As is obvious, there has been a lull in the action.... OK.. so, there are some "Trumpisms" to toy with... But, I have come to see that these dumb-ass utterances are momentarily a hot-button (like, "punish women who get an abortion..." or, not taking dropping nukes in Europe off the table, or, leaving NATO, or, lets encourage Japan and South Korea to develop their own nuclear bombs/missiles) occupy a lot of talk time for a day or two or three... and then recede into the background noise of the campaign as other issues come front and center. The issue that will continue right through the Republican Convention is the delegate selection process..... and the potential for "Unbound" ZOMBIE DELEGATES and SUPER-DELEGATES to make or break a candidate.
We have all watched the gradual, state-by-state contests and the accumulation of delegates - sometimes in winner-take-all, sometimes proportionate splits, and sometimes in primaries, sometimes in caucus states. One thing that we thought was sure, however, was that the delegates were pledged to one candidate or another. So, maybe not past the first or second ballot at the convention, based on the state rules for delegate behavior - but, you win a delegate, then they vote for you. So, what are the ZOMBIES? Well... on the Democratic side, some "Zombie" delegates are present from the start. They are called "Super-Delegates" and are selected under DNC rules and State Democratic Committee adopted Delegate Plans as approved by the DNC. They are elected officials, DNC Members from that state, other party officials such as the State Democratic Chairman, and a handful of others "elected" by the State Committee in Convention. These generally are self-pledged Delegates, are not elected by primaries or caucuses, and can vote for whoever they choose at any time, including the first ballot. What does that mean? If they are "pledged" to one candidate or another, are they not required to vote for that person? Answer: NO. They are the only Delegates that can change their minds, drop their "pledge" and switch sides BEFORE the first ballot at the Convention. And, that is what makes them SUPER-DELEGATES. If you ask does this really happen often? The answer is no. But, it can. On the Democratic side, Hillary has a GIANT lead in pledged Delegates who were pledged long ago before they were assigned these positions and before the state parade of primaries and caucuses. And, that is what "burns" Bernie. His campaign is attempting to transform those "pledged" Delegates into Zombie delegates who are not pledged to anyone and are free to vote for Sanders. Why would they consider doing that? Simple from a Sanders point of view - if Sanders carried their state by, say... 10 or 20 points in the Democratic Primary in their home state, should these "Super" Delegates consider reflecting the will of the voters in their state or keep their blinders on and vote AGAINST the interest of their own primary voters? Bernie argues that the answer is clear - these are at-large appointed Delegates and they should reflect the will of their electorate, regardless of who they may have been "pledged" to support. So far, there are 158 Undeclared Delegates. Hillary leads Bernie presently by 701 delegate votes including a Super-delegate count of 469 to 71. If those numbers were reversed, subtracting say 375 from Hillary and counting them for Bernie, the count would be 1337 for Hillary and 1386 for Bernie! See why Bernie is making the Super-delegate argument? Still, take the Super-delegates out altogether and Hillary leads 1243 Delegates to Bernie's 980 indicating the fact that Clinton has won 12% more Delegates in the rough and tumble of the primary process than Sanders to date (56 to 44). Add in the Super-delegates and you get a 26% difference - more than twice the elected Delegate spread.
On the Republican side, ZOMBIE delegates are delegates to the convention that are currently not pledged to anyone. In few states, delegates are simply appointed by the state Republican Committee without any pledge to vote for any particular candidate but to use their personal judgment to cast their ballot for the candidate that they believe best represents the Republican Party in their state and is better positioned to win in November. These are "unbound" Delegates. States that do this are Colorado, Wyoming, North Dakota, Guam, and American Samoa. Taken together, these ZOMBIES subject to recruitment by any candidate number 112 delegates - far higher than the 95 New York Delegates that the Donald plans to win in a few weeks. Another group of ZOMBIES are the collection of abandoned Delegates who were selected or elected to vote for candidates who "suspended' their campaigns. These include Delegates elected for Rubio, Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, and Paul. These "suspended" delegates number 26. A real question is whether or not these delegates will follow the lead of their failed candidates - most of whom oppose Trump - or if they follow their own instincts. With a close contest like this one, the answer to that question could really matter. I would bet that the pressure is on these ZOMBIES to support one or another and that they have already disconnected their phones, pulled the shades, and turned off their cell phones in favor of a "burner" phone. It wouldn't surprise me if they are presently hiding under the bed as well.
SUPERS or ZOMBIES - could be the key to the nominations in either or both parties. Stay tuned.... Onto Wisconsin and their 42 (Rep) winner-take-all delegates and the Dems with 96 proportional both by State and Congressional District. The present count is Trump - 736; Cruz - 463; Kasich - 158. (1237 needed). On the Dem side, presently, Clinton - 1712; Sanders - 1011; Uncommitted - 158. (2383 needed).
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