Since my last post we have witnessed a growing hostility between the Clinton camp and the Sanders campaign. I do understand that the frustration must be high for those who support Bernie, but the tone and tenor of the dialogue emanating from the Sanders' campaign has obviously intensified over the past several weeks. Just days ago, the Nevada Democratic Convention to select delegates for the National Convention and to adopt state rules for future delegate selection methods resulted in near violence, for the most part, emanating from the Sanders supporters. Press reports clearly laid the near-violence on the Sanders supporters who came as protesters and disruptors, not as debaters ready for a calm discussion. They shouted down Senator Barbara Boxer and disrupted the convention. No one has denied this description. If mob violence is a "future we can believe in", then I will take a pass.
As should have been done by all leaders in the party, this sort of behavior - and the threats that were made against the state chairperson in the aftermath - are more the actions of an angry mob and not the civil discourse of a political policy debate. The DNC chair, several Senators, and other observers decried this behavior and called upon all of the players to denounce violent, disruptive behavior as well as personal threats and intimidation which also took place after the Nevada convention. Bernie Sanders, sadly, did not. Although his comments generally were a rejection of violence, he defended his supporters and blamed their frustration on the Democratic Party "leaders" instead. In other words, he blamed the outbreak of violence and threats in Nevada on the victims of that disruption and violence. Hmmmm... blaming the victim.... heard that somewhere before..... I would have thought that Senator Sanders was better than that.... It seems more and more that Bernie's presence in the race - and the level of discourse that his campaign is encouraging - is creating real damage to the nominee of the party - Hillary Clinton. Bernie's heated negative attacks against the party, the process, and the candidate are doing nothing more than handing the Trump camp fodder for the fall. Makes one wonder just what the objective of the Sanders campaign truly is. Democratic Party process reform is one thing - but, blowing the election cycle - the equivalent of taking your ball and going home - is just not acceptable.
Recall that the Democratic Party could have prevented Bernie - an independent until this election cycle - from running inside the party primary process. That would have cast Sanders in the role of previous independent candidates with Democratic Party leanings like Ralph Nader. Instead, the Party took a risk and welcomed him into the Party and the process. Notably, the process then and now was the same and well-known to all parties. Bernie has complained that he is losing because of "closed" primaries" - elections that only permit registered Democrats to vote in the selection of the candidate. Hmmmmm. Who should we let vote to determine the candidate of the Democratic Party? Republicans? Independents? Or, should Democrats select the Democratic candidate? Perhaps Bernie the Independent "Democratic Socialist" wanted this one to be a two-fer - get registered Democratic votes AND Independent votes knowing the fate of Ralph Nader and others who ran as Independent-only candidates. Of course, there is no national party called the "Democratic Socialist Party" but there is the "Socialist Party" and a number of others to choose from. However, these do not offer either the platform, media attention, or the numbers of voters available to advance a candidacy to the finish line. Does the Republican Party permit registered Libertarians vote in their primaries? Of course not. Do they let the America First Party or the Prohibition Party standard bearers onto their Presidential Debate stage so they can appeal to registered Republican voters? Come on.....
So, Bernie gets to run as a Democrat - which he had prior to this cycle, he had steadfastly contended that he was not. And, he does surprisingly well against the presumed candidate in-the-wings, Hillary Clinton. Baggage, yes. But, with a wealth of experience - as First Lady, as US Senator from New York, and as Secretary of State, no modern candidate has been better prepared for the office of the Presidency. Her knowledge and experience, her battle-tested and well-scarred toughness in the face of adversity is unmatched. As I write this, we all know that Hillary will become the nominee - with a majority of the raw votes case, a majority of the won Pledged Delegates, and a majority of the Super Delegates (unless Bernie takes California by 50+ points over Clinton). The Sanders' campaign continues to pretend that they can still win the nomination..... and pretend that their increasingly intense attacks on Hillary actually help the Party. His position is that he "will do everything that I can to defeat Donald Trump this fall." Now, what does that mean? Does he, along with Elizabeth Warren, campaign night and day to make sure that Bernie's supporters remain engaged and vote for Hillary come fall? Or, could it mean that Bernie leads his "political revolution" on a quixotic journey into an independent campaign effort... say, as "Democratic Socialists" and, in combination with the Socialist Party, try to establish a new political construct in the array of national political parties? Could it be that the Sanders' plan is to split the Democratic vote so that Trump wins while cloaking himself in "doing everything that I can...." as an independent candidate? Is it possible that, after 4 years of s disastrous Trump Presidency, he plans to emerge as the "savior" candidate to take on Trump in 2020? OK... so, I may be crossing over into the political twilight zone.... but, all of these are at least possible....
More likely, Bernie loses to Hillary, Hillary becomes the nominee, Bernie endorses Hillary and Hillary gets booed by Bernie Delegates, and Bernie appears on Hillary's behalf several times in the fall and in some TV ads and maybe mail to his donors and identified voters in negative-Trump messaging. But, after the Bernie-inflicted damage of these last several weeks, the narrowing Hillary lead over Trump in the polls, and a continuing Bernie attack on Hillary and the Party for next month or so before the Convention, will that be enough? And, isn't that the real question? Stay tuned.
Wednesday, May 18, 2016
Friday, May 6, 2016
TRUMPOLOGY 101
So, here we are.... post Bush and Rubio... post Cruz and Kasich... And, the last man standing is DONALD TRUMP! This had all been foretold months earlier by the obviously insightful and most prophetic political observer and prognosticator in America. You guessed it.... DONALD TRUMP.
From the start of this election exercise, Donald trump was essentially dismissed as a "buffoon", a "clown", not a serious candidate, only trying to get some exposure for a new TV venture or, playing at "reality TV". Add an entire host of negative adjectives essentially portraying Trump as an "also-ran" type who wouldn't last three months. After all, he was running in a field populated by experienced elected officials - governors, senators, and others with either the experience or the apparent disposition to become Commander-in-Chief. Trump, on the other hand, with his uneven presentations, and ill-informed opinions, seemed not equipped to assume the mantle of national, if not global, leadership. It seemed as though - no one - not the other candidates, the media, political analysts, national consultants, and others well experienced in presidential electoral combat - not one person believed that Trump was a serious contender. The consensus was that, regardless of whatever ridiculous reason that Donald Trump had for entering the race, he would fall out early in the contest. There was only one person who dismissed all of the nay-sayers - Donald Trump himself.
As the Republican field was winnowed down from 17 to 15 to 12 to 5 and then to the final three, somehow, Donald Trump was never among the missing in action. He would soldier on - sometimes in a painfully clumsy way, tweeting his way to the lead in state after state. Trump saw something that others did not see at all. And, he pursued it so fiercely that others were blinded by the flash of combat and the fog of war. Most thought that he was just "crazy" by leaving some deeply held conservative policy positions, long the mainstay of the Republican Party orthodoxy and national platform. Abortion bans with no exception, de-funding Planned Parenthood, eliminating health care plans for all Americans, and free trade policy like NAFTA and the elimination of trade barriers, just to name a few. Trump's failure to sign on to these issues and others convinced the Republicans that he could not really, really be serious about winning the Republican nomination for President, especially with a strong conservative like Ted Cruz in the race, and against the Capitol Hill budget hero and current Governor John Kasich. His antics really must be a joke, they thought. He was getting a bunch of attention, though. But, we chalked it all up to his "celebrity" status and the unusual nature of his behavior that attracted "oddballs and crazies" as well as his completely unorthodox campaign. But, the Donald had other plans.
While the other candidates focused their efforts on the traditional Republican base, Trump went after the disaffected, angry, disappointed, fearful, and left behind voters who had not participated in the process for years. In the days of Nixon, these folks were referred to as "the silent majority." Trump correctly identified this cohort of the potential electorate and aimed dead center. He believed that tapping into their anger at the Washington "establishment" and "politics as usual" (translation - lying to voters every election and doing nothing) and the "corruption" of the process through large campaign contributions (bribes, according to Trump) to purchase influence that was against the interests of working class and middle class families. Trump refused contributions and so far is self-funded. No bribes or donations that might make him beholding to some lobbyist or corporate leader.
Better yet, whatever you need, he will deliver. Re-open coal mines - well, of course. Get rid of the EPA - sure... done. Lower taxes on you and raise them on others - hey, that's the plan, right? And, just this week, (heaven forbid!) he expressed willingness to raise taxes on the wealthy! No wonder that Ted Cruz described Trump as an identical reflection of Hillary Clinton. After all, they are both from New York... and they must share New York "values", right? The point is, Donald Trump had his eye squarely on the ball. It was just a different ball than Lyin' Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Little Marco, and low-energy Jeb had on their agenda. So, while the rest of the field was dividing up the "conservative" standard Republican Presidential primary voters, the Trump campaign was romancing a different group of voters, appealing to their frustration and anger at the system (and its occupants - like governors, senators, and other Beltway regulars), energizing them with his antics, tweets, unique persona, and his marketing skills. His goal - to create an entire new constituency - a Trump constituency of new voters in the Republican primary, not steeped in the conservative orthodoxy but driven by economic arguments that would motivate those left behind in the current sluggish economy. This would be the basis of the Trump"cult of personality" that would sustain him throughout the primary season. He would blame immigrants, Muslims, and minorities for the failure of the economic recovery to lift up all boats. And, his solutions - building a wall, keeping Muslims out, rounding up and exporting illegal residents, abolishing Obamacare, tearing up free trade deals and imposing tariffs on imports, and re-negotiating NATO and other alliances sounds more like the nativists of the late 19th century and the isolationists of the mid-20th century before America took on a global leadership role after WW II and continues to occupy on the world stage. Is this who we have become? Build a tall wall around the castle, throw out problem children, raise the drawbridge, and man the barricades? This is the American dream? A closed off and garrisoned nation bristling with nuclear weapons, daring the world to ... just try it! Really?
Donald Trump added thousands if not millions of "new" Republican primary voters to the equation. While the others were dividing up the old-school pizza, Trump was having an entirely new meal delivered - the new Trump voter. Fluid, vague, and malleable, the Trump campaign calculated that he could appeal to many outside the traditional Tea-Party, or right-wing conservative voters who had dominated the Republican party for decades. The strategy worked and Donald Trump re-shaped the Republican Party in his own image, nearly free of the confining policy positions of the past. Once the nominee, look for the post-convention Trump to adopt more mainstream positions so compete for Main Street votes. With conservative leaders, media outlets, and elected officials complaining on the right, and attacks on the left from progressives against the excesses of a billionaire, criticism from women who he has regularly maligned along the way, or from Latinos objecting to being scapegoated as murderers, drug dealers, and rapists, or from Black voters already feeling the distance and dismissive attitude of a racist candidate with little claim to support for civil rights, voting rights, employment opportunity, or educational assistance for minorities, Trump has quite the challenge ahead. But, Trumpology holds that he will "make America Great Again" by sheer force of will, a dash of confused policy, slowly simmered with the anger of the working class white voter, especially the white male voter, with a big dose of Hillary poison, negative ads, and the most ugly attacks ever presented in a presidential campaign. The question for the fall is - can he do it again. Trumpology says, but, of course. What do you say?
From the start of this election exercise, Donald trump was essentially dismissed as a "buffoon", a "clown", not a serious candidate, only trying to get some exposure for a new TV venture or, playing at "reality TV". Add an entire host of negative adjectives essentially portraying Trump as an "also-ran" type who wouldn't last three months. After all, he was running in a field populated by experienced elected officials - governors, senators, and others with either the experience or the apparent disposition to become Commander-in-Chief. Trump, on the other hand, with his uneven presentations, and ill-informed opinions, seemed not equipped to assume the mantle of national, if not global, leadership. It seemed as though - no one - not the other candidates, the media, political analysts, national consultants, and others well experienced in presidential electoral combat - not one person believed that Trump was a serious contender. The consensus was that, regardless of whatever ridiculous reason that Donald Trump had for entering the race, he would fall out early in the contest. There was only one person who dismissed all of the nay-sayers - Donald Trump himself.
As the Republican field was winnowed down from 17 to 15 to 12 to 5 and then to the final three, somehow, Donald Trump was never among the missing in action. He would soldier on - sometimes in a painfully clumsy way, tweeting his way to the lead in state after state. Trump saw something that others did not see at all. And, he pursued it so fiercely that others were blinded by the flash of combat and the fog of war. Most thought that he was just "crazy" by leaving some deeply held conservative policy positions, long the mainstay of the Republican Party orthodoxy and national platform. Abortion bans with no exception, de-funding Planned Parenthood, eliminating health care plans for all Americans, and free trade policy like NAFTA and the elimination of trade barriers, just to name a few. Trump's failure to sign on to these issues and others convinced the Republicans that he could not really, really be serious about winning the Republican nomination for President, especially with a strong conservative like Ted Cruz in the race, and against the Capitol Hill budget hero and current Governor John Kasich. His antics really must be a joke, they thought. He was getting a bunch of attention, though. But, we chalked it all up to his "celebrity" status and the unusual nature of his behavior that attracted "oddballs and crazies" as well as his completely unorthodox campaign. But, the Donald had other plans.
While the other candidates focused their efforts on the traditional Republican base, Trump went after the disaffected, angry, disappointed, fearful, and left behind voters who had not participated in the process for years. In the days of Nixon, these folks were referred to as "the silent majority." Trump correctly identified this cohort of the potential electorate and aimed dead center. He believed that tapping into their anger at the Washington "establishment" and "politics as usual" (translation - lying to voters every election and doing nothing) and the "corruption" of the process through large campaign contributions (bribes, according to Trump) to purchase influence that was against the interests of working class and middle class families. Trump refused contributions and so far is self-funded. No bribes or donations that might make him beholding to some lobbyist or corporate leader.
Better yet, whatever you need, he will deliver. Re-open coal mines - well, of course. Get rid of the EPA - sure... done. Lower taxes on you and raise them on others - hey, that's the plan, right? And, just this week, (heaven forbid!) he expressed willingness to raise taxes on the wealthy! No wonder that Ted Cruz described Trump as an identical reflection of Hillary Clinton. After all, they are both from New York... and they must share New York "values", right? The point is, Donald Trump had his eye squarely on the ball. It was just a different ball than Lyin' Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Little Marco, and low-energy Jeb had on their agenda. So, while the rest of the field was dividing up the "conservative" standard Republican Presidential primary voters, the Trump campaign was romancing a different group of voters, appealing to their frustration and anger at the system (and its occupants - like governors, senators, and other Beltway regulars), energizing them with his antics, tweets, unique persona, and his marketing skills. His goal - to create an entire new constituency - a Trump constituency of new voters in the Republican primary, not steeped in the conservative orthodoxy but driven by economic arguments that would motivate those left behind in the current sluggish economy. This would be the basis of the Trump"cult of personality" that would sustain him throughout the primary season. He would blame immigrants, Muslims, and minorities for the failure of the economic recovery to lift up all boats. And, his solutions - building a wall, keeping Muslims out, rounding up and exporting illegal residents, abolishing Obamacare, tearing up free trade deals and imposing tariffs on imports, and re-negotiating NATO and other alliances sounds more like the nativists of the late 19th century and the isolationists of the mid-20th century before America took on a global leadership role after WW II and continues to occupy on the world stage. Is this who we have become? Build a tall wall around the castle, throw out problem children, raise the drawbridge, and man the barricades? This is the American dream? A closed off and garrisoned nation bristling with nuclear weapons, daring the world to ... just try it! Really?
Donald Trump added thousands if not millions of "new" Republican primary voters to the equation. While the others were dividing up the old-school pizza, Trump was having an entirely new meal delivered - the new Trump voter. Fluid, vague, and malleable, the Trump campaign calculated that he could appeal to many outside the traditional Tea-Party, or right-wing conservative voters who had dominated the Republican party for decades. The strategy worked and Donald Trump re-shaped the Republican Party in his own image, nearly free of the confining policy positions of the past. Once the nominee, look for the post-convention Trump to adopt more mainstream positions so compete for Main Street votes. With conservative leaders, media outlets, and elected officials complaining on the right, and attacks on the left from progressives against the excesses of a billionaire, criticism from women who he has regularly maligned along the way, or from Latinos objecting to being scapegoated as murderers, drug dealers, and rapists, or from Black voters already feeling the distance and dismissive attitude of a racist candidate with little claim to support for civil rights, voting rights, employment opportunity, or educational assistance for minorities, Trump has quite the challenge ahead. But, Trumpology holds that he will "make America Great Again" by sheer force of will, a dash of confused policy, slowly simmered with the anger of the working class white voter, especially the white male voter, with a big dose of Hillary poison, negative ads, and the most ugly attacks ever presented in a presidential campaign. The question for the fall is - can he do it again. Trumpology says, but, of course. What do you say?
Monday, May 2, 2016
ON THE ROAD WITH HILLARY.....
As this campaign season has moved forward toward the party conventions, it has become increasingly clear that Hillary will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. State after state, contest after contest, the Clinton raw vote totals have steadily increased. Hillary's majority in the raw vote now is at around 3,000,000 more votes than Sanders. And, this same lop-sided margin is reflected in the delegate votes that the two currently claim - Clinton 2165; Sanders 1357. The Sanders campaign has complained for months that the "Super Delegates", a collection of party leaders, elected officials and others elected at state conventions or caucuses, have inappropriately tilted the delegate totals heavily in favor of Hillary. Bernie is correct that the Super Delegates favor Hillary by a wide margin - 520 to Sanders 39 - and that is a part of the delegate math. But, Bernie is wrong when he takes the position that if the "Super Delegates" were set aside and the "Pledged Delegates" (those that were won in caucuses and primaries in the various states) were counted, he would be the nominee. Subtract the "Supers" from the totals above and the current result is: Clinton 1645; Sanders 1318, a 327 delegate lead for Clinton. Only 1243 delegates remain in future contests, including New Jersey and California.
New Jersey is a "proportional" delegate state with 126 delegates in total - 72 elected in 20 paired legislative districts, 24 at-large delegates "elected" at a meeting of the NJ State Democratic Committee one week after the NJ Primary election on June 7th, and the balance being "Super Delegates", pledged or not. The big prize yet to be determined is California. With a total of 548 delegate votes to be determined - 475 elected in congressional districts and 73 "Super Delegates", Sanders is relying on some pretty optimistic projections in thinking that Hillary will not gain enough delegates to secure the nomination before the Convention meets in Philadelphia. The current average of 8 polling organizations has Hillary ahead of Sanders by 8 points. The Sanders strategy is to target selected congressional districts to secure a substantial amount of delegates. Still, making up nearly 330 votes in a political environment with Hillary ahead in polling and the largest delegates states having proportional plans in place, seems unlikely. Add to that problem that Hillary has a substantial and disproportionate edge in pledged "Super Delegates (520-39), and she currently has a total of 2165 delegates. 2383 delegates are necessary to secure a majority of all delegates and the Presidential nomination. Absent lightening striking, that means that Hillary just needs 218 additional delegates in the contests ahead. With 1243 still available between now and June 7th - the last Primary Election day in the Democratic calendar, Sanders could win a very unlikely 80% of the remaining delegates, and Hillary would still win 249 - and the nomination. This nomination is OUT OF REACH for the Sanders' campaign.
So, why does Bernie continue? He has the financial resources. He has an agenda of a number of progressive policy issues and objectives to advance. He and his supporters can (and will) impact the Democratic party Platform through the Platform Committee. And, he may seek a substantial change in party nomination rules for future presidential contests - especially in the role of the "Super Delegates" that has so haunted the Sanders' campaign since the start of the election season. However, this primary selection process is effectively over.
The 2016 contest will be Clinton vs. Trump.
New Jersey is a "proportional" delegate state with 126 delegates in total - 72 elected in 20 paired legislative districts, 24 at-large delegates "elected" at a meeting of the NJ State Democratic Committee one week after the NJ Primary election on June 7th, and the balance being "Super Delegates", pledged or not. The big prize yet to be determined is California. With a total of 548 delegate votes to be determined - 475 elected in congressional districts and 73 "Super Delegates", Sanders is relying on some pretty optimistic projections in thinking that Hillary will not gain enough delegates to secure the nomination before the Convention meets in Philadelphia. The current average of 8 polling organizations has Hillary ahead of Sanders by 8 points. The Sanders strategy is to target selected congressional districts to secure a substantial amount of delegates. Still, making up nearly 330 votes in a political environment with Hillary ahead in polling and the largest delegates states having proportional plans in place, seems unlikely. Add to that problem that Hillary has a substantial and disproportionate edge in pledged "Super Delegates (520-39), and she currently has a total of 2165 delegates. 2383 delegates are necessary to secure a majority of all delegates and the Presidential nomination. Absent lightening striking, that means that Hillary just needs 218 additional delegates in the contests ahead. With 1243 still available between now and June 7th - the last Primary Election day in the Democratic calendar, Sanders could win a very unlikely 80% of the remaining delegates, and Hillary would still win 249 - and the nomination. This nomination is OUT OF REACH for the Sanders' campaign.
So, why does Bernie continue? He has the financial resources. He has an agenda of a number of progressive policy issues and objectives to advance. He and his supporters can (and will) impact the Democratic party Platform through the Platform Committee. And, he may seek a substantial change in party nomination rules for future presidential contests - especially in the role of the "Super Delegates" that has so haunted the Sanders' campaign since the start of the election season. However, this primary selection process is effectively over.
The 2016 contest will be Clinton vs. Trump.
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