So, here we are.... post Bush and Rubio... post Cruz and Kasich... And, the last man standing is DONALD TRUMP! This had all been foretold months earlier by the obviously insightful and most prophetic political observer and prognosticator in America. You guessed it.... DONALD TRUMP.
From the start of this election exercise, Donald trump was essentially dismissed as a "buffoon", a "clown", not a serious candidate, only trying to get some exposure for a new TV venture or, playing at "reality TV". Add an entire host of negative adjectives essentially portraying Trump as an "also-ran" type who wouldn't last three months. After all, he was running in a field populated by experienced elected officials - governors, senators, and others with either the experience or the apparent disposition to become Commander-in-Chief. Trump, on the other hand, with his uneven presentations, and ill-informed opinions, seemed not equipped to assume the mantle of national, if not global, leadership. It seemed as though - no one - not the other candidates, the media, political analysts, national consultants, and others well experienced in presidential electoral combat - not one person believed that Trump was a serious contender. The consensus was that, regardless of whatever ridiculous reason that Donald Trump had for entering the race, he would fall out early in the contest. There was only one person who dismissed all of the nay-sayers - Donald Trump himself.
As the Republican field was winnowed down from 17 to 15 to 12 to 5 and then to the final three, somehow, Donald Trump was never among the missing in action. He would soldier on - sometimes in a painfully clumsy way, tweeting his way to the lead in state after state. Trump saw something that others did not see at all. And, he pursued it so fiercely that others were blinded by the flash of combat and the fog of war. Most thought that he was just "crazy" by leaving some deeply held conservative policy positions, long the mainstay of the Republican Party orthodoxy and national platform. Abortion bans with no exception, de-funding Planned Parenthood, eliminating health care plans for all Americans, and free trade policy like NAFTA and the elimination of trade barriers, just to name a few. Trump's failure to sign on to these issues and others convinced the Republicans that he could not really, really be serious about winning the Republican nomination for President, especially with a strong conservative like Ted Cruz in the race, and against the Capitol Hill budget hero and current Governor John Kasich. His antics really must be a joke, they thought. He was getting a bunch of attention, though. But, we chalked it all up to his "celebrity" status and the unusual nature of his behavior that attracted "oddballs and crazies" as well as his completely unorthodox campaign. But, the Donald had other plans.
While the other candidates focused their efforts on the traditional Republican base, Trump went after the disaffected, angry, disappointed, fearful, and left behind voters who had not participated in the process for years. In the days of Nixon, these folks were referred to as "the silent majority." Trump correctly identified this cohort of the potential electorate and aimed dead center. He believed that tapping into their anger at the Washington "establishment" and "politics as usual" (translation - lying to voters every election and doing nothing) and the "corruption" of the process through large campaign contributions (bribes, according to Trump) to purchase influence that was against the interests of working class and middle class families. Trump refused contributions and so far is self-funded. No bribes or donations that might make him beholding to some lobbyist or corporate leader.
Better yet, whatever you need, he will deliver. Re-open coal mines - well, of course. Get rid of the EPA - sure... done. Lower taxes on you and raise them on others - hey, that's the plan, right? And, just this week, (heaven forbid!) he expressed willingness to raise taxes on the wealthy! No wonder that Ted Cruz described Trump as an identical reflection of Hillary Clinton. After all, they are both from New York... and they must share New York "values", right? The point is, Donald Trump had his eye squarely on the ball. It was just a different ball than Lyin' Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Little Marco, and low-energy Jeb had on their agenda. So, while the rest of the field was dividing up the "conservative" standard Republican Presidential primary voters, the Trump campaign was romancing a different group of voters, appealing to their frustration and anger at the system (and its occupants - like governors, senators, and other Beltway regulars), energizing them with his antics, tweets, unique persona, and his marketing skills. His goal - to create an entire new constituency - a Trump constituency of new voters in the Republican primary, not steeped in the conservative orthodoxy but driven by economic arguments that would motivate those left behind in the current sluggish economy. This would be the basis of the Trump"cult of personality" that would sustain him throughout the primary season. He would blame immigrants, Muslims, and minorities for the failure of the economic recovery to lift up all boats. And, his solutions - building a wall, keeping Muslims out, rounding up and exporting illegal residents, abolishing Obamacare, tearing up free trade deals and imposing tariffs on imports, and re-negotiating NATO and other alliances sounds more like the nativists of the late 19th century and the isolationists of the mid-20th century before America took on a global leadership role after WW II and continues to occupy on the world stage. Is this who we have become? Build a tall wall around the castle, throw out problem children, raise the drawbridge, and man the barricades? This is the American dream? A closed off and garrisoned nation bristling with nuclear weapons, daring the world to ... just try it! Really?
Donald Trump added thousands if not millions of "new" Republican primary voters to the equation. While the others were dividing up the old-school pizza, Trump was having an entirely new meal delivered - the new Trump voter. Fluid, vague, and malleable, the Trump campaign calculated that he could appeal to many outside the traditional Tea-Party, or right-wing conservative voters who had dominated the Republican party for decades. The strategy worked and Donald Trump re-shaped the Republican Party in his own image, nearly free of the confining policy positions of the past. Once the nominee, look for the post-convention Trump to adopt more mainstream positions so compete for Main Street votes. With conservative leaders, media outlets, and elected officials complaining on the right, and attacks on the left from progressives against the excesses of a billionaire, criticism from women who he has regularly maligned along the way, or from Latinos objecting to being scapegoated as murderers, drug dealers, and rapists, or from Black voters already feeling the distance and dismissive attitude of a racist candidate with little claim to support for civil rights, voting rights, employment opportunity, or educational assistance for minorities, Trump has quite the challenge ahead. But, Trumpology holds that he will "make America Great Again" by sheer force of will, a dash of confused policy, slowly simmered with the anger of the working class white voter, especially the white male voter, with a big dose of Hillary poison, negative ads, and the most ugly attacks ever presented in a presidential campaign. The question for the fall is - can he do it again. Trumpology says, but, of course. What do you say?
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