Assembly seats and 2 Senate seats. Nevertheless, the Dems had substantial control of both houses by the numbers and maintain a comfortable control come January 2022. In the end, South Jersey looks as though it is seriously weakened.... after an era of growth and strength under George Norcross, an Insurance Millionaire located in Camden County - another NJ Turnpike Dem stronghold.

Meanwhile, the Beltway Dems in both House and Senate are roiled up - some in a panic for their own elections on the 2022 horizon.  After the Virginia "News" of a loss there, much blame - rightly or wrongly - was placed on the DC internal battles - House vs House and Dem vs Dem - in both places - and the inability of Biden to break the ice.  Mc Connell and Mc Carthy, meanwhile, stand on the sidelines planning for their return to power - and, if they do - to block anything and everything that the Dems propose - and in 2024 - BLAME THE DEMOCRATS FOR THEIR FAILURE TO GET THINGS DONE!  That has always been the Moscow Mitch BLOCK AND BLAME plan.  It worked to elect Trump in 2016... and he thinks that it will work again in 2024! 

And, so the Democrats... and the Republicans too ... leave the 2021 battlefields behind... regroup and plan for the next confrontation. The Dems have returned to their "cauldron" that continues to bubble and bubble... toiling into more and more trouble... Is that the way we can recover and save our nation and its democracy? You decide...

The Democrats and Biden leave the battlefields and return to the Capitol... still in hot debate and in continuous disagreement... while McConnell schemes in the cloakroom.... You decide.

Bobby J