Thursday, November 10, 2016

IT'S A TRUMPWORLD AFTERALL..... AND, WHO IS THAT MAN BEHIND THE CURTIN?

Sorry for the delay in posting... I am just recovering from the shock of election night.  Now, at E-Day plus 2 I am still numb....  and, having a difficult time envisioning a Trump presidency.  With just 70+ days until the Donald is crowned as the leader of the free world, I think about what to do with the time left until that day arrives.  Part of me wants to begin to pack up to head for somewhere else - say, Canada, or some Caribbean Island far off the beaten path....  And, the optimistic side of me sees the protest marches that took place across America last night (at E-Day plus 1), and I think that there is still hope and that I should stay around for the good fight in defense of our democracy.  For me, this is still an open question.

I heard the very gracious concession speech delivered by Hillary yesterday - a true moment of calm in the face of the coming storm, and I heard the President deliver his transition cooperation statement as well.  Both President Obama and Hillary Clinton were generous and uplifting. They conveyed just the right theme in a continuous thread in US history of the peaceful hand-over of power following a vigorous campaign and election process.  To his credit, Donald Trump, now the President-elect, also delivered a reasonable victory speech, measured and conciliatory.  This election, somewhat like the Gore/Bush election, ended in a split decision, with one candidate winning the majority of the popular vote and the other winning the presidency courtesy of the mechanics of the electoral vote.  However, unlike Gore/Bush, the broader governmental picture reflects total Republican control of all of the levers of power in Washington with their control of the House, the Senate, the Presidency, and - soon to become - control of the US Supreme Court through Trump appointments to that body.  What comes next will be quite the ride - or will it?

In the closing scene of the 1972 film, "The Candidate", Robert Redford's character, Bill McKay, after winning a narrow victory for a California US Senate seat, asks his campaign manager, "what do we do now?"  In 2016, Trump might ask the very same question of his campaign staff. Or, the question might be, "who is that man behind the curtain?" Given that the Trump campaign had few specific policy positions or proposals and, insofar as the entire Trump ascendancy throughout the primaries and the general election was more a reflection of a populist, nationalistic, xenophobic, anti-trade- deals campaign and not a typical conservative orthodoxy of budget cuts, tax cuts (though there is that), decreasing the deficit, cutting social programs and privatizing Social Security to name a few. In fact, if the Trump "program" as alluded to during the campaign - replacing Obamacare with a better system, expanding and increasing Social Security and other social supports, a dramatic expansion of military and infrastructure spending, and building a multi-billion dollar southern border wall were to become his initial policy agenda, the traditional conservative Republicans in the Congress will have their hair on fire.  And - just maybe - should that occur, a new coalition might be formed - between a mix of Republicans who recognize that the "old" Republican party policy prescriptions were eclipsed by Donald Trump and that the 2016 Trump Republican Party is a populist version of uplifting the downtrodden and abandoned working families who felt left behind by the Beltway, and a bunch of liberal Democrats who see a path for progress that had previously been blocked by the Tea Party and their allies.

Right now, Paul Ryan and his conservative allies are positioning themselves as though their slash and burn Tea Party agenda will sail through Congress and will be quickly signed by President Trump. Maybe they are right.... but, perhaps not.  I guess that I will stick around to find out the answer to that question.  After all, there is always Canada......   

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