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| THE RED REPUBLICAN CLOWN CAR CANDIDATES - 2022 |
SEND IN THE CLOWNS... SEND IN THE CLOWNS.... (Judy Collins, 1975)
The GREAT DEBATE currently underway across all the media outlets regarding the outcome of the November Election is that the race is tight. That either political party - Republican or Democrats - could score a win in either or both Houses of the Congress. Afterall, we are in the midst of a mid-term election... and mid-term elections have a history of the incumbent President's party loses seats in both. If that holds up statistically this season, the Republicans may gain control of either or both Houses! Should that occur, you can bet your bottom dollar that McConnell in the Senate and McCarthy in the House WILL BLOCK ANYTHING AND EVERYTHING proposed by President Biden and the Democrats. After all, that is what happened to President Obama - every proposal blocked, including the nomination of Merrick Garland to be appointed to a Supreme Court vacancy, as blocked by McConnell. Garland currently serves as US Attorney General.
So, the question is - will the current polling data showing a "tight race" across the nation indicate the likelihood that the Republicans will win one Congressional Chamber - House or Senate - or both? Will we "Send in the Clowns?" I think not, especially if moderate and liberal Democrats take the battle to the field of play and make the case that the far-right Republicans have attempted - and continue to attempt - to alter our democracy into a corporatist and theocratic autocracy! Something NOT TO DO! And, you may ask... why would we "take the field" and what is the basis of rejecting "clown car candidates?" The answer to these questions lies in the validity of data sources and the issues tested.
POLLING DATA
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| RELIABILITY OF CURRENT POLL DATA? |
Over the last 20 years, off-year elections have shown two important elements. The first is that the data shows and the election results reflect that the incumbent President's party loses seats in the House, the Senate, or both. The second - best displayed in the 2016 election polling - is that the numbers 90 days out and then the week before the vote were way off the mark. The Trump win came as a complete surprise, if not a total shock. The outcome did not reflect the polling data? Why was that? The answer lies in how valid the polling data base surveyed may have been. What is the source of the lists of voters called in the conduct of the poll undertaken? Is the data base "tilted" in one way or another and is the outcome predictable? Consider the following... the "data desert" displayed above... This time, off year in 2022...
POINT ONE: IS THE DATA BASE AN EQUAL AND RANDOM SELECTION OF THE SURVEY TARGETS? What has made polling efforts more and more difficult and less accurate in the past decade and more is the gradual transition from published telephone land lines to unpublished cell numbers. As the ability to make contact was diminished, is the poll accuracy impacted? Polling during the 2016 campaign was considerably off base - likely for these very reasons - a large number of registered folks with cell phones fell off the data base. This year - once again - there are those who question poll accuracy. In my opinion, here is a good example...
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| THE US SUPREME COURT - DOBBS V. WOMENS' HEALTH RIGHTS |
Since this past Summer and the US Supreme Court decision that reversed Roe v. Wade after 50 years that guaranteed women the right to make their own choices about their future (more on this later), a massive "rumble" began to take place in voter registration and activism. Since that decision, the very first "test" of that ruling took place in "Ruby Red" Kansas... Poll data at that point indicated that the Kansas electorate would likely vote in favor of banning abortions in the state.... Let's see...
The Republican State Legislature in Kansas placed a referendum on the ballot for August 5, 2022 - just last month! Their purpose was to confirm the Supreme Court decision that states could chart their own course on the women's "Right to Choose" and that the Kansas Legislature would make their choices for them - OUTLAW THE WOMAN'S RIGHT TO CHOOSE! If the referendum had been adopted in this deep "Red" state, the Supreme Court's decision to deny women their healthcare rights would be sustained as Kansas women would be denied their right to choose. To me - AN OUTRAGE!
The statewide referendum was held on August 5th - an unusual date that was selected by the anti-woman element in the Kansas Legislature - believing that the voter turnout would be reduced and that the referendum to deny women's rights would easily pass. HELLO!!! Women in Red Kansas STOOD UP, SPOKE OUT, AND MARCHED TO THE POLLS TO EXPRESS THEIR HEALTHCARE RIGHTS AND THEIR RIGHT TO VOTE. The Supreme Court, the Kansas Red Legislature, and those wanting to deny women their ability to choose - LOST. The vote for Women - and the right to choose - was upheld on a 60/40 vote! This was a 50% "Blue" difference in a "Red" state!!! This outcome simply did not match the poll data as reported!
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| SO MUCH FOR THE WICKED WITCH OF ANTI WOMAN |
One important reason for that outcome - beyond Women's Rights - was that women's anger that resulted from the Supreme Court reversing Roe v. Wade (1973) ignited a heavy registration and engagement "fuse." Right across the board - urban, suburban, and rural women headed for their county HQ to register and vote. Many of those already registered - Republican, Democrat, or Independent, were "STOKED" to vote in the referendum. The result was a dramatic increase in voter registrations - especially women, and in a voter turnout far exceeding the expected number of votes cast. The late poll data in Kansas reported that the margin could go either way... the "split" was thin. Well... it wasn't. The referendum vote went 60% for women's rights and 40% against. In this case, the poll data demonstrated a substantial error - a 50% error rate!
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| ANGER RESULTS IN ACTION AND VOTES |
As pointed out above, the polling DATA BASE was created, printed, and shared as close to the election as possible. That means months before... and well before the new voter registrations are recorded in broad data. And, who made up the "sea" of new registrations? PISSED OFF WOMEN! Others were young folks who had not registered but wanted to preserve their democracy and their rights to choose! Both of those data cohorts were not in the polling data bases used for polling. Add to that that phone landlines are rapidly evaporating and replaced by unregistered cell phones. Those cell numbers are not in a directory and, upon calls received from an unrecognized number ( a polling source) are less likely to be picked up or responded to. That means that newly registered and active pissed off women and younger voters cannot be reached or recorded.... but, they voted in Kansas and, in my view will vote come November - even as they avoid their inclusion in polling. Poll data was skewed due to the absence of angry women and young new registered voters with cell phones.
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| FIGHT BACK - AND SAVE OUR DEMOCRACY |
POINT TWO: What does all that mean?
Voters not in current polling data base materials will, in fact, vote but are not represented in the polling outcomes as reported. And, as evidenced by the Kansas example, are heavily weighted BLUE and against RED. Is this "all she wrote?" Nope! Other HOT ISSUES DRIVE VOTERS! Issues that make them stand up, speak out, and vote! Registration comes first... and that added to the flaws and MIAs in the polling data. Some of those issues - aside from Women's Choice which is the hottest of hot buttons - include the "Insurrection", sedition, and attempted Coup that took place on January 6th, 2021; Trumpian and Q-Anon lunacy; gun registry and restrictions - "do the right thing" with weapons of war. The passed gun legislation adopted reasonable rules for the possession of lethal guns, artillery, bombs, and more to prevent death and destruction currently at unheard of levels - far beyond other nations on the globe. Today - in the US - there are more guns in circulation than the entire population of this nation. Another negative that is growing is the Trumpian lies, fraud, tax evasion, record theft of TOP SECRET DOCUMENTS, and much more. Just ask Cheney.....
And, what did the Republicans in the Senate and House oppose - aside from a Woman's Right to Choose? A great leap forward in gun control. Not, making AKs illegal - the Republicans blocked that. But, other and tighter rules apply. The Republicans voted against the expansion of VA protections to address illnesses resulting from "burn pits" in war zones; an investment in overcoming climate change consequences regardless of floods and wild fires; investments in infrastructure, expansion of micro-chips at home in the US; economic expansion and deficit decrease through wealthy corporations paying their "fair share" of revenue - to invest in our future. The Republicans voted against and opposed an expansion of voting rights and a reduction in "gerrymandering." Their position has been - and continues to be - help the rich, short the poor, assist corporations with tax relief and eliminate rules and regulations, oppose control of Pharma pricing to increase profits and oppose any increase in the federal Minimum Wage - not raised in more than 20 years, deny Climate Change, oppose voting rights, and prevent the expansion of healthcare for Americans.
Take a look at the Republican Senate Campaign Plan authored by Senator Scott (R-FL). The Scott Republican Senate Platform Plan is to reduce Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, Veterans Benefits and more to a 5-year program that can be trimmed and/or eliminated every 5 years - not the permanent programs that all of us paid for over our entire working lives or during our military service. To me, this is an outrage... and to McConnell, this is a Scott program "bush" that he is hiding behind as he avoids the Scott Platform....
More on these other issues in the next pre-election day postings. These postings will equip you with the data and the positions that reflect the wants and needs of the American public. The "swing" in polling accuracy, massive new registrations, heavy off-year turnout, and anger in the districts has begun a process that may very well result in quite a different off-year federal election. If I am right, the Dems will pick up seats in both Houses - as the "secret" and newly registered and unpolled voters flood the polls come the November election. IT BEGAN WITH THE US SUPREME COURT'S REVERSAL OF ROE V. WADE AND THE TRASHING OF A WOMAN'S RIGHT TO CHOOSE.
Stay tuned..... Meanwhile:
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| STAND UP... SPEAK OUT... AND VOTE!!! |
