As this campaign season has moved forward toward the party conventions, it has become increasingly clear that Hillary will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. State after state, contest after contest, the Clinton raw vote totals have steadily increased. Hillary's majority in the raw vote now is at around 3,000,000 more votes than Sanders. And, this same lop-sided margin is reflected in the delegate votes that the two currently claim - Clinton 2165; Sanders 1357. The Sanders campaign has complained for months that the "Super Delegates", a collection of party leaders, elected officials and others elected at state conventions or caucuses, have inappropriately tilted the delegate totals heavily in favor of Hillary. Bernie is correct that the Super Delegates favor Hillary by a wide margin - 520 to Sanders 39 - and that is a part of the delegate math. But, Bernie is wrong when he takes the position that if the "Super Delegates" were set aside and the "Pledged Delegates" (those that were won in caucuses and primaries in the various states) were counted, he would be the nominee. Subtract the "Supers" from the totals above and the current result is: Clinton 1645; Sanders 1318, a 327 delegate lead for Clinton. Only 1243 delegates remain in future contests, including New Jersey and California.
New Jersey is a "proportional" delegate state with 126 delegates in total - 72 elected in 20 paired legislative districts, 24 at-large delegates "elected" at a meeting of the NJ State Democratic Committee one week after the NJ Primary election on June 7th, and the balance being "Super Delegates", pledged or not. The big prize yet to be determined is California. With a total of 548 delegate votes to be determined - 475 elected in congressional districts and 73 "Super Delegates", Sanders is relying on some pretty optimistic projections in thinking that Hillary will not gain enough delegates to secure the nomination before the Convention meets in Philadelphia. The current average of 8 polling organizations has Hillary ahead of Sanders by 8 points. The Sanders strategy is to target selected congressional districts to secure a substantial amount of delegates. Still, making up nearly 330 votes in a political environment with Hillary ahead in polling and the largest delegates states having proportional plans in place, seems unlikely. Add to that problem that Hillary has a substantial and disproportionate edge in pledged "Super Delegates (520-39), and she currently has a total of 2165 delegates. 2383 delegates are necessary to secure a majority of all delegates and the Presidential nomination. Absent lightening striking, that means that Hillary just needs 218 additional delegates in the contests ahead. With 1243 still available between now and June 7th - the last Primary Election day in the Democratic calendar, Sanders could win a very unlikely 80% of the remaining delegates, and Hillary would still win 249 - and the nomination. This nomination is OUT OF REACH for the Sanders' campaign.
So, why does Bernie continue? He has the financial resources. He has an agenda of a number of progressive policy issues and objectives to advance. He and his supporters can (and will) impact the Democratic party Platform through the Platform Committee. And, he may seek a substantial change in party nomination rules for future presidential contests - especially in the role of the "Super Delegates" that has so haunted the Sanders' campaign since the start of the election season. However, this primary selection process is effectively over.
The 2016 contest will be Clinton vs. Trump.
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