Who is that, anyway? While most of the Republican primary gang has been "Trumpified" over the past several months including Governors, Senators, and other insider figures, there persists a hidden group of "establishment" figures who have directed a substantial effort to derail the Trump Train through massive anti-Trump TV ads, radio ads, robo-calls from Mitt Romney and others, mail and personal visits. These men "behind the curtain" are in the death throws of the Republican "establishment" of fat-cats on K street and the political consultant class who have become financially fat and happy over the past 30 years or so. Their brand of the Republican Party has evolved over that time and has become more and more right wing and more distant from the rank and file, average voters. That enabled them to keep a grip on the party apparatus, and to hand-pick candidates, recommend appointments, craft strategy, raise cash, and enrich themselves along the way. No great shock that they will do whatever it takes to maintain the current "order" as well as their positions of leadership in that order. Donald Trump just does not represent them and, apparently, that may be the secret of his appeal. The most recent "stand" of the Republican Beltway Illuminati took place in Florida where one favorite son - Jeb Bush - had already been demolished by the Trump juggernaut, leaving the other favorite son - Marco Rubio - to carry on the fight. When the fog of war and the smoke of battle cleared on primary night, Donald Trump carried every Florida county in the state except one - Rubio's home county of Dade. No surprise, therefore, that Rubio took himself out of the race for the nomination and suspended his campaign that night. And, then there were three.....
Still, the "establishment" plotting continues.... Their candidates had included Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio, and a trial balloon of two with some others - now all out of the race. It appears that being defined as the candidate of the "establishment" is a near or even sure kiss of death. It certainly labels the designated candidate as yet another person bent on denying the will of the Republican primary electorate in preventing their selection - Donald Trump - from capturing the nomination of the party. If the party "leaders" turn around only to find that their "followers" are marching to the beat of a different drummer and heading elsewhere, it may be time to change direction or simply get out of the way. Leaders can only lead if they have followers. And, every new attempt to frustrate the selection of their voters by hatching yet another sub-plot to deny the will of the majority will only deepen resentment and increase the seismic pressure underscoring the volcanic explosion that is sure to take place in Cincinnati at their Convention. Quite the dangerous game....
Of course, all of the more recent plots depend on a strategy of getting to the Convention without Trump having the requisite number of delegate, votes to secure the nomination. If Trump gathers enough votes before that time, which is certainly more possible than Cruz or Kasich getting to the magic number, all bets are off and Trump will be the nominee. So, the first step is to frustrate Trump by somehow preventing him from getting to the secure delegate count. Will Christie's endorsement and Ben Carson's support add a few delegates? Where do the Rubio delegates go? Only time will tell if they release their delegates and are able to convince them to support Trump, another candidate, or whoever their personal choice might be.
The most recent trial balloon was floated by former House Speaker John Boehner who suggested that an "open" Convention could select Paul Ryan as the Party Nominee. Speaker Ryan quickly shot down that idea.... or, did he really. After all, he "shut down" any interest in becoming Speaker just a few months ago... and, finally agreed to take the position when he was drafted. Could the same happen in Cleveland? And, if something along those lines occurred, what would be the reaction of the Trump delegates? Just yesterday, The Donald said in response to that very question, that a riot was more likely than not if the will of the people was frustrated. Meanwhile, today more meetings are being held in the Beltway by self-described Conservatives to explore their options. These include stopping Donald Trump from getting the delegates necessary and manipulating the Convention process or, should Trump succeed and become the Republican Nominee, to quickly create a Conservative third party effort and run their own candidate in the fall, effectively splitting the Republican Party. Still, if the "establishment" plot was to succeed and Trump was denied the nomination because he was short a handful of delegate votes though far and away ahead of anyone else, would the predicted "riot" result in a walkout of the Trump parade who would then march to their own version of a third party effort? Or, will some Conservative leaders support Hillary as a way to prevent a Trump Presidency? Phew! Stay tuned.... this is going to be quite the ride!
My take is that Donald Trump will either gather enough delegate votes to win the nomination on the first ballot and become the Republican Presidential Nominee or he will come so close that it will become impossible to deny him the nomination. No matter how you slice it, the Cleveland Convention could be the most raucous political event in our lifetime.... and, spell the death knell of the Republican Party of our fathers.
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