Ok, so Frank Sinatra was singing about New York as a place that could test the mettle of a person and challenge them in many ways. But, if they could make it there.... and, you know the rest. It seems that last week, both the Donald and Hillary "made it" quite well in New York. Crushing their opponents in the New York primary election, both Trump and Clinton scored major delegate victories in their respective elections. Let's take a quick look.
Donald Trump, born and raised in New York (Queens), is a well-known entity in the NY public arena. Often a focus of the tabloid and the mainstream press for decades, not to mention a TV star with his own shop - "The Apprentice," the Donald has had more than his share of ink and media coverage - some positive, some negative. As a pundit once said, it doesn't matter whether what they say is good or bad, as long as they are talking about you. It seems that this observation was well proven out during the current Republican election cycle. Hardly given any chance at all last summer when the campaign slowly began to take shape with some 17 candidates, Trump was the butt of cartoons and late-night talk-show jokes for weeks as most observers thought that his "candidacy" was nothing more than a public relations stunt designed to life Trump's public persona. Actually running for President? Nah! More likely a new TV series was in the planning stages and that this "candidacy" was a way to garner attention for act three of the Trump saga, having nothing to do with political office. At least, that is what most pundits believed back then. It was just so much fun to pretend that Trump was a serious candidate so much of talk TV had a great time exploring "Trump for President" tongue in cheek. Fast forward to today, and more and more it appears as though Trump has the Republican establishment on the ropes. Even if Trump does not gather the requisite number of delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot (1237), he will certainly enter the convention with far more delegates than any of his opponents. Right now, based on the primaries to come and current available poll data, it appears that Donald Trump will have near enough delegate votes and far more than any of the remaining two opposing candidates, Cruz and Kasich. Both the Cruz and the Kasich argument is, if Trump comes close but not over the line, then the delegates should select someone who Trump regularly beat in most states across the nation and gathered far fewer popular votes than the Donald. Or, maybe the delegates would select someone who didn't run in the primaries at all - say, Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney. Hey, how about the Chair of the Benghazi Committee - "Howdy" Dowdy? What does that scenario say to the largest block of committed supporters at the Convention - the Trump Delegates? I think that Donald is correct in his observation.... that, if the "rigged process" results in the abandonment of the Trump battle group, there will be "riots" in Cleveland.... and an exodus that will sink the Cruz Battleship and the Kasich Destroyer with it.
As a matter of fact, Cruz and Kasich have just now determined that they will "collude" (Trump's term for their joint plan) in a last ditch plan to prevent Trump from gaining the nomination BEFORE the convention. The deal - announced by Cruz who, evidently couldn't contain his excitement, used a press conference to proclaim the "deal" (did they both read Trump's book, "The Art of the Deal?"), reached by the two. Kasich abandons Indiana and Cruz stays out of New Mexico and Oregon. Cruz, excited at the prospect of taking on the Donald one-on-one, made it sound as though Kasich "abandoned" his Indiana delegates and supporters. Of course, Cruz is expecting that the Kasich supporters - delegate candidates and voters - will now vote for him. With the latest Indiana polls indicating that Trump is again double-digits ahead of both Cruz and Kasich, Cruz would need the Kasich voters to outlast Trump and score a victory here. Therefore, it must have been quite shocking for Cruz to discover that the first handful of Kasich Indiana supporters told local media outlets that they were suspicious of the "deal", felt "stranded" by Kasich and manipulated by Cruz. Asked who they would vote for as a second choice, they firmly said TRUMP, not Cruz. If this is indicative of a pattern among Kasich voters, then the conspirator's plot to add to the Cruz vote totals will fail and they will have, instead, boosted Trump to near or over the 50% mark! Should that occur in Indiana, Trump will be on his way to the nomination. This plot could turn out to be a self-inflicted and fatal wound to the Trump opponents.... they could be blowing themselves right out of the water if their respective supporters and voters, instead of turning to another non-Trump candidate, cast their votes and their lot with Trump. Ask yourself this - do you really think that the typical Kasich supporter is excited to vote for "Lyin' Ted Cruz?"
"There is no place like home," said Hillary in her victory speech on New York's election night as she scored a double-digit victory over Bernie Sanders. Of course, it was the place of Bernie Sander's birth but Hillary and Bill made the choice to make it their home after leaving the White House in 2001. Hillary's polling advantage had been substantial from the start and her large win should have been expected .... just as the Sander's victory was a given in New Hampshire. But, Sanders made a serious dialogue mistake. In numerous interviews, Bernie hinted that he was close to winning New York! Once again, as he had done in South Carolina, Sanders raised expectations for his supporters. But, the tactic made no sense at all... so, maybe he believed it himself? So, when he lost NY by 300,000 votes and 16 points, it was magnified into a crushing loss for Sanders - and, a momentum changer for Hillary. Had he not claimed the narrowing of polls and the possibility of winning New York, the loss would have been logged in as expected and so what? Since NY, Bernie seems to be off his game a bit and facing his "loss" with deep disappointment. His hoped-for "political revolution" just failed to materialize. In most states so far, voter turnout has been about the same as the last presidential or some percentages less. Certainly, we have not seen the large voter turnouts that Sanders often makes reference to and counts on to get him the nomination. Crowds may show up at his rallies, but voter turnout has been average at best so far.
Right now, the smart money is on the two front-runners: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, 2 New Yorkers. Could it be that we are about to witness the very first modern presidential election pitting two candidates against each other, one Republican and one Democrat, believing in different policies, growing up in far different places and with life experiences quite dissimilar - but, both who call New York home - the Presidential version of a Subway Series? If there is one thing that we have learned this primary season it is this: "It ain't over 'til it's over."
Stay tuned for the next round..... tomorrow is yet another election day.... including Indiana!
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