Wednesday, April 27, 2016

IT'S A TRUMP WORLD AFTER ALL.......

Whew!  Donald trump took a giant step forward... and, without saying "may I", in his drive to the Republican nomination for the presidency.  Yesterday's elections in 5 states produced a clean sweep - and by very wide margins - for this upstart billionaire from New York.  He swept all 5 primaries with big double-digit wins in each state.  Even more impressive, Trump carried the majority of Republican primary votes cast ranging from 54% to 64%.  Kasich ran second to Trump in 4 of 5 states with the sole exception being Pennsylvania where ted Cruz scored second place.  However, even if the "Never Trump" votes were added together, Trump still thrashed both opposing candidates.

Candidate Trump scored big in delegates as well. Of the 119 pledged delegates in those 5 states, Trump's crushing victory carried with it 109 delegates while Cruz and Kasich scored 5 delegates each.  Even more impressive, the long-discussed 54 "un-bound" Pennsylvania delegates have indicated to various media outlets that 39 either support Trump or will vote for Trump on the first ballot, reflecting their congressional district preferences as expressed in the votes cast. Just 2 delegates are for Cruz, none expressed support for Kasich, 7 others remain uncommitted, and the remaining 6 made no comment.  Adding those 39 un-bound PA delegates to Trump's 109 count brings his total for yesterday to 148 with just 12 either committed or expressing a preference for others.  By any measure, that is a delegate landslide of biblical proportions!  Counting the 39 un-bound Pennsylvania delegates and those he won outright yesterday, that brings Trump's total delegate count to 993 with Cruz second at 564 and Kasich a distant third at 153.  Of note is the fact that Trump also added a significant raw vote advantage to his totals - further muting the argument that someone other that the front-runner be selected as the party's nominee.  Perhaps time has run out for his opponents and just maybe the "Never Trump" movement is, to quote Edgar Allen Poe, "Nevermore." Time will tell... but, from my perch, it really doesn't look good for the Trump opponents no matter how many Carlys re-appear in support of Cruz or Rubios appear to lend a hand as well..... 

PS:  Current poll data also shows that Trump is leading the race at the next "stop sign" selected by the anti-Trump forces - Indiana.  The latest poll data has Trump 15 points in front of Cruz with Kasich a distant third. Trump is humming "New York, New York"... "if I can make it there, I can make it anywhere." The NY primary does seem to have been a major turning point in the march of the state primaries.  Stay tuned......   
  

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

"...NEW YORK, NEW YORK.. if I can make it there, I'll make it anywhere.... it's up to you - New York, New York...."

Ok, so Frank Sinatra was singing about New York as a place that could test the mettle of a person and challenge them in many ways.  But, if they could make it there.... and, you know the rest.  It seems that last week, both the Donald and Hillary "made it" quite well in New York.  Crushing their opponents in the New York primary election, both Trump and Clinton scored major delegate victories in their respective elections.  Let's take a quick look.

Donald Trump, born and raised in New York (Queens), is a well-known entity in the NY public arena.  Often a focus of the tabloid and the mainstream press for decades, not to mention a TV star with his own shop - "The Apprentice," the Donald has had more than his share of ink and media coverage - some positive, some negative.  As a pundit once said, it doesn't matter whether what they say is good or bad, as long as they are talking about you.  It seems that this observation was well proven out during the current Republican election cycle.  Hardly given any chance at all last summer when the campaign slowly began to take shape with some 17 candidates, Trump was the butt of cartoons and late-night talk-show jokes for weeks as most observers thought that his "candidacy" was nothing more than a public relations stunt designed to life Trump's public persona.  Actually running for President?  Nah!  More likely a new TV series was in the planning stages and that this "candidacy" was a way to garner attention for act three of the Trump saga, having nothing to do with political office.  At least, that is what most pundits believed back then. It was just so much fun to pretend that Trump was a serious candidate so much of talk TV had a great time exploring "Trump for President" tongue in cheek. Fast forward to today, and more and more it appears as though Trump has the Republican establishment on the ropes.  Even if Trump does not gather the requisite number of delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot (1237), he will certainly enter the convention with far more delegates than any of his opponents.  Right now, based on the primaries to come and current available poll data, it appears that Donald Trump will have near enough delegate votes and far more than any of the remaining two opposing candidates, Cruz and Kasich.  Both the Cruz and the Kasich argument is, if Trump comes close but not over the line, then the delegates should select someone who Trump regularly beat in most states across the nation and gathered far fewer popular votes than the Donald.  Or, maybe the delegates would select someone who didn't run in the primaries at all - say, Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney. Hey, how about the Chair of the Benghazi Committee - "Howdy" Dowdy?  What does that scenario say to the largest block of committed supporters at the Convention - the Trump Delegates? I think that Donald is correct in his observation....  that, if the "rigged process" results in the abandonment of the Trump battle group, there will be "riots" in Cleveland.... and an exodus that will sink the Cruz Battleship and the Kasich Destroyer with it. 

As a matter of fact, Cruz and Kasich have just now determined that they will "collude" (Trump's term for their joint plan) in a last ditch plan to prevent Trump from gaining the nomination BEFORE the convention.  The deal - announced by Cruz who, evidently couldn't contain his excitement, used a press conference to proclaim the "deal" (did they both read Trump's book, "The Art of the Deal?"), reached by the two.  Kasich abandons Indiana and Cruz stays out of New Mexico and Oregon. Cruz, excited at the prospect of taking on the Donald one-on-one, made it sound as though Kasich "abandoned" his Indiana delegates and supporters.  Of course, Cruz is expecting that the Kasich supporters - delegate candidates and voters - will now vote for him.  With the latest Indiana polls indicating that Trump is again double-digits ahead of both Cruz and Kasich, Cruz would need the Kasich voters to outlast Trump and score a victory here.  Therefore, it must have been quite shocking for Cruz to discover that the first handful of Kasich Indiana supporters told local media outlets that they were suspicious of the "deal", felt "stranded" by Kasich and manipulated by Cruz. Asked who they would vote for as a second choice, they firmly said TRUMP, not Cruz.  If this is indicative of a pattern among Kasich voters, then the conspirator's plot to add to the Cruz vote totals will fail and they will have, instead, boosted Trump to near or over the 50% mark!  Should that occur in Indiana, Trump will be on his way to the nomination. This plot could turn out to be a self-inflicted and fatal wound to the Trump opponents.... they could be blowing themselves right out of the water if their respective supporters and voters, instead of turning to another non-Trump candidate, cast their votes and their lot with Trump.  Ask yourself this - do you really think that the typical Kasich supporter is excited to vote for "Lyin' Ted Cruz?"

"There is no place like home," said Hillary in her victory speech on New York's election night as she scored a double-digit victory over Bernie Sanders. Of course, it was the place of Bernie Sander's birth but Hillary and Bill made the choice to make it their home after leaving the White House in 2001.   Hillary's polling advantage had been substantial from the start and her large win should have been expected .... just as the Sander's victory was a given in New Hampshire.  But, Sanders made a serious dialogue mistake.  In numerous interviews, Bernie hinted that he was close to winning New York!  Once again, as he had done in South Carolina, Sanders raised expectations for his supporters. But, the tactic made no sense at all... so, maybe he believed it himself?  So, when he lost NY by 300,000 votes and 16 points, it was magnified into a crushing loss for Sanders - and, a momentum changer for Hillary. Had he not claimed the narrowing of polls and the possibility of winning New York, the loss would have been logged in as expected and so what?  Since NY, Bernie seems to be off his game a bit and facing his "loss" with deep disappointment.  His hoped-for "political revolution" just failed to materialize. In most states so far, voter turnout has been about the same as the last presidential or some percentages less.  Certainly, we have not seen the large voter turnouts that Sanders often makes reference to and counts on to get him the nomination.  Crowds may show up at his rallies, but voter turnout has been average at best so far.

Right now, the smart money is on the two front-runners: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, 2 New Yorkers.  Could it be that we are about to witness the very first modern presidential election pitting two candidates against each other, one Republican and one Democrat, believing in different policies, growing up in far different places and with life experiences quite dissimilar - but, both who call New York home - the Presidential version of a Subway Series?  If there is one thing that we have learned this primary season it is this: "It ain't over 'til it's over."

Stay tuned for the next round.....  tomorrow is yet another election day.... including Indiana!  

Thursday, April 7, 2016

INTO THE ABYSS????

Over the last several days, it seems as though both parties are edging ever closer to some serious self-inflicted wounds......

On the Republican side, the rhetoric - already high up on the nasty meter, seems to be soaring to even higher planes.  With some really, really, tepid "endorsements" for Cruz in Wisconsin from former opponents who are all characterized as heading down the endorsement path as though they were holding their collective noses as they were led down the isle by the Beltway "establishment", to the renewed assault on Cruz when he arrived in New York and got a real dose of  "New York values", it appears that we are headed for some real fireworks.  Perhaps the two candidates will produce so much incendiary commentary that they will burn the Republican House down to the ground by the time that they are through and arrive at their Convention.  Time will tell... but, with today's NY Post front page headline - "Cruz: Take the F U Train", and Trump turning up the heat at his opening rally in Long Island, the R side of the New York adventure looks HOT indeed.  The "Presidential" Trump response should define "NY values" as welcoming to legal immigrants, sensitive to the needs of those of modest income, offering opportunity to those willing to work for it, providing education to millions and millions of children from all backgrounds, courageous in the face of the attack on the World Trade Center, proud of their police and fire personnel, and building a world-class city filled with jobs, commerce, history, arts and everything that makes for a diverse city for others to model.

Meanwhile, the Democrats supporting Sanders got their own share of "red meat" with Sanders' attack on Clinton's "qualifications to be President."  Responding to a reported Clinton attack on Sanders qualifications for the office - that, by the way, didn't happen at all - the Sanders' statement damaged both campaigns as well as providing the Republicans with attack fodder for the fall.... BIG MISTAKE.  My guess is that Bernie Sanders had long ago instructed his campaign staff that they were not to attack Hillary and, instead run an issue-based campaign.  The goal of that was to be able to bring the party together for the fall, 2016 battle with as little self-inflicted damage as possible and to present a strong and united front against whoever the Republican Clown Car produced as their candidate.  But, now that the Sanders staff can see the possibility of actually BECOMING the nominee, they have been trying to find a way to get Bernie to take off the gloves.  So, the Sanders staff "spun" the Hillary comments in the Washington Post on Sanders' poorly thought out comments about how to "break-up the big banks" into a mis-characterization that she said Sanders was not qualified for the presidency.  Then, they sent him out to the microphones to respond while they had him stoked.  How do I know this?  I have been in campaigns for more than 25 years.... and, that is exactly what I would do! I needed my candidate to GET TOUGH!  In any case, just an educated guess...  Hillary, in responding to Bernie's attack on her "qualifications" for the highest office in the nation, handled it well, I thought.  Measured, calm, and supportive, she commented that Sanders would be - by far - a superior candidate to any Republican running and that she would support him in a New York minute and, enthusiastically should he become the Party nominee.  In any case, it's pretty clear that Hillary IS qualified for the office of the Presidency - perhaps more so by experience and temperament than any candidate in living memory.

Right now, Hillary holds a double-digit lead over Sanders among likely NY Democratic voters.  And, Trump - at 52% - with Kasich in second place and Cruz a dismal third at 17 %, is clearly in control so far.  Now, how is that for a New York value! If numbers like this hold, we could see a Presidential contest between 2 New Yorkers - Hillary and Donald.....  or Bernie and Donald? 

Monday, April 4, 2016

AND THE BEAT GOES ON....... Zombie Delegates?

As is obvious, there has been a lull in the action....  OK.. so, there are some "Trumpisms" to toy with...  But, I have come to see that these dumb-ass utterances are momentarily a hot-button (like, "punish women who get an abortion..." or, not taking dropping nukes in Europe off the table, or, leaving NATO, or, lets encourage Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear bombs/missiles) occupy a lot of talk time for a day or two or three... and then recede into the background noise of the campaign as other issues come front and center.  The issue that will continue right through the Republican Convention is the delegate selection process.....  and the potential for "Unbound" ZOMBIE DELEGATES and SUPER-DELEGATES to make or break a candidate.

We have all watched the gradual, state-by-state contests and the accumulation of delegates - sometimes in winner-take-all, sometimes proportionate splits, and sometimes in primaries, sometimes in caucus states.  One thing that we thought was sure, however, was that the delegates were pledged to one candidate or another.  So, maybe not past the first or second ballot at the convention, based on the state rules for delegate behavior - but, you win a delegate, then they vote for you.  So, what are the ZOMBIES?  Well... on the Democratic side, some "Zombie" delegates are present from the start.  They are called "Super-Delegates" and are selected under DNC rules and State Democratic Committee adopted Delegate Plans as approved by the DNC.  They are elected officials, DNC Members from that state, other party officials such as the State Democratic Chairman, and a handful of others "elected" by the State Committee in Convention.  These generally are self-pledged Delegates, are not elected by primaries or caucuses, and can vote for whoever they choose at any time, including the first ballot.  What does that mean?  If they are "pledged" to one candidate or another, are they not required to vote for that person?  Answer:  NO.  They are the only Delegates that can change their minds, drop their "pledge" and switch sides BEFORE the first ballot at the Convention.  And, that is what makes them SUPER-DELEGATES. If you ask does this really happen often?  The answer is no.  But, it can.  On the Democratic side, Hillary has a GIANT lead in pledged Delegates who were pledged long ago before they were assigned these positions and before the state parade of primaries and caucuses.  And, that is what "burns" Bernie.  His campaign is attempting to transform those "pledged" Delegates into Zombie delegates who are not pledged to anyone and are free to vote for Sanders.  Why would they consider doing that?  Simple from a Sanders point of view - if Sanders carried their state by, say... 10 or 20 points in the Democratic Primary in their home state, should these "Super" Delegates consider reflecting the will of the voters in their state or keep their blinders on and vote AGAINST the interest of their own primary voters?  Bernie argues that the answer is clear - these are at-large appointed Delegates and they should reflect the will of their electorate, regardless of who they may have been "pledged" to support.  So far, there are 158 Undeclared Delegates.  Hillary leads Bernie presently by 701 delegate votes including a Super-delegate count of 469 to 71.  If those numbers were reversed, subtracting say 375 from Hillary and counting them for Bernie, the count would be 1337 for Hillary and 1386 for Bernie!  See why Bernie is making the Super-delegate argument? Still, take the Super-delegates out altogether and Hillary leads 1243 Delegates to Bernie's 980 indicating the fact that Clinton has won 12% more Delegates in the rough and tumble of the primary process than Sanders to date (56 to 44). Add in the Super-delegates and you get a 26% difference - more than twice the elected Delegate spread.    

On the Republican side, ZOMBIE delegates are delegates to the convention that are currently not pledged to anyone.  In few states, delegates are simply appointed by the state Republican Committee without any pledge to vote for any particular candidate but to use their personal judgment to cast their ballot for the candidate that they believe best represents the Republican Party in their state and is better positioned to win in November.  These are "unbound" Delegates.  States that do this are Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, Guam, and American Samoa. Taken together, these ZOMBIES subject to recruitment by any candidate number 112 delegates - far higher than the 95 New York Delegates that the Donald plans to win in a few weeks. Another group of ZOMBIES are the collection of abandoned Delegates who were selected or elected to vote for candidates who "suspended' their campaigns.  These include Delegates elected for Rubio, Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, and Paul.  These "suspended" delegates number 26.  A real question is whether or not these delegates will follow the lead of their failed candidates - most of whom oppose Trump - or if they follow their own instincts.  With a close contest like this one, the answer to that question could really matter.  I would bet that the pressure is on these ZOMBIES to support one or another and that they have already disconnected their phones, pulled the shades, and turned off their cell phones in favor of a "burner" phone.  It wouldn't surprise me if they are presently hiding under the bed as well.

SUPERS or ZOMBIES - could be the key to the nominations in either or both parties.  Stay tuned....  Onto Wisconsin and their 42 (Rep) winner-take-all delegates and the Dems with 96 proportional both by State and Congressional District.  The present count is Trump - 736; Cruz - 463; Kasich - 158.  (1237 needed).  On the Dem side, presently, Clinton - 1712; Sanders - 1011; Uncommitted - 158. (2383 needed).