We may be witnessing a historic re-alignment of the Republican brand in this race. In the 1964 race, the Conservative Party, once a totally separate entity who regularly lost elections as a third party alternative to the progressive Democrats and the moderate-to-conservative Republican candidates, succeeded in seizing the Republican party apparatus with the nomination of Barry Goldwater as their presidential candidate. Although he was crushed in the election by Democrat Lyndon Johnson, the scales had been tipped to the more conservative wing of the Republican Party. From that point, with the intervening candidacies of Ron Reagan, and the Bushes, the right-wing was inside the tent and slowly securing a more dominant role in party policy and campaigns. With the emergence of right-wing talk radio and the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity, and others, a torrent of talk and bombast against the federal government's role in our lives became the issue. And, through a program of starvation through fiscal restraint and program cuts, the dismantling of the "Great Society" programs of the 60's and even attacks on earlier "New Deal" programs such as Social Security, defined the "new" Republican Party. The radical right, continuing it's assault on the central government, took the House with Newt Gingrich in 1994 and launched multiple attacks on program after program, slashing funding, and, ultimately brought on threats of government debt defaults and the first shut-down of the federal government in modern history - all to prove that the absence of the government didn't matter in the daily lives of average Americans. For the next 20 years right through today, the voices of the radical right-wing - Tea Party included - have railed against the mere existence of the federal government. The result is partisan gridlock, the inability of the federal government to perform their historic role in solving problems and addressing issues that face the nation and a general disrespect for the national institutions that are the symbols of the federal role in governance - the Congress, the Presidency, and the Federal Court system - the national institutional architecture. And, that is why the Congress sits at single-digit approval ratings - the lowest in modern history - and continues its total refusal of the legislative branch to seek common policy ground with the executive branch. The predictable result is right-wing encouragement of total disregard for federal authority as recently witnessed in the land-grab in Utah by local ranchers armed to the teeth. The lies and exaggerations used by the right - "Death Panels", "the Death Tax", the government plan to confiscate all guns, that Obama would change the law to become the permanent President, the Clinton's murdered Vince Foster, and other absurd statements or rumors circulated by talk-radio - have undermined and chipped away at the legitimacy of the federal government for decades. And, their goal of dismantling the Federal role in the architecture of American government as outlined and intended in the US Constitution continues. Enter Donald Trump.
Trump throws Republican right-wing orthodoxy on guns, the choice issue, foreign policy, and a variety of social programs, including Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and others right out the window, without hesitation. And, that gives rise to the charge from his opponents that he is really not a true conservative, now well practiced in its extreme right form. In spite of that contrast, Trump carries state after state and may very well become the Republican nominee by summer. If he doesn't gather the requisite number of delegates to win outright on the first ballot, perhaps he can add those delegates pledged to Chris Christie or Ben Carson, though just a relative handful, and, they could tip the balance. If, on the other hand, Trump arrives far in the lead but short of the magic number required, and is then denied through some "establishment" back-room deals and Party Rule maneuvers, we may witness a split and a war within the Republican ranks that holds the potential to destroy the party altogether, perhaps leading to several minor parties - the Tea Party, Conservative Party, the Wing-Nut Party, Evangelical Party, the Endless War Party, the Oligarchs Party headed by Trump, and the few remaining Republican moderates in the decimated wasteland and rubble of the 20th Century Republican Party. But, however many or few warring camps result, that pretty much guarantees the election of the Democratic Nominee. But, which one? Hillary? Or, will we all "feel the Bern?"
After all of this, will the Democratic Nomination come down to a coin toss as well? Will the later-voting states like New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and California tip the balance on the Dem side? Can it be that Sanders will carry Ohio and the Mid-west rust belt states as he did Michigan and deny Hillary a clear majority on the first ballot? Is it possible that the huge lead that Hillary has in the Super Delegate count - who are free to change their votes at any time unlike Pledged Delegates - will change to better reflect the votes in their states? Might they abstain on the first ballot and throw the Democratic Convention into turmoil and yet another divisive convention floor fight? Have I entered the Twilight Zone???? Hillary, though close, does not have the nomination locked up yet and Bernie's position on trade deals is catching fire... Will that resonate in places like New York and New Jersey? Pennsylvania? Will the youth vote drag themselves off campus and get to the polls to sink Hillary on a lark and , instead, support a mid-70's "democratic socialist" from Brooklyn? Will young women fail to learn the lessons of the past and refuse to break the biggest glass ceiling ever breached? Will the FBI intervene on Hillary's e-mails? And, can Bernie really, really, capture the nomination? If so, can Bernie win against Trump? Remember that Hillary's polling numbers also reflect the 20+ years of constant Republican and Right Wing assault on her since her days in the White House as well as her years in the Senate and then as President Obama's Secretary of State. How would Bernie's numbers stack up after just 6 months of political assault on his policies, history, ethics, and character should he become the Nominee? Would he crumble or fight back with skill? Could the Presidential election become an epic struggle of the oligarchs against working men and women? Phew! How wild can this get?
No comments:
Post a Comment